Yahoo vs ESPN ADP: Running Backs
We’re well in to draft season now and with one full weekend to go before the start of the season (at last!), the more casual drafters are starting to get their player lists together and work out who they want to draft. The even more casual drafters are going to rock up to the draft and just draft straight off the standard draft rankings in whichever platform they’re using.
With that in mind, I’ve looked in to two of the more common platforms (Yahoo and ESPN) to pick out some of the key differences in the current average draft position (ADP) on those sites. I’ve also compared them to the industry experts and my own rankings for this year.
Why do this? Well, drafting is all about value and if you can identify the values in your draft then you’re going to have a leg-up on your league-mates. And if you have multiple leagues then, like me, you may be using both platforms this year. Knowing the nuances of the two different systems can really help when it comes to draft day and I for one am going to use this to influence my draft.
In part one of this series, let’s examine the ADP for running backs on both ESPN and Yahoo!.
Joe Mixon
- Yahoo RB7
- ESPN RB14
- Yardsper Consensus Ranking RB6
- FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) RB8
- My Current Ranking RB10
Lets set aside any concerns about whether or not he’s going to hold out for now and look at his value as a player.
In the last 8 games of last season, Mixon was on pace for almost 2,000 total yards and 10 touchdowns, that would have been RB7 on a full season. His first half was not good and many analysts were advising that you could drop him from your team. So which Mixon are we going to get? Well, the thinking is that the Bengals had a new coach last year that took some time to understand his offense and how to get the best out of them. On that basis, Mixon should carry on where he left off.
However, they have a new Quarterback this year and this guy is happy to run with it himself. He has a number of talented pass-catchers (remember AJ Green?) and no matter how much we want it, Giovani Bernard continues to get a lot of passing-downs work out of the backfield. That’s going to impact Mixon’s ability to hit his ceiling and that’s why I have him at RB10.
If you’re playing in a Yahoo league, you’re going to have to really believe in that ceiling and go get him at RB7. Personally, that’s a bit rich for me but at RB14 in ESPN leagues, Mixon presents a great value there.
James Conner
- Yahoo RB15
- EPSN RB21
- Yardsper Consensus Ranking RB22
- FantasyPros ECR RB18
- My Current Ranking RB13
Confession time, I love James Conner. I drafted him late in the Le’veon Bell holdout year and I just haven’t been able to quit him since.
When he’s on the field he’s great, but he has this big black injury cloud hanging over his head. So if you take him you have to take the risk of what happens if he gets injured. But you also have the upside of what happens if he doesn’t. If he stays fit, he will exceed his ADP, it’s as simple as that for me.
Yahoo have him close to my ranking and are bullish on his opportunity to succeed in 2020. The value once again presents itself on ESPN where his ADP sits at No.21 among running backs. At that price, after David Johnson, after Melvin Gordon, that’s a wonderful value without too much risk.
Mark Ingram
- Yahoo RB20
- ESPN RB26
- Yardsper Current Ranking RB26
- FantasyPros ECR RB23
- My Current Ranking RB31
Ingram comes off a great year in 2019 with a top 12 running back finish in PPR, and if you had him on your team then you got him at a great value too. But he did it off the back of an unsustainable receiving touchdown rate (5 TDs on 29 targets) and he’s getting older. He also has competition in the backfield, not only from the league’s best rushing quarterback but from Gus Edwards (yes, he is a thing) and an exciting young rookie in JK Dobbins.
Ingram’s price likely reflects these factors, particularly in ESPN but he’s going way too soon in Yahoo. For the right value and the right roster construction, Ingram can be a useable second or third running back but he’d need to fall in cost on both platforms for me.
David Johnson
- Yahoo RB26
- ESPN RB18
- Yardsper Current Ranking RB23
- FantasyPros ECR RB21
- My Current Ranking RB26
Another running back that Yahoo have at a discount is David Johnson. I get it, he’s another one of these mid-round running backs that gets polarising viewpoints. On the good side, Carlos Hyde ran for over 1,000 yards in this offense last year and if David Johnson can shake the health concerns that seem to have plagued him over the last few years then there’s hope of him recapturing those former glories that made him the number one overall pick in drafts a few short years ago. However, he has had those knocks, those concerns, and the Cardinals really didn’t want him.
If he hits his ceiling, both Yahoo and ESPN will be too low but Yahoo have him at the best value. If you’re going to target him anywhere, ESPN might be a little too risky.
PSA: Damien Williams & Derrius Guice Are Undraftable
- Yahoo RB31 & RB32
- ESPN RB61 & RB64
Public Service Announcement number one: do not draft Damien Williams or Derrius Guice. Williams has opted out for the 2020 season and Guice has been arrested and released (and if the stories are anything to be believed, he’s not going to be in the NFL this season at least).
Public Service Announcement number two: attend your drafts and do not auto-draft. Both of these players are still on both Yahoo and ESPN draft boards. In Yahoo in particular, they’re still pretty high. Don’t be the person that auto-drafts either of these players!
Sony Michel
- Yahoo RB36
- ESPN RB53
- Yardsper Current Ranking RB47
- FantasyPros ECR RB42
- My Current Ranking RB69
Finally, I thought I’d pick out a player who has one of the biggest discrepancies between the two platforms.
If stories about Michel potentially being ready early in the season are true then the ESPN ADP will likely go up and so will my ranking. If he ends up on the PUP to start the season, then the Yahoo one will likely drop.
In the meantime, Yahoo is extremely bullish on Michel’s outcome. If you believe in the Patriots backfield and you believe in Michel then RB36 is a decent value for a lead back. But there’s far too many concerns for me to consider taking him this high. ESPN ADP has him much more fairly valued and, at that price, could be with a pickup as a floor play if you’re concerned about your running backs room.
Good luck in your drafts, look out for those values and do what you can to exploit these price differentials across the two platforms. Stay tuned for wide receivers, tight ends and quarterbacks coming soon.
