Diontae Johnson Is A Massive Value In 2021
Diontae Johnson is being criminally undervalued going into the 2021 season. The fact that he is going as the WR24 in fantasy drafts is unforgivable.
Per The Reception Perception, Johnson finished with a high success rate vs different types of coverages. He finished in the 95th percentile vs man coverage, 96th percentile vs zone coverage, and 86th percentile vs press. He can beat all types of coverage.
The fact of the matter is that Ben Roethlisberger loved having him on the field and the Pittsburgh Steelers know just how valuable of an asset he is. Their affinity for him was exemplary in the massive target volume he received every week. With the addition of Najee Harris in the 2021 NFL Draft and the promise of a talented offensive line, Diontae Johnson will now be free to accumulate targets of higher value.
DIONTAE JOHNSON IS A TARGET MAGNET
There is a saying in fantasy football, “Opportunity is king.” The more touches a player sees, the more opportunities he has to produce fantasy points. For running backs, those touches come in the form of runs and receptions. For wide receivers, it’s vastly through receptions. Wide receivers that receive heavy target shares have higher odds of producing fantasy points through receptions.
We calculate target share by dividing the number of targets a player receives over total team pass attempts. Johnson finished the 2020 regular season sixth at the wide receiver position in targets with 144 total. If we calculate Johnson’s target share, then we would divide 144/656 (144 targets over 656 team pass attempts) for a 21.9% target share. I never said there wouldn’t be any math involved.
But to count the pass attempts that Johnson wasn’t present for would simply be misleading. Johnson missed two games and left another early due to injury. If we count the games in which Johnson was healthy enough to play and subtract the team pass attempts he wasn’t there for from total pass attempts, then his true target share would be 25.1%. That is high-end WR1 territory.
For perspective, Tyreek Hill’s true target share was 22.1%, Keenan Allen’s was 27.1%, D.J. Moore’s was 23.1% and Cooper Kupp’s was 22.4%. All of these wide receivers are going in front of Johnson in Underdog drafts. This is what is known as a value in fantasy football.
DIONTAE JOHNSON’S 2020 AVERAGE DEPTH OF TARGET
In 2020, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ run game and pass protection were non-existent. Because of this, the Steelers required Johnson to run the vast majority of his routes close to the line of scrimmage. Doing so acted as an extension of the run game and a safety outlet when Roethlisberger was under pressure.
The Steelers addressed the running back and tackle position by drafting Najee Harris in the first round and Kevin Dotson in the 4th round of the NFL Draft. Per PFF, Dotson graded out highly in pass protection and is a competent run blocker. They also still have stud guard David DeCastro returning from an injury-riddled 2020 season along with promising center J.C Hassenhauer.
Of the wide receivers that received at least 100 targets, the average depth of target (ADOT) was 10.3. As seen in the distribution chart below, of Johnson’s 144 targets, 58% of them were within 0-10 yards of the line of scrimmage last year. When compared to the other 35 wide receivers with at least 100 targets in 2020, Johnson’s ADOT was 30th lowest at 7.9 yards. Again, this was a result of the woes of the run game and poor pass protection.
A low ADOT isn’t horrible for wide receivers, but it does require them to do a lot after the catch to rack up additional yardage. In 2019 Johnson’s ADOT was 9.2 yards. Considering all this information, I am confidently expecting Johnson’s ADOT to rise back up to the 8-10 yard mark in 2021. Johnson is going to see an increase of higher leverage targets in 2021 and therefore a significant jump in fantasy production.
DIONTAE JOHNSON DOES NOT HAVE A DROP PROBLEM
Okay, let’s discuss the elephant in the room. Yes, Diontae Johnson had 13 drops and led the league among all pass-catchers in drops in 2020. Yes, he is a great wide receiver. Does not have a drop problem? No!
Of Johnson’s 13 dropped passes, 11 of them were within 0-10 yards of the line of scrimmage, 1 was behind the L.O.S and 1 was beyond 20 yards.
I visually charted all of Johnson’s dropped passes in 2020. In addition, I specifically studied Johnson’s ball placement, hand-eye coordination, and technique. For each of those passes, I made notes of my observations. These were the consistent issues I noticed:
- Drops -0 yards:
“Designed screen. Looking up before he caught the ball.”
- Drops 0-10 yards:
“Ball bounced off his hands twice while wide open during crossers and slants.”
“Behind and low but still catchable.”
“Pass was high and he was anticipating contact.”
“Pass was low but catchable.”
“Open in the middle of the field but the pass was high and behind.”
- Drops 20+ yards:
“End zone fade. Poor tracking.”
I know what you’re thinking, “You keep saying the passes were catchable.” This is true. Cris Collinsworth said it best when the Steelers were playing against the Buffalo Bills, “He is not looking the ball into his hands.” In other words, he’s looking up for before he completes the motion of tucking the ball away. But, these are easy fixes for Diontae Johnson. They are easy fixes because we have repeatedly seen him make catches in far more critical situations.
The six wide receivers that finished behind Johnson in dropped passes in 2020 were Jerry Jeudy (10), D.K. Metcalf (8), Tee Higgins (8), Steffon Diggs (8), Tyler Lockett (8), and Ceedee Lamb (8). Those are all still a significant number of drops. With the exception of Jeudy, all those wide receivers are going in front of Johnson in drafts.
Last year, the leader in dropped passes was Julian Edelman with 13. In 2018 it was Jarvis Landry with 11 drops and Calvin Ridley in second with 10 drops. Dropped passes are not something that carries over from year to year. Given the history of drops and the nature of Johnson’s issues last year, it is in our best interest to put that issue to bed. I’m confident that Johnson has.
BOTTOM LINE
- Diontae Johnson’s target share is not a fluke and is that of a high-end WR1. He has successfully proven that he earns those targets by winning against coverage on the field.
- His low ADOT was a result of an absent run game and poor O-line play. Expect Diontae Johnson to receive higher value targets in 2021.
- Dropped passes are not a consistent issue that carries over from year to year. Don’t give in to the narrative surrounding him. Capitalize on it.
