Jerry Jeudy Breakout: Week 10 Rookie Stock Update
With the 15th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Denver Broncos select Jerry Jeudy, Alabama.
It’s been slow going for Jeudy but he hit big in week 10 with career highs all over the place and one of the sweetest routes you’ll see all season for his second career touchdown.
A difficult week 9 for some of the ‘stud’ rookie running backs so Jeudy’s performance was a welcome bright spot.
Dynasty Rankings!
As always, I’m going to look at how the opportunities are developing for the rookies and speculate on their outlook for the rest of the season.
Here is the Week 10 rookie stock update.
Starters
Quarterback
- Joe Burrow (BYE)
- Justin Herbert
- Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Herbert
- 4,599 – Herbert’s current yardage pace for the season just keeps creeping up. We’re waiting for the inevitable fall off but it just isn’t coming
- 41 – and that’s the total TDs he’s on pace to score (including rushing TDs). On a per-game basis that puts him behind only Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray
- QB5 – his current per-game position on the season so far
Outlook: We’re waiting for a down game that is bound to happen to a rookie at some point, but it just isn’t happening. Leave him in your QB1 slot and focus on your other positions, you’re set for now
Tua Tagovailoa
- 28 – a solid outing for Tua, throwing the ball 28 times after a more sedate debut in week 9. That’s still fairly low but expect this to increase a touch as he settles in
- 71 – a 71-percent completion rate for 248 yards and 2 passing touchdowns in addition to 35 yards on the ground. That’s the stuff!
- Preston Williams – as always with a new quarterback, we look to see who his primary target is and it sure looked like Preston Williams. A shame the injury took him out of the game and we’ll see what impact that has moving forward
Outlook: I said last week to see how he goes in a competitive game and he didn’t disappoint. I don’t think you can trust him as a starter in 1QB leagues just yet but keep an eye on him
Running Back
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Jonathan Taylor
- Antonio Gibson
- Joshua Kelley
- D’Andre Swift
- JK Dobbins
- James Robinson
- Cam Akers (BYE)
- Zack Moss
- La’Mical Perine
Clyde Edwards-Helaire |
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| Snaps | 25 (40-percent) | Last Week: 33 (50-percent) |
| Carries | 5 (42-percent) | Last Week: 6 (30-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 1 (33-percent) | Last week: 0 |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 | Last week: 0 |
| Targets | 5 (11-percent) | Last week: 3 (6-percent of team total) |
- 12 – that’s how many times the Chiefs ran the ball. Five carries isn’t going to get it done for CEH but he is the main back for the Chiefs, there’s no doubt about that. The problem is that they just aren’t running the ball
- 63 – the good news is that CEH got 63-percent of the running back opportunities (carries + targets), that’s up from 50-percent in week 8. The Chiefs also mixed in Darrel Williams so its clear that Bell isn’t a scary prospect to contend with
- 3 – that’s the total of team’s Redzone carries. One of those went to Tyreek Hill and one to Mahomes. CEH was the only back to get a carry down there but it wasn’t inside the 10 so there’s still a lack of desire to use him (or any back for that matter) in those situations
Outlook: This should have been a smash game against the Panthers but it wasn’t to be. I’m buoyed by Bell not establishing himself as a force and the passing usage is helping to prop him up. He’s on a bye in week 10 and has a mix of good and bad fixtures down the stretch. He’s a mid-range RB2
Jonathan Taylor |
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| Snaps | 21 (31-percent) | Last Week: 26 (34-percent) |
| Carries | 6 (29-percent) | Last Week: 11 (28-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 3 (100-percent) | Last Week: 1 (20-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (100-percent) | Last Week: 1 (25-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 2 (5-percent) | Last Week: 3 (9-percent of team total) |
- 31 – in week 8, his 34-percent of snaps was his season-low. Now he’s beaten that by getting only 31-percent of snaps in week 9. No injury nonsense like last week, he’s just in a rotation with Wilkins and Hines, with all three having an almost exact three-way split of time
