Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
2025 Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Football Outlook
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense is a fantasy football riddle. The backfield work distribution in a three headed committee, the uncertainty surrounding Trevor Lawrence, and of course, the largest headliner, the utilization for two way trailblazer Travis Hunter are all huge question marks. This article will answer all of them. Here’s a full breakdown on the Jaguars offense.
Trevor Lawrence Fantasy Outlook
With Liam Coen in the picture, there has been newfound optimism for Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence has failed to build onto his breakout 2022 season. That’s where Coen comes in. He’s coming off an incredibly successful season where he called an offense that ranked 3rd in passing yards, 2nd in passing touchdowns and 6th in passing yards per attempt. And Coen will continue to call plays for the Jaguars.
How well do Coen and Lawrence’s tendencies mesh? That’s where it gets tricky, they don’t. Lawrence has amazing arm talent and loves using it, ranking 2nd in average depth of target and 4th in deep throw rate. Coen took on a similar archetype quarterback in his time with the Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield. Mayfield ranked 2nd in average depth of target and 5th in deep throw rate in 2023, before Coen came in. Coen took a look at these tendencies and completely reversed them. The next season, under Coen’s command, Mayfield ranked 31st in average depth of target and 29th in deep throw rate. Coen wants to run a conservative offense anchored by quick, safe throws. Mayfield ranked 3rd in quick throws. It’s likely we see a similar transformation with the Jaguars this season.
This does limit Lawrence’s upside with his big play ability being taken away but Mayfield was able to put together a great fantasy campaign regardless. Although it’s unlikely the Jaguars are the high scoring offense the Buccaneers were, this is still the best supporting cast Lawrence has had. There’s a real possibility he gets back to his 2022 form where he finished as QB8 and you can get him virtually for free with his current ADP.
The Backfield Mess
There are a number of ways the Jaguars can go regarding their backfield. They can opt for Travis Etienne to be their lead back, hoping he returns to old form. However, he was outperformed by powerful downhill runner Tank Bigsby who topped a plethora of efficiency stats last season. And they drafted rookie Bhayshul Tuten to round it out. All three of these guys will be gunning for the top of the depth chart.
Coen’s lead back should be a coveted player for fantasy football owners as the Buccaneers offense leaned on the backfield, ranking 2nd in designed targets to running backs. The trick is finding who they’ll be going to. The current projection is Etienne. Etienne’s career has been a roller coaster. He missed his entire rookie season, bounced back with two straight great seasons but had a fall from grace in 2024. What stands out is his dramatic efficiency fall off. His yards per carry dropped from 5.1 in 2022 to 3.7. But a big reason for this is the offensive line.
The offensive line will be a huge concern for everyone in the backfield. In Etienne’s best season, 2022, he ranked first in yards before contact/attempt. In 2024, he ranked 32nd. The Jaguars as a whole ranked dead last in yards before contact/attempt. And they’ve done nothing to upgrade.
That didn’t seem to matter to Bigsby. He ranked 1st in yards after contact/attempt and 5th in avoided tackle rate. Elite efficiency despite the poor offensive line performance. However, Bigsby doesn’t project to be involved much in the passing game, an area Coen prioritizes for his running backs.
The title of the receiving back likely goes to Tuten. And it’s a valuable role. His explosiveness and cutting ability makes him perfectly tailored for Coen’s offense. Given the emphasis Coen assigns to his receiving backs, Tuten offers upside despite his late ADP.
There’s a real chance we see a three back committee in Jacksonville. Etienne as the lead back, Bigsby as the power back and Tuten as the receiving back. And that’s a disaster for fantasy. With the workload concerns and offensive line play, it’s best to avoid everyone in this backfield. If you had to choose someone, Tuten would be the best choice. He’s the cheapest and offers upside. Etienne, on the other hand, should be avoided at all costs. He’s going in a range where there are still players with value while Etienne carries none. He had a disastrous 2024 campaign and was even incredibly inefficient in 2023, where he relied on volume. He doesn’t have that volume anymore. Splitting carries while being inefficient is a terrible mix. It’s one to avoid completely.
