Jalen Hurts & The Week 14 Rookie Stock Update

Jalen Hurts, the New Kid in Town: Week 14 Rookie Stock Update

You want rookie league-winners? We’ve got rookie league-winners!

You want rookies who you’ve been blindly sticking to in the hope that they come good just in time, but are going to fall flat on their face and cost you a championship? We have those too!

As always, I’m going to look at how the opportunities are developing for the rookies and speculate on their outlook for the fantasy playoffs, including the impact of their remaining fixtures.

Here is the Week 14 rookie stock update.

Starters

Quarterback

Justin Herbert
Tua Tagovailoa
Jalen Hurts

Justin Herbert

44 pass attempts – it’s not a career high but 44 pass attempts marks 7 of the last 8 games with 42 or more and this one had his career high 82-percent completion rate
0 rush attempts – not that he was running like Lamar or Kyler, but since Ekeler returned that is now three games in a row without a single rush attempt from Herbert
Remaining Schedule – at Las Vegas, Denver

Outlook: His numbers have looked remarkably worse since Ekeler returned (16.7 points per game versus 30.4 points per game prior to his return) and it’s giving me pause. It’s a different gameplan and that’s hurting his output. You can play him as a low-end QB1 now and keep a lid on your expectations

Tua Tagovailoa

48 pass attempts – Tua was slinging it in this one, with his career high in pass attempts and a career high 316 passing yards
Interception – he threw his first interception in this one but he did also continue his run of throwing at least one touchdown in every game as the starter
Remaining Schedule – New England, at Las Vegas

Outlook: That’s still a tough schedule for a rookie QB on a playoff push. He’s in 2QB/Superflex start territory but I wouldn’t want to rely on him for the fantasy playoffs in 1QB leagues

Jalen Hurts

18 rush attempts – his first career start and a significant change to the Eagles philosophy as a result. With 18 rush attempts, that’s a number that Miles Sanders has only had once this season
167 passing yards – the 106 rushing yards is a wonderful base but only 167 passing yards and one touchdown is not going to get it done for your fantasy team
Remaining Schedule – at Arizona, at Dallas

Outlook: I wouldn’t be looking to play him in week 15 but if he develops and puts in a decent performance, a week 16 matchup with Dallas could be very intriguing

Running Back

Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Jonathan Taylor
Antonio Gibson (Injured)
Joshua Kelley (Inactive)
D’Andre Swift
JK Dobbins
James Robinson
Cam Akers
Zack Moss

*Clyde Edwards-Helaire*
Snaps	46 (74-percent)	Last Week: 0
Carries	16 (67-percent)	Last Week: 0
Redzone carries	1 (100-percent)	Last Week: 0
Opp 1-10 carries	0 (team total = 0)	Last Week: 0
Targets	6 (18-percent)	Last Week: 0

67-percent of carries – his bottom line stat numbers don’t look great but he did get 67-percent of the carries. That’s a market share that CEH managers would have been thrilled to get earlier in the year, especially when Bell signed
Redzone – look at those redzone numbers. Kansas City had one total redzone carry in this game, one. They just aren’t running the ball where it matters for running back fantasy production
Remaining schedule – at New Orleans, Atlanta

Outlook: The Kansas City rushing volume is a serious problem for CEH and it isn’t going to get much better with that schedule through your fantasy playoffs. You’re trotting him out as an RB2 but that says more about the position than it does about CEH

*Jonathan Taylor*
Snaps	34 (56-percent)	Last Week: 33 (48-percent)
Carries	20 (65-percent)	Last Week: 13 (45-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	4 (57-percent)	Last Week: 1 (25-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	2 (67-percent)	Last Week: 0
Targets	2 (7-percent)	Last Week: 3 (9-percent of team total)

165 total yards – three games in a row with over 100 yards and now back-to-back games of his career high total yardage
Split – this backfield is still split, but it’s much more of a two-way split than a three-way split as Wilkins appears to be somewhat marginalised
Remaining schedule – Houston, at Pittsburgh

Outlook: You couldn’t ask for a better trajectory going in to week 15 and a matchup against Houston. Taylor is going to be in the RB1 conversation and, as many hoped earlier in the year, he could yet be that league winner