- 8 – 8 opportunities (carries + targets) is his lowest by far. He had been getting between 14 and 18 over the previous four games but this was way down
- 100 – he did get 100-percent of the redzone carries and a goal-line touchdown, and that’s great for the outlook on his role
Outlook: Despite a big time fumble that cost his team points, Taylor was back in the game not long after so I don’t buy that this impacted his playing time significantly. I believe this was a gamescript issue and that Taylor will still be the main back when they’re not chasing points. I understand a lack of confidence but his usage in the redzone is encouraging and I’ll still be rolling him out as an RB2 with hopes of a touchdown
Week 9 One-to-Watch: Antonio Gibson
Antonio Gibson |
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| Snaps | 25 (46-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Carries | 6 (67-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Redzone carries | 3 (100-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (100-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Targets | 3 (8-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
- 100 – Gibson’s stats here look remarkably like Jonathan Taylor’s and, like Taylor, he got 100-percent of the carries inside the redzone, including a touchdown
- Gamescript – also similar to Taylor, Gibson’s usage is clearly gamescript-driven. When Washington are in the game, they can run the ball and Gibson is the man for the job. But they get behind and that’s where JD McKissic comes in. For this one, Washington just didn’t run the ball. I went back as far as 1946 to find a game where they’ve had less rush attempts…I didn’t find one
- Alex Smith – after Smith came in the game and Washington were trailing, it was dump-off city to JD McKissic, with Smith’s Intended Air Yards per Attempt at only 3.3! There’s two ways to look at this. Glass half-empty: Smith likes McKissic, he will be the safety valve and Gibson won’t get a look in. Glass half-full: if Washington can stay close in games and have some balance between the pass and the run, then Smith will still dump off in passing situations and Gibson might just be on the field for those
Outlook: Same deal with Gibson. He’s a mid/low RB2 that you’re hoping gets a touchdown. If you can find a game that you think Washington can stay competitive in, roll him out with confidence – on that note, they have the Lions, Bengals and Cowboys in the next three weeks…
Joshua Kelley |
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| Snaps | 43 (54-percent) | Last Week: 21 (24-percent) |
| Carries | 9 (29-percent) | Last Week: 7 (18-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 0 | Last Week: 1 (100-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 | Last Week: 0 (team total = 0) |
| Targets | 5 (12-percent) | Last Week: 1 (2-percent of team total) |
- 59 – his highest yardage total since week 2, off the back of much improved snap, carry and target totals compared to the previous couple of weeks BUT….
- Kalen Ballage – Justin Jackson went out injured on the first play and that’s likely the reason for Kelley’s increased usage. Despite that, the Chargers turned to Kalen Ballage to lead proceedings. It was Troymaine Pope last week, Kalen Ballage this week, the Chargers clearly aren’t sold on Kelley’s ability to lead this backfield
Outlook: If you’re still holding on to him in the hopes of a miracle, don’t. Roster spots are too important, drop him
D’Andre Swift |
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| Snaps | 30 (40-percent) | Last Week: 38 (62-percent) |
| Carries | 13 (48-percent) | Last Week: 6 (46-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 1 (33-percent) | Last Week: 0 (team total = 0) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (33-percent) | Last Week: 0 (team total = 0) |
| Targets | 5 (11-percent) | Last Week: 4 (10-percent of team total) |
- 13 – for two weeks in a row now he’s led the team in carries. The Lions only ran the ball 13 times in week 8, Swift got that total on his own in week 9
- 40 – his 40-percent snap share is down from week 8 as the other backs still mix in. It’s a timeshare in Detroit, but Swift is the leader of it
- Schedule – 3 out of the next 5 games are against bottom 4 defenses against running backs (the 4th team actually being Detroit so he can’t play against them!)
