Fantasy Football: 21 Players To Target In 2021
After months and months of research, discussions, and (a lot) of drafting, I have a number of players who I feel strongly about heading into 2021. While I have written about, tweeted about, or talked about most of these guys at one point or another this summer, I thought it would be a good idea to bring them all together in one spot. That brings us to here—my 21 players to target in 2021 fantasy football drafts.
Bryan Edwards, WR, Raiders
Bryan Edwards is getting plenty of preseason and training camp buzz. While his ADP has moved as a result, it’s still far from where he should be. Edwards checked all the boxes coming out of South Carolina. He broke out at age 17 and had a 94th-percentile College Dominator Rating despite playing alongside Deebo Samuel and Shi Smith. He had the size and skill set to be an alpha wide receiver. His only competition for targets outside of tight end Darren Waller are a pair of undersized field-stretchers. Before suffering a season-derailing injury early in the season, Edwards was seeing starter reps. He was on the field for 75-percent of snaps in Week 1 and 61.6-percent in Week 2. He’s a monster after the catch and should have little trouble significantly out-performing his late-round ADP.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks
The 2020 campaign was a tale of two seasons for the Seahawks offense. That was no different for wide receiver Tyler Lockett. He was the overall WR1 in PPR scoring from Weeks 1-8. That included two weeks as the top-scorer. But then he suffered a knee sprain and only had two more top-12 performances the rest of the way. Even still, Lockett finished the season as the WR12 on a per-game basis. He went over 1,000 yards and scored 10 touchdowns on 100 receptions.
With a new offensive coordinator, the pick of D’Wayne Eskridge in the second round, and free agency addition of Gerald Everett, all indications are the team wants to throw the ball more in 2021 than they did in the second half of last year. That would certainly benefit Lockett, who saw nearly 25-percent of the targets in 2020. The Seahawks have one of the most consolidated passing games in the league with little target competition outside of Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Lockett presents a safe floor while a full season of “letting Russ cook” would surely unlock a clear path to another top-12 finish.
Damien Harris, RB, Patriots
Damien Harris is the locked-in early-down workhorse and goal line back in New England. It’s no secret that the Patriots want to run the ball. They were third in rush attempts last year and had the second-highest run rate in neutral game scripts. There’s no reason to think that will change in 2021. They have a top-five offensive line and will be playing a ton of 12-personnel with the additions of Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. With Mac Jones named as the starting quarterback, we can project more goal line opportunities (less Cam Newton vultures) for Harris. The Patriots will continue to pound the rock at one of the highest rates in the league.
Harris was efficient with his opportunities last year, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, despite facing a stacked front 42.3-percent of the time, the second-highest rate among all running backs. He won’t be involved much as a pass-catcher, but that is already baked into his cost. Still, Harris is one of the last starting running backs to come off the board, making him a fantastic value.
Trey Sermon, RB, 49ers
Like Damien Harris, Trey Sermon is one of the last starting running backs left on draft boards. Unlike Harris, though, Sermon is likely to share the backfield early in the season. The expectation is that he will eventually take over as the lead dog.
Sermon dominated at the end of his collegiate career. He racked up 331 rushing yards in the Big Ten Championship Game and 193 in the semifinals against Clemson. Sermon isn’t the fastest, but he is plenty athletic with a 79th-percentile Agility Score and 81st-percentile Burst Score (PlayerProfiler). He showed that off with 16 carries of 15 yards or more in 2020. The Niners targeted the Ohio State runner with a trade up into the third round. That’s significant. The team has shown time and time again that they can be highly productive running the football with less than top-level talents in their backfield. We’ve seen weeks where guys like Jeff Wilson, Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and even JaMychal Hasty have been very fantasy relevant. To me, the move to use day two capital while also trading up to do it, is telling us the Niners really like this player and have a plan to use him.
Sermon’s one-cut-and-go running style fits the San Francisco offense well. He’ll likely be the team’s grinder back with upside to be the high-volume, early-down and short-yardage guy. That role will have even more potential for fantasy points if (when) the team turns the keys to the offense over to their electric rookie quarterback. A rushing quarterback naturally opens up run lanes for the running backs. And a better, more efficient offense is always positive for a running back’s upside. The team also added guard Aaron Banks in the second round and Center Alex Mack in free agency, which will only help the running game further.
Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals
In six games before injuries ended his season, Mixon had a stranglehold on the backfield work. His 81.5-percent Opportunity Share ranked second among all running backs while his 68.8-percent Snap Share eighth. He averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game which included a No.1 overall finish against Jacksonville. Mixon accounted for ⅓ of the team’s touchdowns in the six games he was active. An improved offense, even if pass-heavy, will benefit Mixon too. It provides more valuable opportunities in the form of targets and red zone touches.
Michael Gallup, WR, Cowboys
Many have ignored Michael Gallup after a mostly disappointing 2020 campaign. But we have to remember how bad things were for the Dallas offense last year after losing their starting quarterback. Even while playing most of the season with Andy Dalton under center, Gallup managed three top-10 WR performances. The Cowboys are getting back quarterback Dak Prescott which will help propel the entire Dallas offense. They project to be one of the highest pass volume teams in the league again and they garner one of the easiest pass schedules in 2021. With how poor their defense is, and how explosive some of their opponents’ offenses are, the Cowboys will find themselves in numerous shootouts like we saw in early 2020. Gallup may be the greatest benefactor of the team’s need to go up and down the field. Out of he, Amari Cooper, and CeeDee Lamb, it’s Gallup who gets those high-value downfield targets and red zone looks. There has also been discussion from the team that he will get more opportunities from the slot as well which will improve both his volume and efficiency numbers.
Mike Williams, WR, Chargers
I want pieces of the Chargers offense. Williams is a perfect fit with Justin Herbert who is not afraid to chuck it deep to his contested catch specialist. Williams is in for a career year.
Adam Trautman, TE, Saints
Adam Trautman is the TE1 on a team without an established top wideout (at least until Thomas returns). He’s good.
Chris Carson, RB, Seahawks
Chris Carson seems to be undervalued every year. Yet, when he’s healthy, he’s one of the most consistent running backs in fantasy football. He seems to always be producing low-end RB1/high-end RB2 numbers. That was no different in 2020 when he ranked 11th with 15.7 fantasy points per game. Many think of him as a between the tackles grinder, but the Seahawks trust him in an every down role. His 11.5-percent Target Share last season was 16th among all running backs. He ranked top-12 in yards per route, yards per reception, and catch rate. There’s no other backs on that team that threaten Carson’s workload. We want the all-purpose back in the Russell Wilson offense where there’s opportunity to get on the field a lot, see red zone looks, and score points. Carson is a fantastic value in the fourth round.
Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals
This is going to be an electric offense. Tee Higgins played well as a rookie, scoring as a top-15 wide receiver four times before Burrow went down. With Ja’Marr Chase struggling early, Higgins will retain alpha status in one of the league’s most explosive pass offenses.
Myles Gaskin, RB, Dolphins
Everything is right in the world again. Okay, maybe not everything, but at least Myles Gaskin is back in the role we were expecting. After giving us a scare in Week 1 of the preseason where Malcolm Brown was running with the first team and Gaskin with the twos, Gaskin was back on top in Week 2. While Tua Tagovailoa was on the field, Gaskin played over 50-percent of the running back snaps, and was the only back to take snaps on third down or inside the 10-yard line. It’s clear Gaskin is back atop the depth chart (not sure he ever really left), much like he was last season. Gaskin finished the year top-10 in both snap share and opportunity share among all running backs. Even when he missed some time due to injury, he returned to assume the same heavy-usage he had been receiving prior to going out. That was despite Salvon Ahmed playing well in his absence. There’s no reason to believe the Dolphins would change their feeling about his ability to be the workhorse now.
Gaskin is a proven workhorse. During his time at the University of Washington, Gaskin ran for no less than 1,268 yards in each of his four seasons with more than 220 carries and double-digit touchdowns every year. He was quietly one of the most effective pass-catching running backs in the league in 2020. While averaging 4.7 targets per game (13.4% Target Share), Gaskin racked up 388 receiving yards, the seventh most of all running backs. He averaged 9.5 yards per reception (No.1) and his 2.08 yards per route were top-3, as was his 87.2% catch rate. He even took 18 (No.10) snaps from the slot. (PlayerProfiler) Gaskin was just as efficient on the ground. He managed to evade 50 tackles (No.16) and had a Juke Rate (evaded tackles per touch) of 27.3% (No.13). (PlayerProfiler) The Dolphins used him in the red zone a ton, as he had 42 red zone touches (4.2/game). He finished as the RB10 in fantasy scoring on a per game-basis (16.4 fantasy points per game). In his 10 games, Gaskin finished as an RB1 three times and was in the top-24 on eight occasions. When it mattered most, Gaskin delivered 169 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns while finishing fantasy championship week as the overall RB2.
