Redraft season is on the horizon and roster construction is important to your success in season long leagues. Your roster construction starts during the draft and this series will focus on the “this or that” of selecting a position during the draft and what the ramifications of that selection for your team is.
For this exercise, the position group selected with the first picks will be contrasted by the opposite position in the later pick. For example, if you took a RB in round two vs a WR in round two, the round 10 selection would compare taking a WR to pair with your second round RB and vice versa. All ADP is derived from ffcalculator.com and is based on 12 team PPR. Let’s check out part two.
Related | Redraft Roster Construction: This or That?
Draft RB EARLY?
A decision that many owners are faced with in 2020 is to draft “RB Robust” early and take WR later due to the depth of the position. For this example, let’s look at selecting Julio Jones (ADP 16) or Austin Ekeler (ADP 17). Here’s what they did in 2019.
Jones – T-WR2 (274.1 FP) WR3 (18.3 FP/G)
Ekeler – RB4 (313.0 FP) RB6 (19.6 FP/G)
Julio was Julio. Doesn’t matter how old he gets. The man is a difference maker for your fantasy team. The Falcons were bad last year, and threw the ball a bit more than usual, but Jones’ numbers were relatively unchanged. The Falcons will get Calvin Ridley back after injury in 2019, but Julio should and will still get his. Ekeler exploded on the scene in 2019 after Melvin Gordon held out. Ekeler didn’t see many fantasy points from the ground game, but he excelled with Philip Rivers in the passing game. Rivers is out and Tyrod Taylor is in. Will a full season of Ekeler without Gordon be enough to overcome the QB change? Let’s look at a later round RB and QB to pair with these two.
Draft RB LATE?
If you selected Jones at 16, you could pair him with David Montgomery (ADP 47). If you selected Ekeler at 17 you could pair him with A.J. Brown (ADP 46). Let’s examine their 2019 seasons.
Montgomery – RB24 (174.4 FP) RB34 (10.9 FP/G)
Brown – WR21 (217.1 FP) WR32 (13.6 FP/G)
Montgomery was solid yet unspectacular in his rookie season. Hyped up as a “do-it-all” workhorse, Montgomery was used sparingly in the pass game and dealt with some questionable play calling by HC Matt Nagy (remember that game against New Orleans where the Bears ran the ball 7 times…). Tarik Cohen is a real threat to Montgomery’s passing work in 2020. Brown exploded after Marcus Mariota was unseated as the starting QB by Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee. Tannehill is back on a long term deal in 2020, and Brown should be a major benefactor. Brown produced for fantasy owners with his 20.2 yards per catch. Is this going to happen again? Can Brown improve on his 52 receptions in that run heavy offense?
Related | Yards After Catch, Regression, and Why I’m Still Drafting AJ Brown
2020 PROJECTIONS
Player |
Targets |
Receptions |
Rec Yds |
Rec TDs |
Fantasy Points |
|||
|
Julio Jones |
169 | 104.78 | 1592.65 | 7.4854832 | 308.9584 |
|
||
|
A.J. Brown |
105.8 | 67.712 | 1117.24 | 10.502131 |
242.4495
|
|||
Player |
Rush Att |
Rushing Yds |
Rush TDs |
Targets |
Receptions |
Rec Yds |
Rec TDs |
Fantasy Points |
|
Austin Ekeler |
178.2 | 766.26 |
6.13 |
84.8 |
66.992 |
602.92 |
5.1851 |
271.8023 |
| David Montgomery | 292.6 | 1141.14 | 7.6456 | 64.35 | 45.045 | 333.33 | 1.4666 |
247.1661 |
VERDICT
I am usually a proponent of pounding RB early in re draft, but for this example I have to go with the Julio/Montgomery side. Taking Julio 16 would mean I went RB in round one (likely someone like Joe Mixon or Alvin Kamara). Julio’s ceiling can win me weeks by himself, and Montgomery should provide enough of a floor to pair with my first round RB.
As much as I like Ekeler, Tyrod Taylor doesn’t check down to the RB as much as Philip Rivers and TE Hunter Henry will be back in the fold after missing most of 2019 with an ACL injury. A.J. Brown is a fine WR, but I don’t think his yards per reception will eclipse 20 again, but his receptions should climb. If you’re into the highest ceiling possible, you probably want the Ekeler/Brown side here, but I’ll bank on Julio being Julio and Montgomery being a stable RB2.
What do you think? What would you do?