Outlook: I’m still buying Swift if I can. He’s in a split backfield but there’s not many that aren’t these days and he leads his. He gets the passing downs work and his schedule has some great matchups upcoming. I’m starting him with confidence as an RB2
JK Dobbins |
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| Snaps | 36 (56-percent) | Last Week: 54 (66-percent) |
| Carries | 12 (32-percent) | Last Week: 15 (32-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 3 (27-percent) | Last Week: 1 (10-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (13-percent) | Last Week: 0 |
| Targets | 2 (9-percent) | Last Week: 2 (7-percent of team total) |
- 35 – Indianapolis are a tough defense but 35 total yards is all we got from Dobbins in week 9
- Split – this is a still a split backfield, even without Ingram. It was almost an exact 3-way split between Dobbins, Edwards and Lamar for the second week in a row. Edwards is still the first and second down back, and the short yardage/goal-line back despite a fumble
- Consistent role – expanding on this backfield split, Dobbins has received 32-percent of the carries and 2 targets for two weeks in a row. This could just be his role and the games he produces are the ones where he breaks off a big play
Outlook: Last week’s explosive performance didn’t lead to an increase in workload but he did outsnap the Gus Bus. Ingram could be back soon and it will get even messier. In the meantime, he’s not someone I’m thrilled about starting and finds himself in the boom or bust category
James Robinson |
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| Snaps | 50 (72-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Carries | 25 (93-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Redzone carries | 6 (86-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (100-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Targets | 2 (5-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
- Workhorse – Robinson is the sole workhorse back in this offense, only ceding carries to the Quarterback and the occasional look from Chris Thompson. That’s good for 20+ touches and he was only one yard short of 100 yards on the ground in week 9
- Targets – Jake Luton ladies and gentleman. As promised by those in the know, he’s happy to chuck it and that’s bad for Robinson’s role in the receiving game. Without Minstache dumping the ball off to him 5 times per game, Robinson’s targets dropped to 2 and this was his first game of the season without a catch
- Schedule – a bit of a mixed bag of upcoming schedule for Robinson with the Packers being a smash start next week and a handful of reasonable matchups ahead. However, he has the Steelers (ranked 4th against RBs) in week 11, the number one ranked Ravens in week 15 and the 14th ranked Bears in week 16. That could be a problem for your fantasy playoffs
Outlook: Robinson is still an RB1 and his workhorse status makes him a sure-fire starter. If you’re looking good for playoffs and there’s another back in the same range that you think you can trade him for, I’d make those enquiries before your trade deadline looms
Zack Moss |
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| Snaps | 38 (56-percent) | Last Week: 31 (53-percent) |
| Carries | 9 (47-percent) | Last Week: 14 (37-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 2 (29-percent) | Last Week: 6 (67-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (25-percent) | Last Week: 4 (67-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 2 (5-percent) | Last Week: 1 (6-percent of team total) |
- 30-40 – other than his first game back from injury, Moss’ snap count has been consistently in that range and that’s what we should expect from him
- Singletary – week 8 was a 50-50 split. Week 9 was very much the Zack Moss show in the backfield. It didn’t really lead to much and Singletary still gets a few targets but Moss saw the bulk of the workload. The problem is that the Bills don’t run the ball well and so you still don’t get the production you need for consistent fantasy numbers
- Schedule – I keep saying it but it’s important to reiterate. Buffalo’s schedule for running backs is brutal from here out including the Chargers, 49ers, Steelers and Broncos after their week 11 bye
Outlook: He’s taking more of the backfield work from Singletary but Josh Allen caps his upside and he’s a poor man’s Todd Gurley, with inefficient production and hopes of touchdowns to save your day. I don’t want to play him unless I’m desperate, see if you can sell him to a running-back needy team before it’s too late
La’Mical Perine |
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| Snaps | 21 (46-percent) | Last Week: 28 (49-percent) |
| Carries | 6 (33-percent) | Last Week: 8 (32-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 1 (100-percent) | Last Week: 0 (team total = 0) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 (team total = 0) | Last Week: 0 (team total = 0) |
| Targets | 2 (8-percent) | Last Week: 2 (7-percent of team total) |
- Gross – this backfield is gross and carries no real value for your fantasy team. His snap share is similar to Gore’s so he’s getting his share of opportunity but at 8 touches for 38 yards, that’s not helping anyone
- Redzone – we’re never going to know if he’s any good at the goal-line because the Jets just don’t get there. Is he the goal-line back? Is it Frank Gore? It just doesn’t matter
Outlook: Leave well alone. If you have him, drop him. If he’s on waivers, keep walking
Wide Receiver
- Jerry Jeudy
- CeeDee Lamb
- Laviska Shenault
- Brandon Aiyuk (COVID-IR)
- Justin Jefferson
- Tee Higgins (BYE)
- Henry Ruggs
- Chase Claypool
- Denzel Mims
- KJ Hamler
- Jalen Reagor (BYE)
- Michael Pittman Jr
- Gabriel Davis
- Bryan Edwards
Jerry Jeudy
- Career day – 61 snaps, 14 targets, 7 catches and 125 yards are all career highs for Jeudy
- 50-percent – but he still only caught 50-percent of his passes, averaging 49-percent on the season. The targets are there, the ability is there, he just needs to bring the ball in
- Atlanta – it was the Falcons. Just remember that please. I’m hopeful for him and this could absolutely be his breakout game but it wasn’t exactly a tough secondary. Having said that, did you see him sell that route on his touchdown catch?! Well played sir, well played.
