First Round Reaction: 2024 NFL Draft Landing Spot Analysis
2024 NFL Draft Reaction: First Round Impact On Your Dynasty Teams
The first round has come and gone! And boy was it a good one. The first night of the NFL Draft rarely disappoints, but 2024 seems particularly impactful for dynasty fantasy football. There were a ton of surprises (Michael Penix anyone?), but also a lot of things we expected to happen. The best players on our board were confirmed by the NFL. But now that we know the landing spots and draft capital, we can start to formulate an accurate projection for the short and long-term outlook of these players. Let’s start at the top.
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1.01 Caleb Williams, QB, Bears
We’ve known Caleb Williams was going to be the 1.01 for months. He is well deserving of the selection. Williams might just be the best quarterback prospect to enter the NFL since Andrew Luck. He is a dynamic playmaker who can make all the throws from both inside the pocket as well as on the move. He is also a threat to gain chunks with his legs.
The Bears have done everything they can to build up the supporting cast around him and give him the best possible chance to succeed, something so many other franchises have failed to do over the years. They continued that with the No. 9 pick by selecting Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze and adding him to an offense that already included DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, D’Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, and Cole Kmet. They’ve even invested in the offensive line over the last couple offseasons. Williams has a Patrick Mahomes-like ceiling and he could be a cornerstone piece of your dynasty team for the next 10 years. He is the locked-in 1.01 in superflex rookie drafts and should be considered beginning around the 1.05 in single quarterback leagues.
1.02 Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders
Jayden Daniels quietly lands in a good spot. He has quality weapons around him in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Austin Ekeler, and Brian Robinson. Sure, it’s no Chicago but it’s also not the wasteland of New England either. Daniels has the arm to make all the throws and his legs give him the highest fantasy upside of any quarterback in the class. He has plenty of experience and should be ready to play right away. He will utilize his legs a ton early in his career as he adapts to the NFL game. That means there’s a real chance he outscores even Caleb Williams in 2024. Daniels should be the QB2 in dynasty rookie drafts, especially in single quarterback leagues. Draft him in the top-3 or 4 picks in superflex formats.
1.03 Drake Maye, QB, Patriots
Drake Maye is in for a challenge. He lands with the Patriots who have one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL. They need to upgrade the offensive line, they need to add pass catchers, and they need to give Drake Maye time to develop. Out of all the early quarterbacks, Maye would probably benefit the most from riding the bench for a bit before getting thrown into the fire. He can get coached up, work on improving some of his mechanics issues, and learn the system before getting thrown into the dumpster fire that is the Patriots offense.
If things go right for Maye and he develops into his physical traits, he has about as high a ceiling as anyone. He can get to the Josh Allen/Justin Herbert spectrum of quarterback play. He has the arm talent and he has the athleticism to be a difference maker with his legs as well. As things stand now, Maye is the QB3 in the class and should be drafted in the 1.04-1.06 range in dynasty superflex rookie drafts.
1.04 Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr. was always the chalk pick to the Cardinals at the 1.04. He fits the mold of a prototypical alpha X-wide receiver. He is going to be a big-bodied playmaker for quarterback Kyler Murray who will appreciate Harrison’s ability to contort his body to track and attack the football in traffic. Harrison immediately slides in as the top passing catcher in Arizona and should command a high volume of targets as a rookie. He compares favorably to AJ Green and Justin Jefferson—both of which had incredible rookie seasons and it’s likely we see something similar from Harrison. Harrison will be a top-10 wide receiver in the NFL for a long time and should be taken with the first overall pick in non-superflex dynasty rookie drafts.
1.06 Malik Nabers, WR, Giants
The initial reaction to Malik Nabers to the Giants from the fantasy community has been mostly negative. However, Nabers is entering a very fantasy-friendly situation. The Giants have one of the weakest receiver rooms in the NFL and tight end Darren Waller appears likely to retire. That leaves Nabers as the clear, uncontested top target for Daniel Jones in 2024. And sure, it’s still Daniel Jones and of course it would have been nice to see Nabers paired with a better quarterback, but the target volume is going to be very high. With Nabers’ skill set, he will do the most with his targets. He is incredible after the catch, meaning he will always be gaining additional yardage and the team is surely going to feed him high-percentage manufactured touches like screens and jet sweeps as well.
Nabers is in line for a 130 target rookie season and is likely going to be a top-20 scorer in fantasy football. A Ja’Marr Chase-like rookie campaign is in the range of outcomes.
