Exploiting Fantasy Football ADP on ESPN, Yahoo!, NFL, And Sleeper
Each fantasy site has their own fantasy football ADP (average draft position) that is heavily influenced by that particular site’s rankings. In a day and age where information is so readily available, this ADP data is truly one of the most exploitable aspects in fantasy football today.
The best part about exploiting ADP? Each site will give you a built in advantage no matter where you play. Each website’s analysts will have their specific draft crushes and guys they’re low on. This is where we make our money.
Let’s dive into the ADP on each popular fantasy football website that we normally play on: ESPN, NFL.com, Yahoo, CBS, and Sleeper. I’ll touch on guys that I think are going too early and guys that are going to late for each site. This will give you a good blueprint for who to attack no matter what site you’re playing on.
I won’t touch on the same player at every site (i.e. Miles Sanders is too low everywhere). I’ll try and find where each player is lowest and bring them up there.
ESPN
Carson Wentz is currently going as the QB11 around pick 107. With great RB options, two healthy veteran WRs, a new toy in rookie Jalen Reagor, and the best TE duo in the NFL, Wentz is a lock to finish top 8 if he and his weapons stay healthy.
Aaron Jones is currently going at 1.12. With Chubb, Drake, Jacobs, Sanders, and Mixon going after him, it’s a no-brainer avoid. Jones is currently in line to be the lead man in Green Bay, but each coaching staff has been hesitant to give him bell cow status. Green Bay drafted AJ Dillon and Jamaal Williams is still on the roster.
David Johnson is currently being drafted at RB19 around pick 41. Remember this is the same guy who looked like a shell of himself at the end of 2019. With almost all of the rookie RBs and guys like James Conner and Kareem Hunt being drafted after him, it’s an easy decision to avoid Johnson.
Zach Ertz is being drafted as the TE3 around pick 40 according to ESPN fantasy football ADP data. While Ertz has only missed one game in the past two years, he has quite an injury history that includes multiple concussions and ligament injuries. I love Ertz as a player, but the next guy I mention plus countless others are proof that you don’t have to go TE early.
Jonnu Smith is currently being drafted at TE20 around pick 168 in ESPN fantasy football ADP. With over 100 targets up for grabs in Tennessee and Delanie Walker finally gone, Smith is poised for an awesome breakout. It doesn’t make sense to go TE early when you have guys like Smith almost going undrafted.
NFL.com
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is drafted as the RB27 around pick 90. This is unforgivable for a fantasy website to be so low on a first round rookie RB in the best offense in the NFL. Getting a bona fide RB1 candidate in the ninth round is atrocious. If you want to try fantasy football on easy mode, check out NFL.com.
Other RB options going incredibly low on NFL.com are Kenyan Drake, Kareem Hunt, Jonathan Taylor, and Cam Akers. Each of these options are going as the RB22, RB28, RB39, and RB44 respectively. It’s honestly impressive how bad those average draft positions are. Waiting to draft RBs on NFL will yield you two RB1s and multiple high end options going past the 13th round.
Cooper Kupp is going incredibly early in NFL.com drafts. Being drafted as the WR10 around pick 29, Kupp is being drafted at a place that is above his ceiling. That price is ridiculous for a player who might not be the #1 option on his team. Robert Woods, on the other hand, is going as the WR25. This is one of the purest definitions of arbitrage in fantasy.
Terry McLaurin and Juju Smith-Schuster are both going after the 8th round. Let that sink in. If you’re not jumping at the chance to dominate your friends by playing on NFL.com, you’re missing out on some serious value.
Yahoo!
Calvin Ridley is curently being drafted around pick 55 in Yahoo drafts. This is eerily reminiscent of Chris Godwin’s 5th round fantasy football ADP last year. Ridley is poised for a huge breakout, and you should jump on the train while you can.
Michael Gallup is falling off draft boards in the 9th round. For a team that has at least 235 targets up for grabs in 2020, Gallup is being criminally undervalued on Yahoo.
Tyler Higbee is currently being drafted as the TE9 around pick 78. With the Rams wanting to move forward with a slightly different offense featuring two TEs, this ADP is really risky for Higbee. Gerald Everett was the starter before being injured, and he’s currently not being drafted in Yahoo leagues.
CBS
Josh Allen is astoundingly being drafted as the QB5 on CBS. That’s ahead of Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray. I don’t care what growth he sees in 2020 or what additions were made on the offensive side in Buffalo, this price is too rich.
While we’re at it, CBS is the worst when it comes to QBs Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Both are being drafted in the top eight of all drafts. 1st round QBs are a big no-no for me, as the opportunity cost is way too high to provide profit.
DK Metcalf is a clear draft crush for me in 2020, and he’s being drafted lowest on CBS. At pick 71, Metcalf is a screaming value who could return big rewards with his high TD upside.
Another incredible WR value on CBS comes in the form of DJ Chark. He’s currently being drafted around pick 86. Chark is the WR1 where he’ll get funneled targets in Jacksonville, and he’ll definitely provide profit there.
Darren Waller is consistently going about 20 picks later on CBS than any other platform. Waller is still likely to be the #1 option in Las Vegas. He’s also due for some positive TD regression in 2020.
Sleeper Fantasy Football
Devante Parker is a rare example of the fifth year breakout WR. In 2020, with a mix of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tua Tagovailoa at QB, the offense for Miami should at least repeat their 2019 performance. If they improve over the previous year, Parker will easily out perform his 70th overall pick on Sleeper.
Speaking of Miami WRs, Preston Williams is another draft crush of mine that I’m scooping up everywhere I can. As the WR57, Williams will absolutely smash his fantasy football ADP with a healthy season.
A newly acquired player doesn’t always slot right in to the vacancy left by a free agent. Take Hayden Hurst for example. He’s going at pick 78 on Sleeper, and this is incredibly high for a player learning a new offense. The only reason Hurst is being drafted this high is because he was mistakenly drafted in the first round in 2018.
Let’s say you’re absolutely determined to draft a TE late. Like you’re likely going to draft a TE after your kicker and defense. Look no further than Will Dissly. Dissly is going at pick 408. No, that’s not a typo. He’s going un-drafted. Dissly has incredible TD upside, and when going TE late, that’s the main criteria I look for.
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