Roster Construction Explorer: Draft An Early TE?
Redraft season is on the horizon and roster construction is important to your success in season long leagues. Your roster construction starts during the draft and this series will focus on the “this or that” of selecting a position during the draft and what the ramifications of that selection for your team is.
For this exercise, the position group selected with the first picks will be contrasted by the opposite position in the later pick. For example, if you took a RB in round two vs a WR in round two, the round 10 selection would compare taking a WR to pair with your second round RB and vice versa. All ADP is derived from ffcalculator.com and is based on 12 team PPR. Let’s check out part six.
Draft TE EARLY OR GRAB ANOTHER RB?
Fantasy football is all about gaining a weekly positional advantage over your opponents. In a “start one” position like QB or TE, you could really separate yourself from the pack by selecting an elite player. What are you passing on with this strategy. For this example, let’s look at selected TE Zach Ertz (ADP 50) and RB Devin Singletary (ADP 49). Here’s what they did in 2019.
Ertz – TE4 (215.6 FP) TE4 (14.4 FP/G)
Singletary – RB33 (149.9 FP) RB27 (12.5 FP/G)
Ertz continued to see volume in the Eagles passing attack, but that offense saw long periods where former Alliance of American Football WR Greg Ward was the WR1. Ertz has an extremely competent backup in TE Dallas Goedert as well. With the addition of first round WR Jalen Reagor, a healthy DeSean Jackson, the emergence of RB Miles Sanders as a pass catcher and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside entering his second year in the league, will Ertz see a dip in targets? Singletary popped at times in 2019, but was kept in a committee with the Infinity Stone that is RB Frank Gore. Gore is with the Jets now, but the Bills selected a similar style of RB when the took RB Zach Moss in the fourth round of the 2019 NFL Draft. Moss projects more as a banger than Singletary, could this eat into Singletary’s goal line looks?
WHO TO PAIR?
If you selected Ertz at 50, you could pair him with RB Phillip Lindsay (ADP 101). If you selected Singletary at 49 you could pair him with TE Hunter Henry (ADP 100). Let’s examine their 2019 seasons.
Lindsay – RB20 (197.7 FP) T-RB29 (12.4 FP/G)
Henry – TE9 (150.2 FP) TE8 (12.5 FP/G)
Lindsay continued his magical run from UDFA to NFL starter in 2019 and eclipsed 1,000 yards on the ground for a second straight season. Lindsay pretty much put the RB Royce Freeman hype to bed with both his rushing and receiving ability. QB Drew Lock enters his second year in the NFL and adds first round WR Jerry Jeudy to alpha WR Courtland Sutton. Denver has a good defense too, so Lindsay should see plenty of positive game script. I’m missing something… why is Lindsay’s ADP in the triple digits? Oh, that’s right, the Broncos signed RB Melvin Gordon in free agency. This is a move I questioned for the Broncos (they should have paid up elsewhere on the roster) and this signing crushes the production of Lindsay.
Now clearly the RB2 in Denver, how will Lindsay produce for your fantasy roster? Henry only played in 12 games and still finished as the TE9 overall. This guy is a stud. Yes, he finished 1.9 PPG behind Ertz, but is that really that significant? QB Tyrod Taylor has shown he loves throwing to the TE (remember TE Charles Clay?). If rookie QB Justin Herbert is named the starter, my projections will dip for Henry a bit due to the unknowns of his utilization of the TE position.
2020 PROJECTIONS
VERDICT
I cannot justify missing on a RB who has a legitimate chance to be a bellcow. There is a reality where Lindsay usurps the lead role in Denver, but I think it is more likely that Singletary leads the Buffalo backfield. With the sharp decline of bellcow capable RBs after Singletary comes off the board, the 1.9 PPG advantage I gain by selecting Ertz over Henry isn’t enough for me to draft the early TE here. Give me Devin Singletary at 49 and Hunter Henry at 100 in this one.
What do you think? What would you do?