Everything is looking good for Gaskin to smash his ADP in 2021. He should continue to hog the backfield touches in one of the league’s fastest ascending offenses. The offense will be both more efficient and more explosive. That means more plays, more trips to the red zone, and more scoring opportunities for a guy like Gaskin. He is an absolute steal at cost with upside to finish as an RB1.
Chase Edmonds, RB, Cardinals
The departure of Kenyan Drake left behind 270 touches. There’s no way in hell that James Conner absorbs all of those. That leaves Chase Edmonds in line for a significant workload, especially in the passing game. We know Edmonds can get it done in that area. In 2020, Edmonds had a 12.3-percent target share and ranked sixth among all running backs in total targets (68). Edmonds ran 289 routes and averaged 5.7 yards per touch. Again, that was in a complimentary role behind Drake who was seventh in targets himself. We know Edmonds can handle a healthy workload, he did it in college. He had over 250 carries in three of his four collegiate seasons. He doesn’t have to be a bellcow back to outperform his mid-round ADP. A very reasonable 12 carries per game would put him over the 200-carry mark. Add that to his significant work in the passing game and, boom, we have a guy ready to smash his ADP.
Antonio Brown, WR, Buccaneers
Antonio Brown may not be the elite-level receiver he was in his Pittsburgh days, but his 2020 season proved he still can play at a high level. From pretty much the minute he joined the team in the middle of the season, Brown was a big part of the Buccaneers offense. Over the last nine weeks of the regular season, Brown was a top-24 WR in fantasy points per game. According to PlayerProfiler.com, Brown had an elite Hog Rate (targets per snap) of 20.1-percent (No.2) with a 95.7-percent (No.5) True Catch Rate. From Week 9 through the Superbowl, Brown had more targets than Chris Godwin (just two fewer than Mike Evans) and led the Bucs in receptions. I won’t go as far as saying he should be going ahead of Godwin and Evans, but the trio should at least be closer in ADP. When we factor in cost, AB is the Tampa Bay wide receiver to target in drafts.
Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals
Tyler Boyd is the starting slot receiver in what is expected to be one of the league’s most explosive passing offenses. Sure, the team added stud rookie Ja’Marr Chase, but that won’t impact Boyd’s role in the offense. If anything, it may even help open up the underneath passing game a bit. Chase is expected to start osn the outside opposite Tee Higgins, while Boyd, who played 76.6-percent of his snaps in the slot in 2020, will continue to man the middle of the field. The Bengals ran 11-personnel 76-percent of the time last year, meaning we know Boyd will be on the field plenty. In Joe Burrow’s 11 starts, it wasn’t AJ Green or Higgins leading the team in target share—it was Boyd. The fact that he is available in the ninth and 10th rounds on Sleeper and Yahoo! is absolutely criminal.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins
The Dolphins set out this offseason to build around their second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. In doing so they added two explosive weapons. Will Fuller comes over to Houston to sit in the WR1 chair. Fuller provides the game-changing impact that this offense so desperately needed. Before his suspension late in 2020, Fuller was having a career year. He was WR7 with 17.2 fantasy points per game. His ability to get open deep will open up everything for this offense. The team also added the speedy Jaylen Waddle with the sixth overall pick in the draft. He’ll provide another dangerous weapon who can thrive in all quadrants of the field. Of course, they still have established veterans like DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki who have each had highly productive stretches over the last two years.
The upgrade in weaponry will undoubtedly help Tagovailoa take the next step in his second season. We forget how good of a prospect he was coming out of Alabama. We can attribute last year’s struggles to many factors like coming off major hip surgery, missing out on the offseason program due to COVID, and a lackluster group of pass-catchers. Tua is super accurate and he has some rushing ability as well (three rushing touchdowns in 2020). With everything falling into place for him in 2021, it’s not hard to see a season where he throws for 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns. The offense will be much more explosive and efficient than we saw last season. That means Fuller, Waddle, Gesicki, and Parker are all guys we want to target in our fantasy drafts. And if these guys are going to thrive, then that means Tua will be a breakout performer as well.
