The Best Offense Is A Good Defense: Fantasy Football Defenses to Draft and Avoid in 2020
I will never be the first team to reach for a defense. When it comes to the “one-off” positions of Quarterback, Tight End, Kicker, and Defense, I focus on different aspects for each, even if streaming all four is a possibility throughout the year. When looking at the QB and TE positions, there are players every year that start in the later rounds and become every-week starters. Mark Andrews, Lamar Jackson, and Darren Waller come to mind from those positions just last year. For these positions, I spend hours searching for that player that can take that next step and blossom into a star in 2020.
However, for Kicker and Defense, my strategy completely changes. According to FantasyPros fantasy finishes for each of the past three years, only two team defenses have finished in the top ten in overall points in each of the past three years. Those two would be the Baltimore Ravens and the Los Angeles Rams. That fact alone demonstrates the volatility that Team Defense presents for fantasy each year. Additionally, 2018’s #1 overall fantasy defense, the Chicago Bears, fell all the way to #17 in 2019.
Unlike for the other positions, defenses drastically change from one year to another. As such, when I enter a fantasy football draft for the 2020 season, I choose my defense based entirely on their week one matchup. While teams change drastically from one season to the next, streaming a defense allows us to be more adaptable when it comes to those changes. As such, teams with “positive” week one matchups can prove to be pivotal to give your team an advantage that first week. Below is a list of three defense to target in your fantasy football draft and two to avoid to get a head start in 2020.
DRAFTING: Buffalo Bills
Week One Matchup: New York Jets
Talk about a dream matchup. As a defense in 2019, the Bills were consistently average. They finished 2019 as the #15 defense, scoring a total of 107 points in FantasyPros’ default settings. However, in terms of fantasy points allowed by the Bills, opposing offenses struggled. Buffalo gave up on average the fourth-least amount of fantasy points in 2019. Clearly, their defense is getting the results even if it isn’t fully transitioning to fantasy.
While their defense may leave something to be desired, their matchup is mouth-watering. The New York Jets Offense ranked 32nd in yards per game, 31st in rushing yards and 31st in points scored per game. Additionally, the Jets gave up the 10th most turnovers in 2019 with 25 and the 4th most sacks with a whopping 52! Then, the Jets ended up losing their primary receiver in Robby Anderson during the offseason. All in all, with Tre’Davious White not opting out for the 2020 season, the Bills are a great fantasy football defense to target in Week One.
DRAFTING: Philadelphia Eagles
Week One Matchup: Washington Football Team
A bit further down the average ADP list than Buffalo we have the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are currently being drafted as the 16th defense off the board in ESPN drafts. Overall, for the number of injuries that the Eagles had in 2019, the defense outperformed their expectations, finishing at 15th (fantasy points scored). On defense, the Eagles lost Nigel Bradham, Kamu Krugier-Hill, Ronald Darby, Timmy Jernigan, Jalen Mills, and Hassan Ridgeway among others for multiple games in 2019. Without all of those pieces, a top-half finish in 2019 is impressive. With most, if not all of those pieces back in 2020, the Eagles look to easily outpace that finish.
Enter their opponent, the Washington Football Team. Washington was horrendous in 2019. As an offense, Washington scored just 16.6 points per game, good for last in the league. True to form, Washington ranked 31st in total yards, last in passing yards, and 22nd in rushing yards. Additionally, Washington had 21 giveaways and gave up the 5th most sacks in the NFL, with 50. As the offense did not make any major transactions in the off-season and lost arguably their most talented RB in Derrius Guice, the Eagles should feast Week One.
DRAFTING: Tennessee Titans
Week One Matchup: Denver Broncos
With the emergence of Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry in the second half of 2019, the Titans finished a respectable 11th with 131 fantasy points. The defense racked up the 11th most takeaways and an above-average number of sacks, with 43. Additionally, the Titans only gave up more than 24 points once after their Week 11 bye. With second-year player Harold Landry leading the way with 9 sacks, off-season additions that include Cameron Wake, Jack Crawford, and the additions of Kristian Fulton and Larrell Murchison in the draft, the Titans look to build upon their successful 2019.
Meanwhile, the Broncos offense has made a multitude of off-season moves this year, including Melvin Gordon and Jerry Jeudy. However, their offense sorely needed these additions. In 2019, the Broncos ranked 29th in total yards, 28th in passing yards, and 28th in total points. The Broncos did not have many turnovers during the year (16, 6th most in the league). However, in Drew Lock‘s five starts, he had six turnovers, with three interceptions and three fumbles. This translates to a 19 turnover pace for Lock alone over 16 games. While Lock does have a full off-season to improve, he presents an opportunity for the Titans to get off to a hot start Week One. At their current ADP of Defense #21, they present a great streaming option to get your year off right.
AVOIDING: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week One Matchup: New Orleans Saints
The Buccaneers are currently being drafted at Defense #11 per ESPN ADP. This is off the back of a 10th place finish in 2019. The Bucs finished this high by totaling the 5th most turnovers (to combat with their league-leading 41 giveaways. Thanks Jameis). With the addition of Tom Brady, the defense will likely be in better game scripts throughout the year, which could lead to better production. The Bucs were also able to keep their vital pieces on defense including Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul.
However, they may have received the worst possible matchup to start the season. The New Orleans Saints were a nightmare for opposing teams to play last year. Collectively, the Saints had just eight giveaways which was five less than any other team in football. Additionally, the Saints gave up the third-least amount of sacks with only 25, which is less than two per game. As the Saints retained all of their major offensive pieces and added Emmanuel Sanders in the off-season, they look primed to repeat their impressive form against fantasy defenses. The Bucs are a prime target to pick up off waivers in Week 3 against the Broncos, but they are not worth an early selection as the 11th ranked defense off the board.
AVOIDING: Houston Texans
Week One Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs
A top-three defense just two years ago, the Houston Texans took a monumental step back in 2019, falling all the way to #22. The defense lost major contributors throughout the year to injury, including J.J. Watt, who was placed on the IR in week 9 to repair a torn pectoral muscle. With Watt back, many fans of the team are hoping for a bounce-back season from the defense.
However, the season does not start off well at all. The defending Super-Bowl Champions Kansas City Chiefs start the season off for this questionable defense. The Chiefs ranked 6th in total yards, 5th in passing yards, 5th in points scored, and 3rd in total giveaways with just 15 over the year. These finishes include multiple games where the Chiefs lost either Patrick Mahomes or Tyreek Hill to injury. With those concerns for the Texans, and facing a top-three NFL offense in Week One, the Texans are a defense to avoid in drafts.
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