DraftKings Week 8: Cheap Plays With Massive Upside
Let’s get right into it, these are some of the top lower priced/high upside plays on DraftKings for Week 8.
Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals
We are going to keep rolling out Joe Burrow. He leads the NFL in in pass attempts and brings the rushing upside we look for in a high-upside GPP quarterback. Burrow is coming off his best game to date with nearly 40 DraftKings points against Cleveland last week when he threw for 406 yards and three touchdowns on 47 pass attempts. He added 34 yards and a score on six rushes. Yet, somehow, he is still outside the top-10 on the main slate this week. Keep putting him out there until they get the pricing right.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers
Brandon Aiyuk is coming off his best career game with 115 yards on six receptions (seven targets) in last Sunday’s win over New England. He led the Niners in targets and receptions and is in line for more work in Week 8 with Deebo Samuel out with a hamstring injury. Aiyuk has operated as San Francisco’s WR1 all season so this won’t be anything new for the rookie first-rounder. Aiyuk has a Route Participation of 97.5-percent and is No.18 in Red Zone Targets. He has displayed impressive ability as a runner on jet sweeps and in Yards After Catch where he ranks No.24 among all wideouts.
Aiyuk gets a dream matchup in Week 8 against a Seattle team that has been historically bad against the pass and has surrendered the most fantasy points to wide receivers. The Niners are 2.5-point underdogs and this game has the highest point total over/under of the week. Aiyuk is in a great spot for another 100-yard outing with a good shot at a score. Fire him up at a very reasonable $5,800 on DraftKings.
Marques Valdes-Scantling, WR, Packers
Marques Valdes-Scantling was featured here in Week 1 before going off for 96 yards and a touchdown and a top-12 WR finish. That game came against the Vikings who the Packers will host for another round in Week 8. Since Week 1, though, the fantasy points have been hard to come by. However, there’s reason to believe Valdes-Scantling can put up another big outing. Despite not recording a reception in Week 7, MVS played by far the second-most snaps among Packers wideouts and was targeted four times against the Texans. He’s No.6 in Deep Targets, No.14 in Air Yards, and No.16 with a Yards Per Reception average of 16.1. His 35.6-percent share of the team’s Air Yards ranks in the top-10 while his 18.0 yards of Average Target Distance is No.2.
Marques Valdes-Scantling boom week coming
•Clear WR2 in snaps Wk7
•Had 96 yards, TD vs MIN Week 1
•14th in Air Yards
•10th in Air Yards Share (35.6%)
•2nd in Average Target Distance (18.0)
•6th in Deep Targets
•16.1 YPR (16th)
•4.37 speed
$3,800 on #DraftKings pic.twitter.com/DAxlTDf13P
— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) October 29, 2020
Valdes-Scantling has 4.37 speed so we know he can take the top off a defense for a big score like he did against the Vikings in the opener. With a total points over/under over 50, we want some pieces in this matchup. Valdes-Scantling allows us to get there without breaking the budget and makes a Packers stack do-able. At $3,800, it’s worth taking a shot on MVS in a few lineups in hopes everything comes together for a boom week.
Jamycal Hasty, RB, 49ers
Jamycal Hasty carried nine times for 57 yards and converted his one target into 16 yards in last Sunday’s win over the Patriots. Considering his 87th-percentile Burst Score on PlayerProfiler.com, it was no surprise that Hasty looked explosive in relief of starter Jeff Wilson, who was in for the injured Raheem Mostert. Wilson left the game with an ankle injury and won’t be back for Week 8 and Mostert and Tevin Coleman are on injured reserve. Jerrick Mckinnon has been weirdly relegated to bench warmer in recent weeks so it looks like this is going to be Hasty’s backfield. We’ve seen enough from Hasty and the 49ers running game to know he can be productive with his opportunity. He’s just $5,000 on DraftKings.
A.J. Green, WR, Bengals
A.J. Green is not dead yet. It’s been a weird start to the season for the veteran who missed all of last year. He commanded Target Shares of over 20-percent and was seeing a lot of Air Yards in each of the first two weeks. But from Weeks 3-5, Green had a Target Rate of just 10.7-percent with a low of 3.5-percent in Week 5. He struggled to find a connection with rookie quarterback Joe Burrow, seeing a Catchable Target Rate of just 65.5-percent (No.98).
But things are looking up after two encouraging weeks. Green has seen a Target Share of 28.2-percent and 27.7-percent over the last two games. After totaling only 14 catches for 119 yards over the first five, Green has 15 receptions for 178 yards in the last two games. That includes seven receptions on 13 targets for 82 yards in Week 7. Green has seen a 92-percent Snap Share, averaged 39 routes, 12 targets, and 16.4 fantasy points per game over that span. He has also averaged 135 Air Yards per game over the last two, adding to his league lead in unrealized Air Yards. He’s No.10 in Targets and No.4 in Deep Targets for the season.
The Bengals are second in the league in pass attempts per game, so the opportunities should continue. It’s only a matter of time before we see a classic Green blow up spot. He’s just $4,500 on DraftKings in a matchup with the Titans who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Titans
Can someone please tell me how in the world Jonnu Smith is the TE13 on the DraftKings main slate this week? Come on, man. I know he’s coming off a dud week and left early with an injury the week prior, but he had 13 receptions, 181 yards and three touchdowns in the three games before that. He’s priced behind Jared Cook, Tyler Higbee, Robert Tonyan, Jimmy Graham, Noah Fant, and Mike Gesicki. Come on.
Denzel Mims, WR, Jets
Denzel Mims was a Yards Per Fantasy favorite coming out of Baylor with a dominant college profile, alpha WR1 size, and the athleticism to match. While a hamstring injury kept him sidelined for the first six weeks of the season, Mims impressed in his NFL debut last Sunday against the Bills. He saw seven targets (30.4-percent), converting four of them for 42 yards. It was enough to lead the team in receiving yards and tied Braxton Berrios for the lead in both targets and receptions.
A reminder of what we liked about Denzel Mims coming out of Baylor:
•4.38 40-time
•Speed Score: 96th-percentile
•Burst Score: 90th
•Agility Score: 67th
•Catch Radius: 96th
•SPARQ-x: 77th
•50% of Baylor’s pass TDs in 2019
•19.9 Breakout Age
•42.3% Dominator
•15.5 YPR pic.twitter.com/CVFA4JBz1l— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) October 24, 2020
The team’s top two receivers, Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder are likely to miss Week 8, so Mims will be operating as the WR1 against the Chiefs. Mims will be peppered with targets in garbage time as the Jets are massive underdogs in this one. With 4.38 speed, he is capable of beating a defense for a big play, a key trait in a good tournament play. This pick could easily go south, but at $3,200 it would be a mistake to not get Mims into some Week 8 lineups.
