Week 8 Regression Analysis
Each week this article will highlight players I expect will regress positively and others that I anticipate will regress negatively. It’s the same story every year. A player leaps out to an incredible start, but when the going gets tough around bye weeks and fantasy playoffs, he falters. It’s not his fault, though. He’s just battling regression.
Related | Week 7 Injury Review: Fantasy Football Impact
We won’t be 100% ever in highlighting regression candidates (see 2019 Aaron Jones). However history is on our side. We should expect the regression. Here are my week 8 regression candidates.
Good Things on the Way
Josh Jacobs is one of my favorite regression candidates in week 8. He’s one of two players in my expected fantasy points model who is over 100 yards lower than expected. While his schedule isn’t perfect rest of season, there are some blow up spots that we’ll wish we had Jacobs on our roster. He’s a great buy candidate, even if the cost is still high.
The other RB over 100 yards below expected? Joe Mixon. Similar to Jacobs, Mixon is getting the requisite touches to be successful, but his OL has been banged up. Even when healthy, the Cincinnati OL is arguably bottom 5 in the NFL. However, the volume is what we need to chase here, and Mixon’s schedule is favorable moving forward. Advantageous matchups against Tennessee, Miami, Dallas, and Houston are all on the horizon.
AJ Green has been on a tear recently now that he’s healthy. Totaling 24 targets in his last 2 games, Green is finally getting the peripheral numbers we want to see. The only exception being the touchdown department. He’s the only WR with over 50 targets to have below 30 catches and have 0 touchdowns. Good things should be coming for Green in this pass heavy offense.
Keenan Allen is a nice 69 yards below where we’d expect to see him this year. This is a top 5 variance, and we should attack it. Similar to Jacobs earlier, even if the price is still high, I would be willing to bet on Allen for the price.
Negative Ghost Rider
Don’t take this first paragraph as slander or hate or even regression analysis. Let’s praise the regression invincibility possessed by Aaron Jones. Last year Jones finished 66 fantasy points ABOVE expected mainly thanks to his 19 total touchdowns. He’s currently on pace to score two more touchdowns and out-pacing his 2019 points above expected by 12%! Enjoy this run while you still can.
Miles Sanders hate will not be tolerated. As one of my most rostered players this year, this one hurts. However, he’s the only RB with 30 or more carries to average over 6 yards per carry. Back to back weeks with a 74 yard run will definitely boost that average. In the future, it’s not likely Sanders will return this type of efficiency every week. Be aware.
Alvin Kamara is always a risky highlight in articles like this (just like Aaron Jones). However we have to expect a return from Michael Thomas soon. When he does finally return, Kamara will obviously still be involved, but the short area targets won’t be funneled just to him anymore.
Another slandering of one of my favorite players coming into the season incoming. DK Metcalf is literally in historic territory. Through 6 games, here’s the list of players who have tallied a higher yards/reception than Metcalf with at least 40 targets: Randy Moss, Vincent Jackson. That’s it. I fully expect Metcalf to still have blow up weeks, but his historic efficiency will be hard to maintain.
Speaking of un-maintainable efficiency, here’s the list of players with a higher efficiency than Justin Jefferson through 6 games of their rookie season: Randy Moss. This proves two things to me:
- Randy Moss is the GOAT and no other answer is acceptable
- Justin Jefferson regression is coming.
Even though I highlighted Jefferson as my hot take at the beginning of the year, this efficiency was not expected and can’t be relied on throughout the season.
