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The college football regular season is officially over, and the annual award winners have been announced. I love seeing these guys get recognized for their work throughout the year, but I always wonder how truly “fair” it is to give an award to a player when there are big disparities in talent across the Division 1 landscape. For example, this year… did Kenny Pickett from Pittsburgh get snubbed for the Heisman because he plays in a perceived “lesser” conference than Bryce Young in the SEC?
We can argue validity later, but maybe these voters know something we don’t. Do these award winners translate to fantasy football success in the NFL? In this article I’ll take a historical look at position based awards only dating back to 2010. For a winner to have a “hit” record in fantasy football success I’ve set the bar at 4 or more seasons of top 12 QB/TE overall production, and 4 or more seasons of top 24 RB/WR overall production. For players who’ve been in the NFL less than 4 seasons, I took a 50% of their career in the above criteria, and for last years winners I only looked at current production for the season. Let’s take a look.
DAVEY O’BRIEN AWARD
Best Quarterback
Current winner: Bryce Young, Alabama, 2023 eligible
Previous winners:
Mac Jones (2020): currently QB20, miss
Joe Burrow (2019): 1/2 top 12 season… hit
Kyler Murray (2018): 2/3… hit
Baker Mayfield (2017): 0/4… miss
Deshaun Watson (2016, 2015): 3/5… (if we don’t count his 2021 he’s a hit)
Marcus Mariota (2014): 0/7… miss
Jameis Winston (2013): 2/7… miss
Johnny Manziel (2012): 0/2… miss
Robert Griffin III (2011): 1/7… miss
Cam Newton (2010): 5/11… hit
So 3 for sure hits, 4 if you don’t count Deshaun Watson’s 2021 season. The trends I see… guys like Mariota and Manziel were electric college system players. From looking at this list, it’s a decent balance of runners and pocket passers. I don’t think Mac Jones ever becomes a consistent top 12 QB. I’m not sure winning this award means you will find NFL success as a fantasy QB.
DOAK WALKER AWARD
Best Running Back
Current Winner: Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State, 2022 eligible
Previous winners:
Najee Harris (2020): currently RB4… hit
Jonathan Taylor (2019, 2018): 2/2 top 24 season… hit
Bryce Love (2017): 0/3… miss
D’Onta Foreman (2016): 0/4… miss
Derrick Henry (2015): 4/6… hit
Melvin Gordon (2014): 3/7… hit
Andre Williams (2013): 0/4… miss
Montee Ball (2012): 0/2… miss
Trent Richardson (2011): 1/3… miss
LaMichael James (2010): 0/4… miss
So 4 hits…. Back to back hits. But again, this list looks like a bunch of guys who lit it up in college, and fizzled in the pros. I mean James, Ball, Williams, Foreman and Love never rushed for more than 720 yards in a season (Williams, 2014). This list is rough. I don’t know if the recent trend of Harris and Taylor is telling, but I don’t think winning the Doak Walker means you will find NFL success.
FRED BILETNIKOFF AWARD
Best Wide Receiver
Current winner: Jordan Addison, Pittsburgh, 2023 eligible
Previous winners:
DeVonta Smith (2020): currently WR27… miss
Ja’Marr Chase (2019): currently WR11… hit
Jerry Jeudy (2018): 0/2 top 24 season… miss
James Washington (2017): 0/4… miss
Dede Westbrook (2016): 0/5… miss
Corey Coleman (2015): 0/3… miss
Amari Cooper (2014): 5/7… hit
Brandin Cooks (2013): 6/8… hit
Marqise Lee (2012): 0/5… hit
Justin Blackmon (2011, 2010): 0/2… miss
Jury is still out on Jeudy and Smith, but 4 hits again, with a potential to get to 6. Guys like Blackmon and Coleman starred in college couldn’t get it together in the NFL. Some real stable studs with Cooper and Cooks. I think there is some validity to this award leading to fantasy football success in the NFL.
JOHN MACKEY AWARD
Best Tight End
Current winner: Trey McBride, Colorado State, 2022 eligible
Previous winners:
Kyle Pitts (2020): currently TE8… hit
Harrison Bryant (2019): 0/2 top 12 seasons… miss
T.J. Hockenson (2018): 2/3… hit
Mark Andrews (2017): 3/4… hit
Jake Butt (2016): 0/2… miss
Hunter Henry (2015): 2/6… miss (currently TE13 in 2021 though)
Nick O’Leary (2014): 0/5… miss
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (2013): 0/5… miss
Tyler Eifert (2012): 1/8… miss
Dwayne Allen (2011): 0/7… miss
D.J. Williams (2010): 0/3… miss
3 hits but… Henry has been oft-injured, Butt had a career altering injury the game after winning this award, Eifert was always injured as well. Some really big hits here with Pitts, Hockenson, and Andrews. I don’t think winning the Mackey guarantees you NFL fantasy football success.
So I guess the bottom line is… awards are nice, but they shouldn’t be included in our evaluations of prospects. For WRs it seems you can find a solid player, but none of these other awards have much indication of fantasy football success. Back to combine and efficiency metrics I go…
