DraftKings Thanksgiving Slate

DraftKings Thanksgiving Slate

Easily one of the best days of the year if you’re a football fan and even more so as a DFS player. We get to stuff our faces and watch three isolated games all day long.

A three game slate is very different compared to a full slate. Obviously there’s less players to choose from which condenses ownership. It’s a bit of a mix of regular tournaments and Showdown. It’s also good practice for the playoff slates. Game Theory is very important. How do you see the games going? If you think one game is higher scoring than the others then load up on that game. My write up will be a little different for this. I’ll Breakdown the games individually with the players and how to stack the games. Then go into how to construct your lineup to get a little different. It’s gonna be a lot to digest and just like Thanksgiving dinner you might need a nap after.

Packers @ Lions

Spread: DET -7.5
Game Total: 46.5

Injuries to Monitor

Aaron Jones was carted off Sunday with a knee injury and will miss this game.

AJ Dillon is dealing with a groin injury

Jayden Reed has a chest injury.

Dontayvion Wicks has a concussion and knee injury and has not been practicing.

Luke Musgrave has a lacerated kidney and will miss this game.

Pricing

QB

Jared Goff $6,300

Goff has thrown multiple TDs in back to back games. Three interceptions killed his day last week. Goff has averaged 262 yards and 2 TDs at home. I worry a little about his upside with the Packers being much better defending the pass than the run but on such a small slate he can absolutely pay off as over a TD favorites at home.

Jordan Love $5,500

Love has shown flashes this year but overall has been disappointing. He did throw for 322 yards last week and has thrown multiple TDs in back to back games. He’s actually tied for 6th most passing TDs this season. As heavy underdogs on the road it should be a heavy passing script in a dome.

RB

Jahmyr Gibbs $6,800

Gibbs benefited from Montgomery being out for a few weeks and has now carved out a solid role in this offense. Over his last four games he’s averaged 20.5 touches and 27 DraftKings points. Since Week 7 he leads all RBs in points scored.

David Montgomery $6,300

Montgomery came back from injury and picked up right where he left off. In the two games since returning he’s averaging eight yards a carry and has the 3rd most rushing yards. The Packers have allowed the 5th most rushing yards per game this season.

AJ Dillon $5,400

Dillon has looked awful this year. Aaron Jones will miss this game so he’ll get a workhorse roll. I’m personally not playing him but he will see a ton of opportunities.

WR

Amon Ra St Brown $8,500

Amon Ra has been incredible this season. He’s averaging 8.1 receptions per game which is 2nd most behind only Keenan Allen. He has a 31% target share and has been targeted on 31% of his routes run. Both of which are elite. He has an incredible floor while offering a ceiling.

Romeo Doubs $5,000

Doubs has a 20% target share and leads the team in receptions. He’s also tied for the 3rd most receiving TDs with seven. He’s scored a TD in four of his last five games.

Christian Watson $4,300

Watson has been disappointing after some flashes his rookie year. It’s partially due to health but his season high in receptions is three which he’s only had in three games this year. He scored his first TD since Week 4 last week which was against these Lions.

Jayden Reed $4,200

Reed has back to back games with 19 DraftKings points scoring a TD in each of them. He has at least five targets in three of his last four games and even had three rush attempts last week. He’s clearly one of the Packers’ best play makers and they should look to get the ball in his hands especially with Aaron Jones out.

Josh Reynolds $3,500

Reynolds had some productive games earlier this season but has fallen off a cliff since. He hasn’t had more than two receptions since Week 6 and has seen his routes run decrease in each of the last three games.

Jameson Williams $3,400

Williams is on the rise seeing his route participation increase in three consecutive weeks. He caught a 32 yard TD last week and has big play ability with a 16.6 yard average depth of target. He’s extremely volatile but can pay off on one play.

TE

Sam LaPorta $5,200

LaPorta has a 20% target share and has been targeted on 26% of his routes. He’s cooled off over the last of couple weeks after he had back to back games with at least six catches and 52 yards in Weeks 7 & 8. He has the 5th most receptions among TEs.

Tucker Kraft $2,500

Musgrave will likely miss this game soooo Kraft is a cheap TE option.

DEF

DET $3,200

GB $2,800

Breakdown

The Lions likely roll in this one and I think they have a ton of success on the Ground. That makes Gibbs and Montgomery my preferred plays. I actually think you can play them in the same lineup to get different. Amon Ra will be in my lineups as well with some sprinkles of LaPorta and Jameson Williams. I’ll be underweight on Goff hoping I get the bulk of his production through the afformentioned guys.

On the Packers side I don’t hate Love stacks. His receivers are cheap and have been productive. They should be trailing and will have to throw. I prefer Doubs and Reed and might sprinkle in Kraft as a salary saver.

Commanders @ Cowboys

Spread: DAL -10.5
Game Total: 48.5

Injuries to Monitor

Rico Dowdle is dealing with an ankle injury

Antonio Gibson has a toe injury and has been practicing on a limited basis.

Pricing

QB

Dak Prescott $6,800

Dak has been on fire throwing multiple TDs in four straight games. He threw two last week but had totals of 4, 3 and 4 in his previous three games. Washington has allowed the most points to opposing QBs this season.

Sam Howell $6,200

Howell has the most passing yards by more than 200 yards in the NFL since Week 7. He’s averaged 45 passing attempts over that span. He’s also averaged seven yards per rush over that span. As underdogs on the road he should continue to throw at a high rate.

RB

Tony Pollard $6,700

Pollard finally scored a TD last week for the first time since Week 1. He has the most carries inside the ten yard line this season. He also has at least three receptions in two of his last three games.

Brian Robinson $5,900

Robinson has been the leading receiver for the Commanders in back to back weeks. He caught seven balls last week and six the previous week. He’s averaging 17.25 touches over his last four games. His workload makes him a safe option on a small slate especially at his price.

Rico Dowdle $4,600

Dowdle has carry totals of eight and twelve the last two weeks. He could see significant work in mop up duty if the Cowboys blow the Commanders out. He is banged up and his status should be monitored.

Antonio Gibson $4,500

Gibson missed last week but previously had five receptions in three straight games. He gets enough work in the passing game to pay off this price tag.

WR

Ceedee Lamb $8,700

Lamb has scored a TD is three of his last four games totalling four over that span. Over his last five games he’s averaging 9.4 receptions and 131 yards both of which are league highs.

Terry McLaurin $5,400

McLaurin has a 20% target share and has at least five receptions in eight games this season. He leads the team in targets, receptions, yards and air yards.

Jahan Dotson $4,600

Dotson has scored a TD in three of his last four games. He doesn’t have much upside when Samuel is in the lineup but does lead Washington receivers in TDs.

Brandin Cooks $4,500

Cooks has been relatively pedestrian outside of Week 10. Granted he did have nine catches for 173 yards in that one. You’re probably looking at 3-4 catches and a TD as a realistic upside.

Michael Gallup $3,700

Gallup has turned into a part time player recently. He’s only topped two catches twice since Week 5. He does still have some big play upside and is averaging 12.7 yards per reception.

Curtis Samuel $3,600

Samuel got elected last week and has dealt with some injuries recently. The last two weeks were duds but he had previously caught at least four balls in five straight games.

Jalen Tolbert $3,100

Tolbert has five targets and a double digit target share in three straight games. He’s played more snaps than Gallup in back to back games and has played at least 40% of snaps in every game since Week 6.

TE

Jake Ferguson $3,900

Prior to last week, Ferguson had scored a TD in three straight games.

Logan Thomas $3,500

Thomas has at least five receptions in three of his last four games. He hasn’t been incredible but he’s been a consistent option which is hard to find at TE.

DEF

DAL $3,800

WAS $2,500

Breakdown

It’s hard to envision the Cowboys not dominating this game. It’s pretty simple with Dak Ceedee and Ferguson stacks but I like Tolbert as a sneaky piece as well. You could just use Pollard and Ceedee hoping everything goes through them.

