Injury Recovery Timetables: Can We Count On Preston Williams, Alshon Jeffery, and Rashaad Penny In 2020?
As fantasy football players we are faced with countless decisions to make during the season. Should I start Player X over Player Y this week? Should I spend up on the hot waiver wire add? Decision making during the draft is just as important. Even though I agree with the saying I have heard around the fantasy community “You don’t win your league at the draft”, having a good draft certainly helps. A big question mark this year are the numerous injuries heading into the season. Weighing all options are key and making a decision on these injured players is tough. It is necessary to take into account each player’s recovery timetable. I am here to help examine the impact on fantasy of players who are entering the season with an injury.
Alshon Jeffery
Alshon is not new to the injury list. Jeffery in fact only played a 16 game season in three seasons since entering the league in the 2012 draft. There’s no denying that Jeffery is one of Carson Wentz’s favorite targets when he is on the field. Key phrase “when he is on the field”. Looks like Jeffery is bound to miss time again this 2020 season.
Alshon Jeffery suffered a LisFranc injury in week 14 of last season. A LisFranc “injury” is either tears or fractures of the bones in the region of the foot known as the midfoot. The midfoot is critical in stabilizing the arch in the foot while walking. This injury can be fairly devastating, especially for a wide receiver who needs to cut and accelerate on every play. Cam Newton last year was battling a LisFranc injury that evidently took him out the whole year.
The Eagles offseason moves and talk leads me to believe that Jeffery’s timetable of return will be in the middle of the season, rather than the beginning. Eagles used their first round draft pick on Jalen Reagor while also acquiring speedster Marquise Goodwin. The Eagles were gearing for a Jeffery absence.
The team then placed Jeffery on the Active/PUP list to start training camp. Active/PUP list is different then reserve/PUP. The Eagles are able to take him off the list with active/PUP if he is able to return to practice during training camp. If he can’t return, he then moves on to the reserve/PUP list before the season starts and then misses the first 6 games of the season, which is what I expect considering the trickiness of LisFranc injuries.
Fantasy Impact
Now what does this mean for the fantasy value of players in the Eagles offense? With Jeffery likely being placed on the reserve/PUP list to start the season and Marquise Goodwin opting out of playing due to COVID-19, Philadelphia is in a similar situation they were in last year. DeSean Jackson seems to be the only proven wide receiver available for Wentz to target if he stays healthy. With how late Jackson is going in drafts lately, he has the most value in this offense as far as pass catchers go.
Now Jackson has injury problems of his own. Eagles rookie Jalen Reagor and second year receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside seem to also be in line for playing time right away. Arcega-Whiteside struggled immensely last year and Reagor is still just a rookie. It looks to me to be turning out to be another year where TEs are the most targeting position in the Eagles offense.
Preston Williams
Preston Williams was a preseason darling this past year that transitioned into the regular season as a reliable fantasy player. That is until he tore his ACL in November. Since the injury came somewhat early in the season, Preston Williams had plenty of time to come back for the start of the season and I fully expect that timetable barring any major setbacks. September will be 10 months from the time of the injury, which is more than enough time to get back to full strength.
All reports out of Miami claim that Williams will be ready by week one. With the recovery time of a torn ACL and players being able to come back fairly quickly without much of a drop off, I don’t doubt Miami’s confidence. He was cleared for full activities, which doesn’t mean he is 100% cleared for a full return in pads but is still a good sign that he is on his way to play at the start of the season.
Fantasy Impact
Once Preston Williams went down with injury, we saw DeVante Parker break out and became a fantasy stud last year. With Williams expected to be back week one, it means Parker and Williams will compete for targets right away. Parker’s time of being a WR1 may be over. Without another injury, both Parker and Preston Williams will take away targets from each other. However, both of the players average draft position takes that into account. Parker’s ADP according to Fantasy Football Calculator is WR32. Williams ADP is WR59. I am comfortable taking both players at their respective draft positions this year.
The one player I am unwilling to bet my chips on this fantasy season due to the injury return of Preston Williams is tight end Mike Gesicki. We remember Gesicki’s end of year stats as he dominated the second half of the year. He started producing exactly when Williams went down with injury in week nine. Over the first eight games, Gesicki totaled 248 total yards and zero touchdowns. That is with Williams in the mix. Gesicki had 322 total yards and five touchdowns on 58 more targets in the final half of the season.
If Ryan Fitzpatrick is the quarterback, I expect the numbers of the back half of the season to regress more towards what we have seen of Gesicki of the past if Williams is back week one. Gesicki’s ADP is TE13 so not a hefty price tag, however, there are tight ends in that range that offer more upside with Hayden Hurst and Jonnu Smith just to name a few.
Chris Carson/ Rashaad Penny
Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny went into the year last year as one of the better running back pairings in the league. Carson got off to a hot start (even with fumbling issues) while Penny began to become fantasy relevant towards the middle portion of the season. Unfortunately, not one but both of the Seattle tandem left last season on the Injured Reserve.
Let’s start with the starting running back. Chris Carson suffered a fracture in his hip in week 16. Sounds bad, doesn’t it? Carson was able to escape surgery on the injury and went straight into rehabilitation. Not many players suffer a fractured hip so history with this injury is vague. We do know that bones tend to heal better then many soft tissue injuries and once that bone is completely healed, it is essentially back to normal.
At this point of the offseason, we have to go off what the organization is telling us with his recovery. Seattle is known to have the most optimistic front office and coach when it comes to speaking about players. Deciphering their talk can be a bit difficult but it is what we have to go off of.
John Schnieder, Seattle Seahawks general manager, came out to the media and stated he believed Carson will be available week one. With the severity of the injury, even if Carson is available week one, he will more than likely be eased back into the offense. If he is eased back, it leaves touches to be had in the first couple of weeks. The injury, however, should not impact much of his fantasy value as he should be playing in week one. Carson will be back to his normal touches just a couple weeks in if not sooner.
See Where Carson & Penny Land In Our Rankings!
Rashaad Penny’s availability is slightly different than Carson’s. Penny was placed on the active/PUP list and is expected to then be placed on reserve/PUP list, meaning he will miss at least the first six weeks of the season. Even the ever so optimistic Pete Carrol, Seahawks head coach, noted the Seahawks are not inclined to rush Penny back from this injury. The team backed up their words with action. Seattle went out of their way to draft a running back in the fourth round and sign free agent running back Carlos Hyde. A team doesn’t sign Carlos Hyde, who has been a workhorse many times in the past, if they don’t plan to use him.
Fantasy Impact
Hyde will presume to be the backup to Carson while Penny is out. However, Hyde may still see a solid workload in the first couple of weeks as Seattle eases Carson back into action as the season starts. Fantasy players should not be worried about taking Chris Carson as their RB2 in drafts this year. Carson is their lead back and as long as he is healthy, he will remain fantasy relevant. Penny on the other hand, is undraftable. With him expected to miss at least the first 6 weeks, he is considered to be a waste of a roster spot until he does in fact come back.