*D’Andre Swift*
Snaps	36 (53-percent)	Last Week: Injured
Carries	7 (47-percent)	Last Week: Injured
Redzone carries	2 (40-percent)	Last Week: Injured
Opp 1-10 carries	2 (50-percent)	Last Week: Injured
Targets	5 (13-percent)	Last Week: Injured

Volume – Swift got more carries than any other back on the team but this Lions team does not run the ball often enough to make that market share count for too much. His work in the passing game props him up, with 4 or 5 targets in all but one game he’s played this season
Split – maybe it’s a residual effect of the injury/illness and maybe he needed to ease back in but there was still very much a frustrating split in this backfield, as evidenced by Peterson getting the first carry of the game and Kerryon getting a late touchdown
Remaining schedule – at Tennessee, Tampa Bay

Outlook: No doubting his talent but this split is frustrating and really holds down his potential output. He’s in the RB2 range with huge upside if the Lions unleash him against the Titans

*JK Dobbins*
Snaps	37 (62-percent)	Last Week: 21 (38-percent)
Carries	13 (41-percent)	Last Week: 11 (30-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	2 (29-percent)	Last Week: 4 (50-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	2 (67-percent)	Last Week: 2 (67-percent of team total)
Targets	0	Last Week: 0

62-percent – after a disappointingly low snap share last week, Dobbins bounced back this week with his third highest snap share of the season
Split backfield – it’s still a split backfield but here’s the good news: Mark Ingram played only 1 snap, and despite putting up a couple of scores Gus Edwards only played on 27-percent of snaps. Dobbins is the leader of this group now
Remaining schedule – Jacksonville, New York Giants

Outlook: His day was saved by a Touchdown and his lack of targets is concerning but he leads this backfield now. In a fantastic week 15 matchup against Jacksonville, I’m playing Dobbins as a high-end RB2

*James Robinson*
Snaps	40 (56-percent)	Last Week: 60 (85-percent)
Carries	12 (80-percent)	Last Week: 18 (72-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	0 (team total = 0)	Last Week: 2 (67-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	0 (team total = 0)	Last Week: 2 (67-percent of team total)
Targets	4 (7-percent)	Last Week: 6 (14-percent of team total)

56-percent of snaps – that’s his lowest since week 3 and that’s a concern. There’s no concern about other running backs taking away his share though, he was once again the only back to carry the ball in this one
Gardner – he’s back ladies and gentleman. Robinson was getting plenty of targets when Minshew was under centre before he was benched so this shouldn’t change that. He does have more ability to scramble though so might not need the safety valve in the same way that Glennon did
Remaining schedule – at Baltimore, Chicago

Outlook: Take a deep breath, put him in your lineup and breathe out in two weeks time. This is going to be a bumpy ride but you can’t sit the guy who got you here. Start your studs and this guy is a stud

Week 14 One-to-Watch: Cam Akers

*Cam Akers*
Snaps	50 (79-percent)	Last Week: 52 (63-percent)
Carries	29 (81-percent)	Last Week: 21 (68-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	5 (83-percent)	Last Week: 9 (82-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	4 (80-percent)	Last Week: 7 (88-percent of team total)
Targets	3 (12-percent)	Last Week: 1 (2-percent of team total)

Records, records, records – he was breaking them all over the place including most rookie rushing yards in a game this season and personal bests in yards, carries, targets and snap share
Workhorse – the question now is do we trust McVay to make him the workhorse? He’s gone with the hot-hand this season and Akers hand was on fire early in this game. What if he struggles early against the Jets, what if Henderson gets an early touch and fires off like Akers did this week?
Remaining schedule – New York Jets, at Seattle

Outlook: What a performance that was and it would be hard to bench him after that. There’s enough concern on McVay’s recent usage of his backs to stop me anointing Akers as the Rams workhorse but he’s in the high-end RB2 conversation

*Zack Moss*
Snaps	44 (59-percent)	Last Week: 11 (15-percent)
Carries	13 (48-percent)	Last Week: 3 (11-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	3 (60-percent)	Last Week: 2 (29-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	1 (100-percent)	Last Week: 1 (25-percent of team total)
Targets	1 (2-percent)	Last Week: 1 (3-percent of team total)

44 snaps – that’s his highest of the year and after a rough game last week, he found his groove in week 14
Singletary – Moss out-carried and out-snapped Singletary, and it was Moss they turned to at the end of the game to keep the ball moving and work down the clock. It wasn’t an efficient performance but this was the Steelers defence
Remaining schedule – at Denver, at New England