Outlook: A great game from Jeudy but I’m still in the WR3 range with him until I see him do it against a better opponent
CeeDee Lamb
- 53-percent snap count – its now four of the last five games with less than 40 snaps. In the last two weeks in particular, the Cowboys have shifted more to 12 personnel (presumably to protect whichever dodgy Quarterback is under centre) and it’s Lamb who suffers from that
- 1 touchdown – first touchdown since week 4 is great to see to go with his 4 catches and 71 yards. If you were brave enough to start him, you got a reasonable PPR return
- Andy Dalton – there’s a bye and then Dalton should be back at the helm. Not sure if this is necessarily a good thing for Lamb who got a goose-egg in his last game with the Red Rifle
Outlook: You can keep holding him on your bench for now and plug him in where you’re short. There’s a hope they come out of the bye on the same page but if you’re struggling for starters in week 10, don’t feel too bad about dropping him
Laviska Shenault
- Injured – Shenault was injured early in this one
Outlook: Keep an eye on the injury reports. If he plays, he’s a boom or bust pick
Justin Jefferson
- 4 targets, 3 receptions – that’s his stat line for the past two weeks. He did turn it into 64 yards this week which is better than week 8, but it’s not going to win you your matchup
- Run, run, run – this Vikings team just runs the ball so damn much and that is killing Jefferson’s production
- Shoot-outs – the three games where Jefferson has produced were shoot-outs. Chicago, Dallas, Carolina, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Chicago and New Orleans. If you think any of those are going to be shoot-outs then you should play him but you’re braver than me
Outlook: He’s dropping down the list and needs the gamescript to change dramatically for him to produce. The way Dalvin Cook is playing, the Vikings are going to keep riding him to the hills. He’s a WR3 for me
Henry Ruggs
- 1 point – his 10 yards rushing gave you his only fantasy point of the week with 0 receptions from his 3 targets in the passing game
- 78-percent of snaps – to drive home how bad that was, he was on the field. This wasn’t an injury or a gamescript or anything like that. He was on the field and he did nothing
- No more excuses – three in a row now. Week 7 was a tough Tampa defense, week 8 was the wind. There’s no excuse for week 9 and I’m done trying to find them
Outlook: Drop him in redraft, he’s no use to you. Sure he’s going to have a boom week where he scores but it’s not worth the risk of letting him destroy your lineups every week
Week 9 One-to-Watch: Chase Claypool
Chase Claypool
- 81-percent of snaps – a season-high for Claypool but still third on the team at the wide receiver position
- 13 targets – only 8 receptions for 69 yards but the targets and receptions are season-highs and for the second week in a row he was the target leader on his team
- Schedule – Cincinnati and Jacksonville in their next two games. Play him
Outlook: This would probably be close to his floor based on his current playing time and target share. He’ll have games like this and, like most receivers, you really need the touchdowns to make it pay. Keep him in your lineups for the next two weeks at least
Denzel Mims
- 96-percent – that’s two weeks in a row he’s played 96-percent of the snaps. He’s a full time player and a key piece in this offense moving forward
- 62 yards – he finally broke the 42 yard duck but despite getting a 32-percent target share, those 8 targets only led to 4 catches and 62 yards
- It’s the Jets – lets see who is under centre in the next game and whether he can become their trusted target. But at the end of the day, this is the Jets and you’ll be lucky to get anything decent out of him on a regular basis
Outlook: Tanking for Trevor is the way to go in New York and whether it’s deliberate or not, that means there’s not much fantasy production to expect from Mims at this stage. Stash him if you have spare bench spots but don’t worry if not
KJ Hamler
- 21-percent – 10 targets was enough for a 21-percent target share and led to 6 catches for 75 yards, a career best
- Tim Patrick – even more encouraging was the usage of Hamler coming with Tim Patrick also on the field. This wasn’t an injury-replacement game, this was straight up production