1.08 Michael Penix Jr., QB, Falcons
What in the world? Did the Falcons forget that they signed Kirk Cousins? Did they see Matt Ryan retire last week and think they had to replace him? Who knows what they were thinking but this looks like one of the more egregious draft picks we have seen in a long time. Penix is now tumbling down dynasty superflex draft boards which is ironic considering he actually got top-10 draft capital which almost nobody was predicting. But unless Cousins completely flames out in Atlanta or his rehab from last season’s achilles injury does not go as planned, Penix is unlikely to see the field until 2026 at the earliest. Even then, that’s only two years into Cousins’ four-year, $180 million contract. At that point, Penix will be 26-years old. And if Cousins plays out the full four years, Penix will be pushing 30 by the time he gets his shot.
Even if we’re looking at this situation wrong and the Falcons have a plan to start Penix earlier than expected, his fantasy football ceiling is still just as a QB2. It’s unlikely he will ever crack the top-12 quarterbacks on a per game basis. We saw him play for six seasons in college. We know his game. We know he wants to get the ball out quick and he doesn’t run (despite the athleticism to do so).
Considering both angles, Penix should be valued between the 2.02-2.07 range in superflex rookie drafts.
1.09 Rome Odunze, WR, Bears
The Bears have done an incredible job setting up new quarterback Caleb Williams for success. That was true even before they used the No. 9 pick on Washington’s Rome Odunze. While the pick is fantastic for Williams’ outlook, there are certainly questions about Odunze’s early-career role considering he is walking into a wide receiver room that already has two WR1s in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. He will likely be the third wide receiver which will make it difficult for a true rookie season breakout. But Allen is a free agent after the 2024 season, so it should be wheels up for Odunze in 2025. We’ll still get to see enough from him before then to get a good feel for what his role will be and what his fantasy scoring potential looks like heading into that season.
Of course, the risk is they re-sign Allen, reminiscent of the Tyler Lockett for Jaxon Smith-Njigba situation in Seattle. However, we believe Odunze is a better talent than JSN and will be better equipped to overcome his target competition in Chicago especially considering the top-10 draft capital.
Still, this doesn’t change Odunze’s ranking in dynasty. He should still be considered the WR3 in the class and a great pick in the first round of rookie drafts. Be patient with him in 2024, and be ready for a breakout in 2025. He is an incredible talent and would be the WR1 in a lot of other draft classes. Plus he will be tethered to Caleb Williams for the foreseeable future which should be seen as a positive.
1.10 JJ McCarthy, QB, Vikings
JJ McCarthy was the guy all along for the Vikings and they only had to trade up one spot to get him. McCarthy will, in theory, compete with Sam Darnold for the starting job to begin the 2024 season. However, it’s likely we see McCarthy start Week 1 given he was a top-10 pick and coming from a pro style offense at Michigan. The learning curve won’t be quite as steep for him as some other rookie quarterbacks we’ve seen over the years, even if he wasn’t a high volume passer in college. He still started a bunch of games so he has experience plus the physical tools to be the team’s best option right out the gate. He will work closely with head coach and former NFL quarterback Kevin O’Connell much like he did with Jim Harbaugh. Worst case scenario, I think we see McCarthy by Week 4.
McCarthy is blessed with a quarterback-friendly offense and weapons that include Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and Aaron Jones. Long-term, McCarthy will give us similar seasons to what we saw from Kirk Cousins over the last two years in this offense. O’Connell wants to throw the ball at a high rate. We might not see that as much in 2024 as they take it easy with the rookie quarterback, but if he passes all the tests in 2024, we’re going to see a significant rise in pass attempts in 2025 and beyond.
McCarthy is set up beautifully for success and should be the QB4 off the board in dynasty rookie drafts. In superflex, he should be in consideration beginning at pick 1.06.
1.12 Bo Nix, QB, Broncos
Bo Nix is the distributor of the football that Sean Payton was looking for. He will run the offense as designed and play point guard from the pocket. He won’t necessarily be a difference maker or make plays off script, but he can do enough to run an efficient offense and get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. That doesn’t sound too appealing for fantasy football purposes but if he can help propel productive seasons for Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, etc, we will be happy with that. Nix is the rookie QB5 for dynasty purposes and should be a borderline first/second round pick in superflex rookie drafts.
1.13 Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders
The Raiders feel like a weird landing spot for Brock Bowers. Maybe it’s just because not a lot of mock drafts had Vegas as a landing spot for the Georgia tight end, or maybe it’s because the team used a second round pick on the position last year. Either way, it’s certainly not the sexiest spot for Bowers. In the short-term he will be overshadowed by alpha receiver Davante Adams and will have to compete for the middle of the field looks with steady-eddy Jakobi Meyers. He will also need to overcome subpar quarterback play, given the team is in line to roll out a combination of Gardner Minshew and Aiden O’Connell in 2024.