Outlook: The usage was better but there’s too much working against him. The ground game is inefficient, he doesn’t get enough targets, and Allen takes away the key touches. I wouldn’t be playing him against Denver unless I had no alternative

Wide Receiver

Jerry Jeudy
CeeDee Lamb
Brandon Aiyuk
Justin Jefferson
Tee Higgins
Henry Ruggs
Chase Claypool
Denzel Mims (inactive)
KJ Hamler
Jalen Reagor
Michael Pittman Jr
Gabriel Davis
Laviska Shenault

Jerry Jeudy

42 receiving yards – that’s better than it has been for a few weeks but it’s still not much to shout about and that included a 31 yard catch off only 4 targets
50-percent catch rate – I’ve been banging on about this for weeks now, Jeudy can’t get above 50-percent and once again hit exactly that number with his 2 catches off 4 targets. That puts him at 46.5-percent on the year
Remaining Schedule – Buffalo, at Los Angeles Chargers

Outlook: Still no need to roster him in redraft or play him in all but deep leagues. If I have him on a dynasty roster, I’d like to see Denver make a significant improvement at Quarterback

CeeDee Lamb

2 targets – not good, not good at all
46 rec yards – he did turn his measly target volume in to 46 receiving yards for the second week in a row and added a 15 yard carry
Remaining Schedule – San Francisco, Philadelphia

Outlook: Once again, without a touchdown he’s not giving you anything worthwhile. Come back next year

Week 14 One-to-Watch: Brandon Aiyuk

Brandon Aiyuk

16 targets – 16! His last five games have him at a 16 game pace of 179 targets, 115 receptions, 1,584 yards and 10 touchdowns
119 yards – his 119 yards in this game is a career high and if he keeps playing like this, it won’t be that way for long
Remaining Schedule – at Dallas, at Arizona

Outlook: With Deebo out injured again, this opens up even more for Aiyuk to continue this trajectory. He has Dallas in week 15 so you play him with confidence. If for some reason he’s still available on waivers, this is what your remaining FAAB is for

Justin Jefferson

8 targets – for 39 yards. That’s low by his recent standards (lowest since week 8) and was a disappointment if you were relying on him to get you through the playoffs
0 Touchdowns – and this is the first time in four weeks without a score
Remaining schedule – Chicago, at New Orleans

Outlook: This was definitely a down game for Jefferson and that schedule is not pleasant. However, Minnesota could be struggling to make significant strides in the ground game and that could open things up for Jefferson. He’s a WR2

Tee Higgins

5 receptions – for three weeks in a row, Higgins has caught the ball 5 times
49 yards – and for three weeks he’s been between 44 and 56 yards receiving
Remaining schedule – Pittsburgh, at Houston

Outlook: His schedule isn’t too shabby but if you’re relying on him at this point then I doubt you made the playoffs. He’s a desperation WR3 at best

Henry Ruggs

3 targets – Ruggs has had between 3 and 5 targets every week but one this season
3 receptions – and he’s caught 3 passes in 4 of the last 5. Only 18 yards in this one though
Remaining schedule – Los Angeles Chargers, Miami

Outlook: Outside of the worst defensive play call in history, Ruggs has been useless for your fantasy team and that isn’t going to change now

Chase Claypool

67-percent of snaps – a faith-restoring bounce back from his 44-percent in week 13. However, with James Washington playing on 81-percent of snaps, Claypool’s boost in playing time was likely a result of Diontae Johnson being ‘dropped’ (yes, I went there…) to the bench in the first half
15 yards – outside of a -2 yard game in week 7, this was his lowest return on the entire season
Remaining schedule – at Cincinnati, Indianapolis

Outlook: He’s got the talent and we’ve seen the upside but you can’t trust him right now. James Washington is becoming a trusted target in a team that can’t stop dropping the ball, and Claypool’s playing time is taking a hit as a result. I wouldn’t start him as anything more than a low-end WR3 punt play

KJ Hamler

86 yards and 2 touchdowns – career highs and wonderful to see a rookie have a big game
3 targets – but it only came on 3 targets from 61-percent of snaps. That’s not reliable volume
Remaining Schedule – Buffalo, at Los Angeles Chargers

Outlook: Firstly, its Denver and that does not bode well for reliable fantasy production. Secondly, this was a one-off and isn’t something you’re going to see often from 3 targets. He’s a cheap DFS play but don’t put your mortgage on it