- Rushing and Returning – Hamler also got a carry in this game as well as a kick return and a punt return. This extra bit of usage is intriguing and could provide some increased upside
Outlook: Great volume but this was Atlanta he was playing. An intriguing option to keep an eye on, pick him up in deeper leagues but put him on your watchlist everywhere else
Michael Pittman Jr
- 7 targets – the joint leader on his team in targets with Marcus Johnson. This was his career-high target total so far and bodes well now he’s fully fit again
- 56 yards – not a great return for the 7 target investment and that led the team for receiving yards in this one. Yuk
- 2 touchdowns – sorry, no, not from Pittman. That’s how many touchdowns the entire WR corps has had so far this season. It’s all going to the tight ends and the running backs, and that puts a significant cap on Pittman’s upside
Outlook: Targets are encouraging but he’s a very low desperation option in deeper leagues only. Pick him up if he’s available in dynasty (which I doubt)
Gabriel Davis
- 4th in snaps – he’s 4th on the team in snaps but still gets a healthy 47-percent and in this game he was 3rd in targets
- 3 touchdowns – his touchdown this week makes it 3 on the year, which isn’t bad for a bit-part player
- 17 PPR points – a great return if you played him in a deeper league
Outlook: He’s definitely carved out a role but it’s inconsistent and unpredictable. There’s no need to roster him in redraft but he’s always a sneaky cheap option in DFS
Bryan Edwards
- 1st game back – 1 snap and 0 targets in his first game back
Outlook: No need to roster him in redraft
Injury Issues
- Darrynton Evans (RB)
Backup – not this year without an injury
- Jordan Love (QB) – inactive
- Jalen Hurts (QB) – bye
- Jacob Eason (QB) – inactive
- James Morgan (QB) – inactive
- Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB) – inactive
- Anthony McFarland Jr (RB) – 8 snaps, 3 carries for 7 yards and 2 catches for 15 yards
- DeeJay Dallas (RB) – almost last man standing again but with more work from Travis Homer in week 9. Only 39 total yards on 20 snaps but did get a touchdown
- AJ Dillon (RB) – COVID-IR
- Lynn Bowden (RB) – 0 snaps
- Devin Duvernay (WR) – 26 snaps, 0 targets, 1 carry for -1 yard
- Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR) – Injured Reserve
- Quintez Cephus (WR) – 31 snaps (Golladay out), 2 targets, 2 catches, 31 yards
- Van Jefferson (WR) – Bye
Special Tight End Category
- Devin Asiasi – inactive for the third game in a row and on IR now. Not fantasy relevant
- Cole Kmet – snap count continues to creep up but 0 targets in this one. Not fantasy relevant at this stage
- Josiah Deguara – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
- Dalton Keene – out for two weeks in a row and now on IR too. Not fantasy relevant
- Adam Trautman – 3 catches on 3 targets for 39 yards and a touchdown. You’d be happy with that from a lot of tight ends at the minute. I don’t see him as doing this regularly though and would suggest he isn’t fantasy relevant at this stage
- Harrison Bryant – Bye
- Albert Okwuegbunam – what a shame for the guy who has now torn his ACL and out for the season
- Colby Parkinson – inactive. Not fantasy relevant
- Brycen Hopkins – Bye. Not that he would have played anyway. Not fantasy relevant
Start, Stash or Stink
Not including the injured and obvious backup guys, here’s who you can Start, who you should Stash on your bench and who should be Stinking up the waiver wire.
Start
Quarterback – Joe Burrow & Justin Herbert
Running Back – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson, D’Andre Swift, James Robinson, JK Dobbins
Wide Receiver – Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, Jerry Jeudy
Tight End – N/A
Stash
Quarterback – Tua Tagovailoa
Running Back – Zack Moss
Wide Receiver – CeeDee Lamb, Laviska Shenault, Denzel Mims, Jalen Reagor, Brandon Aiyuk, KJ Hamler, Gabriel Davis
Tight End – Harrison Bryant
Stink
Quarterback – N/A
Running Back – Cam Akers, Joshua Kelley, La’Mical Perine
Wide Receiver – Henry Ruggs, Michael Pittman Jr, Bryan Edwards
Tight End – Everyone not named Harrison
Week 9 Ones-to-Watch
The two guys I’m watching closely for this week:
- Jonathan Taylor – is it fumbles, is it gamescript, or do they just not trust him?
- Tee Higgins – coming out of a bye, lets see if he can continue to marginalise AJ Green
Don’t forget to check back next week to see how these rookie values are changing.