However, Bowers is less quarterback dependent than a guy like Kyle Pitts, for example. That’s because Bowers thrives in the short area and the quick game. He also has the versatility to take carries as well. Bowers will catch a pass in the flat and turn up field and work his way for an 8-10 yard gain. That’s his game, whereas Pitts is more of a down the field guy who operates in the seams and out wide, which is much more reliant on the quarterback than the play call.
It’s very realistic to project Bowers for a top-10 tight end season as a rookie despite the quarterback and offensive environment concerns. He may slip below Xavier Worthy in some rookie rankings but he is still well worthy a first round selection.
1.23 Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jaguars
Brian Thomas Jr. got the draft capital and landed with a team that could use another pass-catcher. However, his skill set feels a bit redundant with free agent addition Gabe Davis. These are both big-bodied X-receivers who are vertical game and red zone specialists. Now, Thomas is more athletic and his ceiling outcome is far better than Davis, but it’s going to be interesting to see how Thomas fits into this offense and what his role is versus Davis.
With that said, we still have to rank Thomas as a top-5 or 6 wide receiver in the rookie class, at least after the first round. Trevor Lawrence has proven to be a quality distributor who can propel his pass catchers to productive seasons. There is some target competition with Davis, Christian Kirk, and tight end Evan Engram, but Thomas has the skill set to develop into a premier playmaker on the outside.
He will also serve as a top red zone target for Lawrence. He won’t match the 17 touchdowns that he scored at LSU last season, but Thomas could have multiple 10+ touchdown seasons in his career if everything hits.
As a rookie, it’s probably going to be a slow start. With the target competition, the redundancy with Davis, plus some areas of his game that we identified as needing development pre draft, Thomas may be one of these guys that waits until year two to really hit. Hopefully, we will see enough flashes of his playmaking ability in 2024 for him to at least retain value heading into a potential 2025 breakout.
1.28 Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs
We could not have asked for anything better for Xavier Worthy. He got the first round draft capital and he is matched up with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid for the foreseeable future. This is a clear effort by the Chiefs to bring back some of what they had with Tyreek Hill and to thwart the difficult shell coverages that defenses have been throwing at them for the last two seasons. Between Worthy and free agent addition Marquise Brown, the Chiefs offense is in line to return to its 2018-2021 form. Worthy is going to be a big part of that. He’s not Tyreek Hill despite the comparisons, but there are enough similarities between their play styles to think Worthy can give us 75% of the production we saw in the prime Mahomes to Hill years.
Worthy may not be a consistent volume commander but he will absolutely have week-winning performances that can make a huge difference in fantasy football. He will be used all over the field and will especially thrive on crossing routes in this offense. It’s realistic to picture him having the third-most productive rookie season out of this year’s class of wide receivers. He now jumps ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. and Brock Bowers in rookie draft rankings. He is the WR4 in the class.
1.31 Ricky Pearsall, WR, 49ers
Ricky Pearsall was a surprise to land in the first round. It certainly leads to speculation that one of Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel will be traded in the near future. With that assumption, Pearsall will project as the team’s No. 2 wide receiver. He will have versatile alignment, playing some slot and some Z. He very much feels like a Kyle Shanahan-type receiver. Not only does he have that versatility, but Pearsall is a crafty route-runner with a high football IQ and toughness. He knows how to find space and get open and will be a reliable chain-mover with some playmaking ability. Target competition aside, Pearsall lands in a great situation with a creative playcaller who utilizes a bunch of pre-snap motion and will find ways to maximize Pearsall’s strengths.
Looking ahead to 2024, we can project Pearsall for a target share somewhere between 10-15%, depending on what happens with the veteran wide receivers on the roster. Even if one of Aiyuk or Samuel gets moved, he will still have to compete for targets with George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey, plus whichever receiver stays, in a run-heavy offense.
Still, Pearsall is a “ready to contribute right now” player with first round draft capital and a fun skill set. He is worth a pick in the early second round of superflex dynasty rookie drafts.
1.32 Xavier Legette, WR, Panthers
The Panthers traded up one pick to select Xavier Legette with the last pick in the first round. Despite Legette saying that the team told him they’d draft him at 33, it was still a surprise to see him drafted this high. Maybe they wanted to secure that fifth-year option because, based on his college history, it might take five years before they get any sort of production out of him. Either way, it feels like doubling down on last year’s mistake of drafting a similar archetype wide receiver with a similarly unproductive college resume in Jonathan Mingo. The first round capital will steam Legette’s rookie draft ADP much higher than it should go which makes him an easy fade. This is this year’s Quentin Johnston. You’ve been warned.
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