Brian Thomas Jr. Fantasy Outlook
Brian Thomas was the lone bright spot in a dire Jaguars offense. He was the WR4 as a rookie despite being shackled to a train wreck offense. Coen taking over and Lawrence getting healthy offers new life to the offense.
Thomas and Lawrence didn’t have the lethal connection you’d expect as Thomas only averaged 14 points per game with Lawrence playing. He didn’t take off until the second half of the season, where he averaged over 19 a game. But he could’ve been even better. 68.3% of Thomas’ targets were catchable with Lawrence. That number dropped to an atrocious 41.4% without him. Plenty of missed opportunities yet Thomas produced despite it. With Lawrence now healthy, Thomas will hopefully be given the chance to catch at least half of his targets.
Coen coming it should help as well. His offensive philosophy being dependent on the quick passing game may seem like a concern for Thomas, who ranked 6th in yards on deep throws. However, he also ranked 3rd in yards on quick throws. Coen prioritizes quick and easy to set up YAC opportunities, which boosts Thomas even more.
In 2023, the Buccaneers were a pedestrian YAC squad, ranking 15th. In 2024, after bringing in Coen they ranked 2nd in yards after catch. A massive upgrade despite having a similar unit of pass catches as the year prior. They were also missing their best YAC threat, Chris Godwin, for most of the year. That’s a product of elite scheming. Thomas ranked 6th in YAC while in a lifeless offense. Imagine the opportunities set up for Thomas now that he has a passing scheme mastermind calling the shots.
Saying Thomas’ rookie season was successful would be an understatement. But he should take another step in his second year. He’s the complete package. He can thrive in any alignment and any area of the field. And he now has a coach that can properly utilize him. A second round ADP is a tremendous value.
Travis Hunter Fantasy Outlook
Hunter is a fantasy football phenomenon. Being worried about a player’s position is new. When’s the last time we’ve seen a receiver’s value recede because they get too much playing time? Well, it’s the case for Hunter. And it is a valid concern. However, all signs are pointing towards him being prioritized on offense.
Hunter should be a focal point in the passing attack. Lawrence has always favored throwing to slot targets. In 2024, the Jaguars ranked 8th in slot targets. They were 1st in 2023 and 2nd in 2022. Chris Godwin, who primarily played in the slot, was a top fantasy receiver under Coen before getting injured. The slot will play a huge role in this offense. Thomas could spend some time there but he’s best outside as the X receiver. Dyami Brown spent most of his time aligning outside in Washington. That leaves Hunter, who thrived in the slot in college.
Hunter is currently listed as the WR2 and a backup corner on the Jaguars depth chart. In his lone preseason game, he took all of his offensive snaps with the starters and all of his defensive snaps with the backups. Hunter will be a starting receiver and will have a valuable role in the offense with plenty of volume. His 5th-6th round ADP is a robbery. He was the best receiver prospect in the draft and is walking into an amazing situation.
Wrap Up
Not much could’ve gone worse for the Jaguars in 2024. But it’s time for a turn around. With Lawrence getting healthy and the several additions they’ve made, the Jaguars offense will have a breakout season. It’s a great situation to be in for the likes of Thomas and Hunter who are both severely undervalued in drafts and should be aggressively targeted. Lawrence will also greatly benefit from having a receiver duo of their caliber and will be a low end QB1/high end QB2. The backfield is a different story. It’s a mess back there and it isn’t much prettier up front with the offensive line. With the uncertainty of their workloads and offensive line question marks, it’s best to steer clear from the Jaguars backfield. It’s a headache with little upside. However, I’m incredibly high on their passing attack. The quick passing game should slightly disguise the protection concerns and Coen’s ability to scheme YAC opportunities is a major boost. Buy Lawrence and his primary pass catchers.
