David Montgomery: The Best Value in Fantasy Football
David Montgomery Is The Best Value In 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts
There is no player being undervalued more than Lions running back David Montgomery right now. He goes at the end of the 7th round on Underdog Fantasy, with an ADP of 83.9. That is a criminal price tag, and you’ll regret not drafting him when September rolls around. Give me the chance to convince you why you should be scooping up Montgomery constantly at this ADP.
Let’s start with the obvious: The Lions drafted Alabama star running back Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Gibbs is an exciting and talented young player, but he’s being drafted over 40 spots ahead of DMont. The market seems to believe that Gibbs will receive more usage and produce better than his running mate. However, I’m not so sure that will be the case. Last year at Alabama, Gibbs received 33.7% of his team’s rushing attempts. That number jumps to 41% if you remove quarterback rushes, but it’s still not a very high mark.
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To be fair, Gibbs led the team with 44 catches while maintaining a 12.8% target share, and that’s where he shines most. However, he wasn’t a good pass protector in college, and he’ll need to work on it to play more in the league. He only pass blocked on 30 snaps last season, per CBS. My issue is that people are assuming he’ll get all the pass usage and leave Montgomery with only early-down work. I believe that couldn’t be further from the truth.
It may shock you, but Montgomery has quietly been one of the most efficient receiving backs in the league. Let’s take a look at his receiving metrics from the past few years (courtesy of Player Profiler).
I’ll admit I was surprised to see these numbers at first. The reason Montgomery is going overlook as a receiver isn’t due to talent, but rather volume. The Bears just refused to pass the ball the last two years, and Montgomery’s passing down work suffered from it. I believe the market isn’t taking this into account when assessing his value, and they’re just penciling Gibbs in for the “receiving back” role. I’m sure he’ll be very good at catching passes, but Montgomery is clearly capable as a receiver, and he has much more experience in pass protection. He’s not great in that area, but he’s certainly more polished than Gibbs. If you want to see how Montgomery compared to Khalil Herbert on passing downs last year, check out this piece from Da Bears Blog.
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While the receiving upside is there for Montgomery, I love him even more for his touchdown upside. Montgomery looks like he should slide right into Jamaal William’s goal line role from last year. He’s a bigger and more proven red zone back than Gibbs, and that matters a lot in the NFL. It’s honestly quite concerning how little Gibbs was used in this role in college. In three seasons, he had just 113 snaps and 46 red zone carries. Inside the 5-yard line, he received just 20 snaps and six carries. If he wasn’t getting those snaps in college, against smaller and weaker defenders, he probably won’t be doing anything different in the NFL.
I also doubt Craig Reynolds will get many inside the 5 carries when Detroit just signed Montgomery to an $18 million contract. I’m not predicting a repeat of Jamaal Williams’ 17 TDs from last year, but I believe 10+ is certainly within reach for Montgomery on an offense that looks to be quite good again.
To add to all this, the Lions are a good offense. Here’s how they ranked in key areas last year:
Most of the key pieces from last year are back, and in my opinion their new running back duo is better than last year’s. Detroit also added TE Sam LaPorta, OT Colby Sorsdal, WR Antoine Green, and they brought back fan favorite WR Marvin Jones Jr. Additionally, Jameson Williams should be fully healthy when he returns from his six-game suspension. This offense could be even better in 2023.
In short, you’re getting an RB that should easily pace his team in red zone and goal line work, while being a part of one of the league’s best offenses. You’re getting him behind other RBs that have far more questionable tags, in my opinion. Draft Montgomery now before it’s too late.
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