Blake Jarwin, TE, Cowboys
With Jason Witten out of the picture, Blake Jarwin was poised for a breakout heading into 2020. He even signed a big contract extension before the season. But just 25 snaps into the first game, the wrath of the year 2020 took him out with a season-ending ACL tear. Instead, it was Dalton Schultz playing the TE1 role in Dallas. Schultz ran the third most routes of any tight end and finished with over 60 receptions and more than 600 yards. He was TE18 on the year in PPR fantasy points per game and his 89 targets were the ninth most at the position.
A healthy Jarwin is a far superior pass catcher than his 2020 fill-in, so he’ll be able to extend those numbers further with similar opportunity. He is one of the more athletic tight ends in the league with above average speed and burst. Playing behind Witten in 2019, Jarwin was top-12 in Yards Per Reception, No.6 in Yards Per Target, and No.8 in Target Premium. He was also eighth with 2.37 yards per route and top-five in Fantasy Points Per Route (PlayerProfiler).
The Cowboys are getting back quarterback Dak Prescott which will only help propel all Dallas pass-catchers further. They project to be one of the highest pass volume teams in the league again and they garner one of the easiest pass schedules in 2021. With how poor their defense is, and how explosive some of their opponents’ offenses are, the Cowboys will find themselves in numerous shootouts like we saw in early 2020. While there are certainly many “mouths to feed” in Dallas, Jarwin will see enough volume to propel his breakout season.
Remember, even Schultz saw almost 90 targets last year. Jarwin is effective after the catch and presents an explosive element in the middle of the field. He is bound to see a number of red zone opportunities given his size and how often the offense will be inside the 20. Everything lines up for Jarwin to be a top-12 TE. He may have a couple quiet outings given the other options in the offense, but he will be a top-5 scorer on multiple occasions.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Lions
Don’t be afraid of the poor offense. With how many targets Swift is going to get, it won’t matter. 100 targets + 200 carries = fantasy stud.
Tyler Higbee, TE, Rams
Tyler Higbee was pumped up in 2020 drafts coming off a strong finish to the 2019 season. In four games without fellow Rams tight end Gerald Everett, Higbee went off. He averaged 22 fantasy points per game, 8.5 receptions, 11 targets, and 104.5 receiving yards. It was a monster run that propelled him to a TE8 finish on the year. But for those of us who actually take a closer look at the data, it was obvious Higbee would not be able to replicate his 2019 performance. His splits with Everett in the lineup were shocking when compared to his four games without him. As it turns out, those who didn’t buy the hype were right.
But what is different now that makes him a guy to target in 2021? Firstly, Everett is gone. That launches Higbee up to the TE1 spot all by himself. That’s a great start. Secondly, the Rams made a massive upgrade at quarterback with the addition if Matthew Stafford. Stafford will take the Rams offense to the next level and unlock elements of the Sean McVay offense that we have yet to see. A better offense will only be good for Higbee. The offense will undoubtedly make more trips to the red zone, where a guy of Higbee’s size and ability will thrive. He is going at a much more reasonable cost than he was at this time last year, so if you miss out on Kittle, Kelce, and Waller, Higbee is a good option.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles
Jalen Hurts was an elite fantasy producer late in 2020. He threw for over 300 yards in two of his three full starts. The other? He ran for over 100 yards. We want our quarterback to run the ball. The top-10 quarterbacks last year averaged 416.5 rush yards on the season. QBs 11-20 averaged 163.8. The Konami Code is alive and well. It’s in Hurts’ range of outcomes to be the first quarterback to rush for 1,000 yards and pass for 4,000 yards. He may not be the long-term answer in Philly, but for 2021, Jalen Hurts will be a fantasy stud.
Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
Prescott had the offense on a historic pace in 2020 before he went down. They averaged 395 yards (less than 200 with Andy Dalton) and nearly 33 points per game in his five starts. Both the offense and Prescott himself were operating at an elite level of efficiency, scoring 2.64 points per possession (PlayerProfiler.com). They project to be one of the highest pass volume teams in the league again and they garner one of the easiest pass schedules in 2021. With how poor their defense is, and how explosive some of their opponents’ offenses are, the Cowboys will find themselves in numerous shootouts like we saw in early 2020.
TJ Hockenson, TE, Lions
We know Jared Goff isn’t going to throw the ball down the field. And even if he wanted to, who is he throwing to? This offense is going to go through two guys: D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson.
Pour one out for…
Cam Akers, RB, Rams
Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars
Michael Thomas, WR, Saints
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens
