Garrett Wilson 2023 Fantasy Football Preview
After being selected 10th overall by the New York Jets in the 2022 NFL Draft, Garrett Wilson had an impressive rookie season. There were plenty of roadblocks in his path to success, with Quarterback play being the most significant issue, but the 22-year-old finished as the WR19 overall and solidified himself as the clear top target in New York for years to come. With Zach Wilson out of the way and future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers set to take over as the signal caller for the Jets, the 2023 season could be huge for the former Ohio State Buckeye. The fantasy community is hyping up the second-year receiver in a big way, but are they jumping the gun? We will answer that question today! Let’s look back at Wilson’s 2022 rookie campaign and project what his 2023 season could look like.
All stats are based on Half-PPR scoring formats and rankings are based on the top 130 scoring fantasy Wide Receivers
2022 Fantasy Stats
Garrett Wilson showcased his skills more than a handful of times in 2022. While the Jets’ passing attack was erratic due to poor completion percentage, Wilson was the lone bright spot, finishing 19th overall. On a per-game basis, he was not nearly as reliable. The 22-year-old tied for 30th in points per game, just surpassing the double-digit mark. He never finished as the WR1 overall at any point, but was a top 24 WR six times, with three performances of 20 points or more scored. His presence as an elite receiver was felt, but Zach Wilson held him back most of the time. The backup tandem of Joe Flacco and Mike White helped the Ohio State alum at times, but Wilson spent over half the season outside the top 36.
2022 Receiving Stats
Right away, we can see the clear issue for Wilson in 2022, accuracy. The New York Jets Quarterback trio combined for a completion rate of 57 percent, leading to a high total of poor targets for the entirety of the Jets’ receiving corps. Wilson finished tied for sixth overall in total targets but finished 16th in total receptions. He struggled to find the end zone at a high rate, but racked up over 1,100 yards, aiding him in finishing inside the top 20 by the end of the season. With a 25 percent target share and an upgrade at Quarterback in 2023, Wilson should improve in most of these categories.
2022 Advanced Receiving Stats
Even after racking up plenty of air yards, Wilson finished outside the top 50 in average depth of target. Running shorter routes to ensure he could have even a chance of catching the ball from the poor group of passers, the 22-year-old should be able to run deeper routes with Rodgers now under center. On the bright side, Wilson ran a route on nearly 85 percent of his snaps and was tough to bring down, breaking 10 tackles last season. With 56 of his 147 targets rated non-catchable, only 61.9 percent of the balls thrown his way were even in his catch radius. Wilson was not the reason he struggled to catch the nearly 150 targets thrown his way, it was his quarterback’s ineptitude to get him the ball.
2022 Rushing, Turnover, and Totals Stats
Wilson’s explosiveness as a ball carrier out of the backfield did not translate to much production on the field in the pros. Four carries turned into just four scoreless yards. With all of the hurdles the rookie had to overcome, Wilson ranked inside the top 15 in total yards but finished outside the top 36 in total touchdowns.
2022 Red Zone Stats
Similar to Seattle Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf, Garrett Wilson saw plenty of red zone targets but failed to catch most of them. As we have seen, most of this issue was on the Quarterback, but it is nice to see that the 22-year-old was the clear top target for New York when passing inside the 20-yard line. These numbers should easily rise in 2023.
2022 Per Game Stats
We see more of the same in Wilson’s per-game stat totals. Garnering nearly nine targets per game, the rookie typically reeled in five of them and gained about 65 yards per game. He ranked top 25 in both air yards and yards after the catch per game, showing no real flaws that could hinder him from succeeding in 2023.
2022 Percentage Stats (Great, Good, Flex, and Bust Games)
While the rookie struggled to remain consistent for fantasy managers last season, Garrett Wilson still ranked top 10 in ‘Great’ game percentage and had the highest of any rookie receiver. However, only 35.3 percent of his games were considered ‘Good’ and Wilson had a ‘Bust’ rate of nearly 50 percent. Overall, it was a successful season for the Ohio State alum and one that looks to be a precursor of big things to come for both his NFL and fantasy career.
More: 3 Players You Should Stop Drafting In 2023
2023 Outlook
All of the changes that happened this offseason were to the benefit of Wilson. The 22-year-old has a better-supporting cast to take coverage off of him in the form of free-agent additions Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman. The Jets made an upgrade at the quarterback position in the form of Aaron Rodgers, exactly the move Wilson needed. Compared to the combined completion percentage of 57 percent by the Jet’s passers last season, Rodgers averages a 65.3 completion rate and has dipped below that number just five times in the past 12 years. When he has dropped, it has not been by much, meaning the number of catchable targets Wilson will receive should go way up.
The additions of Lazard and Hardman will help free up the former first-round pick in coverage and should lead to a higher touchdowns rate, with the only potential drawback being in his target total. However, that total should not drop by much, if at all, as Rodgers has a habit of hyper-targeting his top target, especially if they are as talented as Wilson.
With the team’s total passing touchdown number set to rise, the quality of targets set to increase, and Wilson set to get even better in year two, there is no reason to believe the 22-year-old couldn’t finish as a top-12 fantasy receiver in 2023.
Currently being drafted as the WR10 in the back of the second round according to FantasyPros, Wilson’s fantasy stock seems to be right where he is projected to finish. There is always the chance he fails to live up to his draft cost if he continues to struggle to score, but projecting that he takes the next step forward with Rodgers under center, he should easily return on his current draft value.
My Thoughts
To say I am excited about the season Garrett Wilson could have in year two would be an understatement. The young receiver dealt with some of the worst Quarterback play I can remember seeing in his rookie season yet still finished as the WR19 overall.
We saw what he can do when given the chance to succeed with his three 20-plus point games in 2022, and now, with an improved supporting cast and an upgrade in target quality, there is no reason to doubt that the 22-year old will take a massive step forward for fantasy in 2023.
Wilson’s current draft cost is more than reasonable, and I do not doubt that he will return on the investment and could even provide top-five production if he can find the end zone at a high enough rate.
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