Background
I’ll be the first to admit that I was too high on Henry Ruggs III coming out of Alabama last season. He checked all of the boxes, for me, from an analytical standpoint. He’s the prototypical speed-receiver at 5-11, 188-pounds. He ran an amazing 4.27 official 40-yard dash time at the combine. Even his hand size is in the 91st percentile despite not having the biggest build.
Then, I turned on the tape and was even more amazed. He routinely took five yard slant routes to the house by simply running away from everybody similar to what Odell Beckham Jr. did in his New York Giants days. Even his less-than-ideal landing spot with the Las Vegas Raiders could not detour me from drafting him in all of my 2020 rookie drafts.
Henry Ruggs III is the fastest person on Earth. pic.twitter.com/B40MAP90yX
— Touchdown Alabama (@TDAlabamaMag) September 15, 2019
Overvalued
Safe to say he was locked in as my WR1 for the 2020 rookie class. I was all in and got burned. Ruggs put up a 26-452-2 stat line for a measly 79 fantasy points in PPR leagues. If that wasn’t bad enough, fellow rookies like Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb and Tee Higgins burst onto the scene making Ruggs look like a pick that only a fantasy noob would make.
It was back to the drawing board for my WR evaluation process and I didn’t know where to start. Were the Raiders just not looking his way? Was Derek Carr the problem? Was Ruggs skillset not transferring to the NFL the way it should?
The truth is he was mainly used as a deep-threat decoy in the Raiders offense. He was at best the third option on a team that passed the ball just 55-percent of the time. (10th lowest in the entire NFL).
Darren Waller and Nelson Agholor were the top two options and the only fantasy relevant pass-catchers that the Raiders possessed. Agholor is now in New England making it now or never for the 2020 12th overall pick to shine.
Time to Buy
Henry Ruggs is falling down fantasy draft boards even in dynasty leagues. He’s currently ranked No. 55 in our consensus YardsPer dynasty WR rankings. This is fair, given his weak rookie season but there is still a lot to like about the former Crimson Tide standout.
Ruggs’ athletic profile is absolutely elite. He’s essentially a bigger, faster DeVonta Smith. Oh yeah, he’s also a few months younger. Smith is ranked almost 30 spots higher than Ruggs on our rankings and that’s being generous compared to other dynasty platforms. Nothing against the Heisman winner but should they really be that far apart?
The fantasy community has completely soured on Ruggs and there are some good arguments against him ever being an alpha in the NFL. But at his current ADP he is a value play if he simply scratches out a WR3 season. The value is too good to pass up.
Maybe I’m making a mistake by going back to the well for a second time. Hopefully it hasn’t dried out completely in the Las Vegas desert.
2021 Projections
Nelson Agholor posted a 57-958-5 stat line as the Raiders No. 1 receiver. This was good enough for WR33 and should be a realistic benchmark for Ruggs in 2021.
Build Your Own 2021 Projections!
Bryan Edwards has gotten some hype this offseason but based on analytic profiles and draft capital, Ruggs is going to get every opportunity to be the guy in Vegas.
Waller is the primary target in the passing game and all signs point to another run-heavy approach from Jon Gruden for the foreseeable future. However, Ruggs is still just 22 years old and the talent is there.
Not all great receivers can break out in their rookie season. Take advantage of impatient dynasty players with Henry Ruggs on their roster.