Jalen Reagor

68-percent of snaps – now wide receiver got more than 74-percent so he’s right up there. The problem is that they don’t have a stable group of receivers that stay on the field, it’s a rotation
46 yards – from 4 targets. Reagor hasn’t had more than 7 targets or 55 receiving yards yet this season
Remaining schedule – at Arizona, at Dallas

Outlook: A change in Quarterback didn’t lead to a change in production for Reagor. You don’t need to be rostering him in redraft leagues

Michael Pittman Jr

5 targets – looks like 5 targets is the zone of expectation for Pittman. That’s two weeks in a row of exactly 5 and an average of 5.5 over the past four
42 yards – as suspected, this is about what you can expect from Pittman unless he breaks a big play, and that’s not going to happen regularly
Remaining schedule – Houston, at Pittsburgh

Outlook: Decent schedule but with T.Y. Hilton hitting his straps, I don’t want any part of Pittman

Gabriel Davis

83-percent of snaps – it’s a tick down from the last two weeks but still high. He’s still getting plenty of playing time with John Brown out on IR
Touchdown – that’s three weeks in a row and four in the last five games. With only 19 yards off 8 targets though, that’s going to make him hard to trust
Remaining schedule – at Denver, at New England

Outlook: He was a desperation or cheap DFS play in week 14 and with John Brown’s return looming, you won’t want to play him in week 15

Laviska Shenault

75-percent of snaps – he bounced back from injury with a healthy snap share
11 targets – a career high and reflective of what he can bring to the Jaguars team when healthy. It only led to 49 yards so it’s not enough for your fantasy team
Remaining schedule – at Baltimore, Chicago

Outlook: 11 targets is nice but production is low and this schedule is brutal. I’m not playing him and neither should you

Injury Issues

Joe Burrow (QB)
Darrynton Evans (RB)
Antonio Gibson (RB)
La’Mical Perine (RB)

Backup – not this year without an injury

Jordan Love (QB) – inactive
Jacob Eason (QB) – inactive
James Morgan (QB) – inactive
Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB) – 4 snaps, 1 carry for -3 yards
Anthony McFarland Jr (RB) – inactive
DeeJay Dallas (RB) – 8 snaps, 4 carries for 7 yards
AJ Dillon (RB) – 4 special teams snaps only
Lynn Bowden (RB) – 59 snaps (career high and going up), 9 targets for 7 catches and 82 yards, 1 carry for 2 yards
Devin Duvernay (WR) – 9 snaps, 0 targets
Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR) – Injured Reserve
Quintez Cephus (WR) – 33 snaps, 2 targets for 2 catches and 16 yards
Van Jefferson (WR) – from a career high in week 13 to 0 targets on 19 snaps in week 14
Bryan Edwards (WR) – 20 snaps, 0 targets

Special Tight End Category

Devin Asiasi – 23 snaps, 0 targets. Not fantasy relevant
Cole Kmet – 51 snaps (85-percent is a career high), 7 targets for 4 catches and 41 yards. Graham got the touchdown this week but Kmet is well and truly establishing himself as the Bears TE1. He’s still not fantasy relevant just yet but keep him on your radar for next season
Josiah Deguara – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
Dalton Keene – 31 snaps, 0 targets. Not fantasy relevant
Adam Trautman – 15 snaps, 1 target1 for 1 catch and 12 yards. Not fantasy relevant
Harrison Bryant – 55 snaps, 6targets for 3 catches and 18 yards. Not fantasy relevant
Albert Okwuegbunam – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
Colby Parkinson – 19 snaps, 2 targets (the first of his career) for 2 catches and 16 yards. Not fantasy relevant
Brycen Hopkins – 8 special teams snaps only. Not fantasy relevant

Start, Stash or Stink

Not including the injured and obvious backup guys, here’s who you can Start, who you should Stash on your bench and who should be Stinking up the waiver wire.

Start

Quarterback – Justin Herbert

Running Back – Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, James Robinson, JK Dobbins, Cam Akers

Wide Receiver – Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk

Tight End – N/A

Stash (can play if you HAVE to)

Quarterback – Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts

Running Back – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Zack Moss

Wide Receiver – Tee Higgins, Laviska Shenault, Denzel Mims, Chase Claypool, Gabriel Davis