Hunter Renfrow is an undersized slot receiver that has an uncanny ability to pick up yards after the catch. At 5-10 185-pounds, he doesn’t even look like a football player, being mistaken for Derek Carr’s son. A pair of slot receivers who made a living in the NFL doing exactly what Renfrow does are Julian Edelman and Wes Welker. Both had great chemistry with their quarterbacks, like Renfrow with Carr. Tough with good hands, they built a career doing the dirty work, extending drives, and taking hits coming across the middle. With comparisons like that, it is odd that Renfrow is still a fantasy football sleeper.

The addition of Henry Ruggs and Bryen Edwards to the Raiders’ roster has driven down Renfrow’s value. He’s currently ranked as WR77 at Yards Per Fantasy, and WR78 at FantasyPros in Dynasty formats. A few players going ahead of him are Andy Isabella, Golden Tate, and Devin Duvernay. He’s one of the most under-valued players going into the 2020 season.

Hunter Renfrow: The Fantasy Sleeper Everyone Is Sleeping On

Third and Renfrow in College

A two-star football player out of high school, Renfrow walked on to the Clemson Tigers college football team. Undersized at 5-10 and 155-pounds, he redshirted for a year and worked hard to put on weight and improve. Dabo Swinney rewarded Renfrow’s hard work with a scholarship in 2015. The rest is history.

A quick look at his college stats doesn’t tell the full story about one of the greatest walk-ons of all time. Over four years he caught 186 balls for 2,133 yards and 15 touchdowns. Playing with top-tier athletes like Mike Williams, Tee Higgins, and Justyn Ross meant that touches were few and far between. The most amount of receptions he had in a season was 60 back in 2017, explaining his 23.7-percent college dominator score. However, he made the most of every ball he caught.

Fantasy Football

Renfrow was a safety blanket for a pair of stud quarterbacks in Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson. Tough and reliable, both quarterbacks hit him on third downs regularly. Renfrow often had to catch balls with one defender draped over him plus a linebacker crashing towards him. He did the dirty work for four years whilst the other receivers dazzled scouts.

When he got his moment to shine, oh boy did he shine. Renfrow isn’t a burner, running a 4.59 forty at the combine. However, he is shifty and can make people miss. He did just that in 2017, taking a slant to the house against Alabama in the National Championship game. Renfrow caught ten balls for 92 yards in that game and most importantly, two touchdowns.

The slot receiver came up clutch for Clemson in two different national championships. He ended his collegiate career as one of the greatest walk-ons of all time. All of this despite being overlooked as a high schooler and having to fight multiple five-star athletes for every touch. Renfrow truly proved that size doesn’t matter at Clemson.

The Talent And Chemistry Are There

The Oakland Raiders selected Renfrow in the fifth-round in the 2019 NFL Draft. He wasted no time building chemistry with their franchise quarterback Derek Carr. The slot receiver caught 49 balls in his rookie year, with 47-percent of them coming on third down. For comparison, only 20-percent of Julian Edelman’s receptions came on third down. Renfrow had more third-down receptions than his teammate Darren Waller.

Unsurprisingly, Renfrow was often left with a lot of work to do after catching the ball. He was often targeted short of the sticks and regularly took hard hits as he made defenders miss. Half of his 12.3 yards-per-reception came after the catch. When he wasn’t fighting through three defenders for a first down, Renfrow showed he could burn defensive backs.

Derek Carr noticed Renfrow’s talent early in the season.Towards the end of the season, Renfrow got the volume he deserved, and he didn’t disappoint. In his last two games, he posted back to 100-yard-plus games with a touchdown in both.

Fantasy football

He scored over 20 fantasy points in both of those games. In the last seven games he played in, he averaged 15.4 points per game in full PPR. If he was any other second-year receiver, people would be singing his praises all across the fantasy football community. He had a higher yards-per-reception and catch rate than Diontae Johnson, a consensus breakout candidate in 2020.

What About The Raiders’ Draft Picks?

The slot receiver finished the 2019 NFL season with the highest target share and number of receptions within the ten-yard line on the Raiders roster. This is despite playing with athletic monsters like Darren Waller, Foster Moreau, and Tyrell Williams. You can’t replace chemistry and trust, which Renfrow has with Carr.

Edwards is a threat to Renfrow’s touches. At 6-3 215-pounds, he profiles as a big body slot receiver. Selected in the third round, he is the main reason Renfrow’s value has dipped this offseason. It’s reasonable to assume that a former fifth-rounder will be the odd one out. However, that former fifth-rounder is a crucial piece in the red zone and third downs. That kind of reliability is irreplaceable. Renfrow is special, as per Jon Gruden himself.

Renfrow was targeted more often than Tyrell Williams while playing nearly 300 fewer snaps. Williams is the receiver people should be fading. His value to the Raiders comes from his deep threat ability. Oakland recently invested a first-round pick into one of most electric deep threats in college football, Henry Ruggs. He signed his massive contract before the 2019 NFL Draft, and since then the Raiders felt the need to take three receivers in the 2020 Draft. A team that has posted back-to-back seasons with the lowest Intended Air Yards per Attempt doesn’t need two deep threats.

Fantasy Football Projections

hunter-renfrow-fantasy-draft-advicePlaying in a division with defenses like the Chargers and Broncos will result in plenty of third and longs. And we all know who Carr loves to target in those situations.

Playing against the Chiefs will end in gunfights as the Raiders try to keep pace with their insane amount of weapons. We’ve seen what Renfrow can do when he gets volume.

In 2019, Renfrow averaged 6.1 snaps per target. To put that into perspective, Waller averaged nearly 7.9 snaps per target. If the slot receiver continued at his average of 34 snaps per game, he would have played 544 snaps over 16 games. That would be 90.67 targets on the year at his current rate. This rate is unsustainable so expect Renfrow’s snaps per target to fall back towards seven, which is still a remarkable rate.

I’m projecting Renfrow, who will be the third-best receiving threat on the Raiders in 2020, to eclipse 650 snaps on the year.

The Emergence of Josh Jacobs

The emergence of Josh Jacobs last season resulted in defenses stacking the box more often. Renfrow worked the middle of the field regularly, making his life more difficult as he had to navigate linebackers and safeties when trying to shake his man. The addition of Ruggs will force defenses to account for his speed, leaving more space underneath for Renfrow. With fewer bodies surrounding him, his catch rate should increase to reflect his great hands.

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Playing with elite athletes does have its benefits. Renfrow will be able to pick up more yards underneath as defenses sink back in fear of being burnt by Ruggs, Waller, or Williams deep. He creates yards in the most densely populated area of the field, so reducing the amount of men in the box will only help.

  • 650 snaps at 7 snaps per target = 92 targets
  • At a sustainable 75-percent catch rate = 69 receptions
  • 69 receptions at 13 yards-per-reception = 897 yards
  • Chemistry with Carr will continue his presence in the red zone: Five TDs

These projections are on the lower end but would still result in 188.7 points, ranking him as WR32 in 2019 in full PPR. If you took his average fantasy points per game over his last seven games, he would have had 246 points in 2019, good for WR12.

At his current ADP, he’s a bargain for Dynasty formats. He’s on a rookie contract for the foreseeable future, and on track to receive targets from a great quarterback. Yet again, if he was any other second-year receiver, people would be raving about him. Snatch him up before his value explodes.

Renfrow is both a long-term prospect with a skill set that ages well, just ask Julian Edelman or Wes Welker, and a player who will be a great WR3 on your fantasy teams in 2020. Whether you are a contender or a rebuilder, he’s perfect for your team.

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