Dynasty Fantasy Football Winners and Losers from the 2024 NFL Draft
NFL Draft Aftermath: Dynasty Winners & Losers
257 picks later, and we are finally through the 2024 NFL Draft. While every team added talent, some picks had more of a dynasty fantasy football ripple effect than others. Here are my dynasty fantasy football winners and losers post 2024 NFL Draft.
Winner: Caleb Williams – QB, Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams received similar pre-draft treatment as Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence: everyone knew they were going first overall years before they were draft eligible. But neither Luck or Lawrence landed in the situation Williams did.
The draft capital the Bears received for their 2023 1st overall pick from the Panthers is remarkable.
While this secured Williams landing in Chicago, it also landed their WR1 in DJ Moore. Add in veteran tight end Cole Kmet, along with pass catching additions this offseason in running back D’Andre Swift, wideout Keenan Allen, and 9th overall pick Rome Odunze. I can’t remember of a 1st overall pick having this much talent around him to start his career.
Shane Waldron will be Williams’ offensive coordinator to start his career. Waldron was the OC the past three years in Seattle, where the Seahawks finished 27th, 22nd, and 31st, respectively, in rush attempts. Seattle’s quarterback room averaged 547 attempts for the season (32.2/gm). For comparison, CJ Stroud had 499 attempts in 15 starts as a rookie (33.3/gm). Given Williams’ pedigree and landing spot, Williams has the opportunity to produce early in his career. I would expect him to remain as the top pick in superflex dynasty rookie drafts, and could see him go as high as 4th overall in one quarterback dynasty rookie drafts.
Loser: Justin Herbert – QB, Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert’s dynasty fantasy football stock has taken a dip this offseason. The arrival of new head coach Jim Harbaugh signaled the arrival of a head coach with winning experience. However, the signing of Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator does not bode well for Herbert’s fantasy football value. This will be Roman’s 11th season as an offensive coordinator; in nine of the ten previous seasons, Roman’s offenses ranked in the bottom-five of pass attempts (28.8/gm). For reference, Herbert’s lowest per game total was last season (35.1) where he finished as QB9 on a per-game basis.
Keenan Allen was traded to the Bears this offseason, and Mike Williams was released and later signed with the Jets. They did trade up in the second round to draft Ladd McConkey from Georgia. Along with McConkey, Joshua Palmer and last year’s first round pick Quentin Johnston are the expected top options for Herbert. All signs point to a ground and pound Chargers’ offense, which does not fit well with Herbert’s skillset from a fantasy football perspective.
Winner: Rhamondre Stevenson – RB, New England Patriots
The 26-year old Stevenson is coming off an injury-plagued 2023 season where he missed five games. However, there is hope he bounces back to his 2022 form where he finished as the RB10 (RB13 PPG).
Ezekiel Elliott split time with Stevenson last year; Elliott is currently a free agent. The Patriots signed Antonio Gibson this season, who has averaged just 10.5 carries per game over his four year career. Gibson will likely cut into Stevenson’s role in the passing game; Gibson averages 43 receptions per season. The Patriots invested in the offensive side of the ball this draft, with their first five selections coming on that side of the ball.
Alex Van Pelt is the new offensive coordinator for the Patriots; he has five years as an offensive coordinator: one in Buffalo in 2009, and the last four years in Cleveland. While Stefanski called the plays in Cleveland, it’s a similar split to his lone season in Buffalo – 51% pass, 49% run.
Stevenson is entering his fourth year in the league at 26-years old. While this is not an ideal age for dynasty running backs, Stevenson could return to low-end RB1 status this year. This pre-rookie draft window could be an opportune buy low window for Stevenson, and he could be a sell high during the season or next offseason.
Loser: Michael Mayer & Brock Bowers – TE, Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders have invested high draft capital in two tight ends the past two years. A year ago, Michael Mayer went 35th overall, one spot behind Sam LaPorta. This year, they invested the 13th overall pick on Brock Bowers.
Mayer will have an uphill battle to climb; he ranked fourth on the team with 27 receptions on 40 targets for 304 yards and two scores as a rookie. Bowers will as well – an ideal landing spot would have him as the 2nd option. Davante Adams will lead the team in targets. Jakobi Meyers will pose a threat as the 2nd option; he has at least 800 yards and 67 receptions in the last three seasons.
New Raiders offensive coordinator could make this work based on his play calling the last two years in Chicago.
While the Bears had a mobile quarterback in Justin Fields the last two years, they averaged just 26.2 pass plays per game. Based on the tight end target share with Getsy, that’s only 6 targets to tight ends per game.
If this 12 personnel rate holds true with the addition of Gardner Minshew, neither will lose too much dynasty value. But both players’ dynasty fantasy football value definitely took a hit this week.
Winner: Dalton Kincaid – TE, Buffalo Bills
We likely forget about Dalton Kincaid’s rookie season due to Sam LaPorta’s breakout. But Kincaid was still productive: 73 receptions on 91 targets for 673 yards. His two touchdowns killed his fantasy production, finishing as the TE17 (TE19 in PPG).
Fast forward to 2024 – Stefon Diggs was traded to Houston. Gabriel Davis signed with the Jaguars this offseason. That’s 241 targets up for grabs, 44.2% of Josh Allen’s pass attempts from a season ago. That’s also 15 of Allen’s 29 passing touchdowns coming available.
While many thought the Bills would add multiple weapons in the draft, they opted for one – 33rd overall pick Keon Coleman. Curtis Samuel was also signed this offseason, but but has peaked at 105 targets in his seven-year career. Given the current landscape of the Bills and what should be positive touchdown regression, we could see Kincaid take over as the TE1 for dynasty fantasy football.
RANKINGS | DYNASTY | Rookies
