BUY: JAVONTE WILLIAMS, RB, DENVER BRONCOS
Javonte Williams was drafted in the second round of the NFL Draft by the Broncos at pick 2.03 when they traded up. This says a few things to me, the Broncos like him and they knew other teams in the NFL did as well, or they would not have felt forced to trade up. It also says that they understand Melvin Gordon is aging and wanted to bring in a young stud to help Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater command the offense.
I have heard rumblings that this is not a good landing spot for Williams, but I beg to differ. Williams is going to learn behind one of the best running backs to come out of Wisconsin and fortunately for us he struggles to play full seasons, especially now with 17 games. So initially we know that Williams will be in a workhorse role the weeks Gordon is not playing but we also need to account for that fact that Gordon is 28 now. This means that they will be letting Williams have a good chunk of the offense, and on paper this offense looks strong. What they are lacking in the quarterback room they make up for it in the tight end and receiver room.
Dynasty Rankings
Right now, Williams is sitting as a lot of people’s RB3 and subsequently falling to the 1.04-1.09 range of most 1QB leagues. I think at the 1.04 you are buying at cost and I will gladly take him. The best part about Javonte is the lower acquisition cost so if you have to move up for him, I like it slightly less, but I think it’s not a far stretch that he outscores Etienne this year and outscores Harris by the end of their careers. Something to note as well is that he should slowly take over the backfield if not immediately so come fantasy playoffs Williams should be a great play.
SELL: ANY WR NOT NAMED TYREEK HILL, WR, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman, Cornell Powell, and Byron Pringle. I know it is common to refer to Travis Kelce as a wide receiver, but he is not a sell for me, yet… As for the other guys, they have all been in the league for at least two years (Excluding the rookie Powell), but some people are still holding out hope.
The main reasons I am “out” on these players is their lack of production so far, but also the immense production Hill and Kelce receive. It is extremely hard to be fantasy relevant when you are competing with Hill’s 23% and Kelce’s 25% target share, that is almost 50% of the targets gone! I know this is not the spiciest take and some of you may be thinking “How am I supposed to sell these guys?” but I promise there is a market.
Mecole Hardman, for example, has an ADP of 150, which sounds abysmal, but he still has players like Josh Reynolds, Quintez Cephus, and Nelson Agholor after him. Looking at some of the rookies ADP around him he seems to be valued around pick 22-30, which is astounding value when you could snag someone like Nico Collins or Amon-Ra St. Brown there.
As for Pringle and Robinson the expectations should be tempered but I would be more than happy to sell for any third or fourth round pick where I can take a chance on someone like Elijah Mitchell or Anthony Schwartz. Cornell Powell obviously being the new addition to the team has that upside we want, but he does not profile very well and I’m looking at other players like Josh Palmer or Dez Fitzpatrick.
BUY: KEENAN ALLEN, WR, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
One of the greatest Comeback Player’s ever, Keenan Allen, is in the best position he has ever been in. The Chargers were 5th in the league in pass plays per game (41.3) and I do not see that number decreasing anytime soon. With the loss of Tyrod Taylor in Week 2 they were forced to start Justin Herbert, and boy was that one of the greatest things that happened to fantasy football last year.
Allen was top five in targets and target share last year, while boasting 17 red zone targets which led to 8 touchdowns in only 14 games. If we extrapolate his production into 16 games, he would have given us 114 catches, 1,113 yards, and 9 touchdowns: 277 FPTs. This doesn’t even count the two games that he played less than half the game due to injury and was playing decoy even when he was on the field.
Keenan is being drafted at an ADP of 46 (WR20) behind the likes of Brandon Aiyuk, Amari Cooper, and Ja’Marr Chase. I find it difficult to believe that Keenan will be outscored by any of those players this year. I am willing to move any of them straight up for him, but it’s very likely you could trade Chase for Allen++. Judging off Ja’Marr’s ADP of 2 in your average 1QB league I would be willing to move even the 1st overall pick for him and I 100% recommend it.
SELL: KENYAN DRAKE/JOSH JACOBS, RB, LOS VEGAS RAIDERS
Unfortunately for owners of both Drake and Jacobs, they ended up on the same team. I was a huge Jacobs fan up until this signing and it hurts me to say this, but both are sells. This situation is poised to become what we saw Moss and Singletary do to each other last year, which Adam covered in his last buy/sell where he discussed the AFC East. Luckily, both of these backs are overall better than Moss and Singletary so if I roster them and no one is buying then I feel alright with holding.
Jacobs is currently sitting around RB22 and Drake leveled out around RB38 after the news, but I still do not like the odds for either of them. Best case scenario you do not own either of these players and you do not have to worry about it but if I owned both then I am looking to sell both or neither. Unfortunately, but also fortunately, if you can only sell one then you run the risk of one becoming injured and the coin flip is something I am not a fan of. If you are able to own both then you can at least play Jacobs when he is healthy and if injury arises Drake becomes a weekly flex.
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The market for these players is not great but if I were able to sell Jacobs for Montgomery or the previously mentioned Javonte who are almost guaranteed a workhorse role, I would be ecstatic. Jacobs is a hard sell right now but with Javonte Williams sitting right next to him at RB21 I would give up a third or fourth to swing that trade.
Looking at Williams ADP in rookie drafts we see he is going at pick four frequently but sometimes as late as pick eight; Based off this I would be willing to sell for anything in that range. Drake is going to be a little trickier but players I would be targeting are Michael Carter and Myles Gaskin/Gerrid Doaks who have immense upside. Carter is currently sitting around a rookie ADP of 20 but I would take a late second or early third for Drake and acquire the best player available.
All ADP data is provided via DLF’s Monthly ADP and all stats/metrics can be found on PlayerProfiler.