As for Washington I’m not crazy about anyone. If Gibson misses I’ll play a good amount of Robinson. If I play Howell I probably trust Logan Thomas the most and would take a chance on Curtis Samuel over Dotson.

49ers @ Seahawks

Spread: SF -7
Game Total: 42.5

Injuries to Monitor

Geno Smith has an elbow/triceps injury but seems like he’ll be able to play.

Ken Walker has an oblique injury and will likely miss this game.

DK Metcalf has a toe injury and was unable to practice on Wednesday.

Pricing

QB

Brock Purdy $6,100

Purdy has back to back games with three passing TDs. He’s averaging 316 passing yards, 2 TDs and a league leading 11.3 yards per attempt over his last four games.

Geno Smith $5,600

Geno is banged up and has taken a step back from last season. For that reason I expect him to be low owned which is huge on a three game slate. Over the last five weeks, the 49ers have allowed the 8th most passing yards per game.

Drew Lock $5,000

If for some reason Geno can’t go Lock will practically be unowned. He’s strictly a game theory play. At his salary he allows you to jam some studs and doesn’t need much to pay off.

RB

Christian McCaffrey $8,700

Fit him in as many lineups as you can.

Zach Charbonnet $5,300

Walker will miss this game and Charbonnet will get the bulk of the work. He was already eating into Walker’s workload and had 21 touches last week when Walker left the game. He’s also a good pass catcher and has 10 catches over the last two weeks. He’ll be popular but for good reason with a huge workload at this salary.

Eli Mitchell $4,200

Mitchell will get some opportunities especially if the 49ers get up big. He’s had 12 carries over the last two weeks. He’s a large field cheap dart throw.

DJ Dallas $4,400

Pete Carroll will likely play more DJ Dallas than necessary. He’ll likely get some passing work at a low salary. Similar to Mitchell he’s a cheap dart throw.

WR

Brandon Aiyuk $7,000

Aiyuk has bee ln great this year. He has a 26% target share and a ridiculous 3.8 yards per routes run. He’s averaging 19.3 yards per reception. He’s scored a TD in back to back games.

DK Metcalf $6,500

Metcalf doesn’t seem to be fully healthy. He’s been better lately with 21 targets over the last two weeks. He has at least 94 yards in back to back games. He has double digit targets in three of his last five games.

Tyler Lockett $6,000

Lockett has been up and down but overall productive this season. He has a 23% target share. Since Week 2 he’s averaging 14.3 DraftKings points per game and has over 22 points in twobof his last four games.

Deebo Samuel $5,900

Deebo has been ok since coming back from injury but hasn’t had any blowup games like earlier this season. He’s averaged 13.2 yards per reception the last two weeks. He obviously has a chance to break a long one in any game which is exactly what you want on a short slate.

Jaxson Smith Njigba $4,100

JSN has seen his role increase as the season has gone on. He’s played 80% of snaps two of the last three weeks. He has at least six targets in three if his last five games. Two of his three highest yardage totals have come over the last three weeks.

TE

George Kittle $6,000

Kittle is TE2 on a points per game basis. He’s averaging 15.5 yards per reception which is highest among TEs. 23 DraftKings points is his lowest total over his last three games. He’s averaging 118 yards over that span.

Noah Fant $2,700
Will Dissly $2,500
Cody Parkinson $2,500

The Seahawks use all three of these guys. Its possible that one of them scores a TD but good luck guessing who.

DEF

SF $3,600

SEA $2,600

Breakdown

A lot is riding on Geno playing but either way I like both sides here. I do think this could be the lowest scoring game of the slate so I won’t heavily stack it but will use pieces. McCaffrey is clearly the best play on the slate and I’m playing as much of him as I can. I like Purdy stacks but he won’t be my highest owned QB. He’s struggled at times on the road. I like using the pass catchers as one offs. Especially Aiyuk who will likely go a little overlooked.

If word comes out that Geno is playing I’ll play some of him. Either way I like DK Metcalf, Lockett and JSN in that order.