DJ Moore Season Preview: 2020’s Michael Thomas?
As fantasy gamers, we’re always looking for that next superstar. And we want to find that guy before he truly breaks into that exclusive tier. Guys like Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, Patrick Mahomes, Chris Godwin, George Kittle, and Lamar Jackson have made that ascension in recent seasons. But who is next?
Is D.J. Moore The Next Generation Of Elite WR?
D.J. Moore is the most likely to make that leap in 2020. He broke out in 2019, his second NFL season. And it really came at no surprise. The indicators were all there. He was a first round pick in 2018 out of Maryland, where he broke out at age 18 and was a 97th-percentile dominator. When we look at his profile on PlayerProfiler.com, his athleticism is off the charts. 88th-percentile speed score, 73rd-percentile agility, an 89th-percentile catch Radius, and elite explosiveness with a 94th-percentile burst score.
Moore showed flashes as a rookie, with three top-20 fantasy performances over the second half of the season, including a 157-yard performance against Detroit. In 2019 he picked up where he left off, making the year-one to year-two leap we were expecting. He went from WR49 in fantasy points per game in 2018 to WR14. He was top-10 among wide receivers in targets, receptions, and receiving yards.
See Where DJ Moore Lands In Our 2020 Wide Receiver Rankings!
Moore held a 24.3-percent target rate even with both Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel topping 100 targets. Not only is he a target hog, but Moore is among the elite in gaining yardage after the catch, where he ranked number eight with 392 of his 1,175 receiving yards coming after the reception. Even with 33 fewer receptions in his rookie year, Moore was still No.13 in YAC. Again, not a surprise considering what he did at Maryland. He has fantastic hands too, and he showed that last season with a 55.6-percent (No. 6) Contested Catch Rate with just a 2.2-percent Drop Rate.
What Moore has done is really impressive. And he’s doing it at a historic level. Moore made history by becoming the 17th player to reach 1,100 receiving yards in a single season before his 23rd birthday. That’s right, he’s only 23 years old and will be for the entire 2020 season. Only four other wide receivers have ever had a season of at least 87 receptions and 1,175 receiving yards in their age 21-22 season. That’s JuJu Smith-Schuster in 2018, Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014, Josh Gordon in 2013, and Larry Fitzgerald in 2005. That’s quite the list.
The Teddy Bridgewater Effect
And let’s not forget, Moore did that despite some of the worst quarterback play in the league. Now he gets a QB upgrade with Teddy Bridgewater who is one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL. There may not be a QB-WR combo in the league that is a more perfect skill-set match. Their strengths compliment each other perfectly. Moore is a short/intermediate target hog, YAC machine. Bridgewater is a low target depth, pinpoint accurate quarterback that gets the ball out quick and lets his guy go to work.
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In relief of Drew Brees for a stretch in 2019, Bridgewater’s 6.0 Pass Attempt Distance Per Attempt ranked dead last out of 35 qualified quarterbacks. And he finished with a 76.4-percent True Completion Percentage which was the fourth best in the league. So players that operate in the short and intermediate areas of the field, like Moore and McCaffrey, will dominate.
Among Moore, Samuel, and new addition Robby Anderson, Moore is the most likely to be deployed in the slot in this Panthers offense. He only played 12-percent from the slot last year and 25-percent as a rookie. With More opportunities for free releases in the slot and in the middle of the field, Moore will skyrocket into the undeniable elite tier of wide receivers. DJ Moore could have a Michael Thomas-like season in 2020. It’s the perfect situation. A target hog, playing in the slot, with a get-the-ball-out-quick quarterback, in a fast-paced offense that throws the ball at a high rate. It’s the perfect storm for elite fantasy production. And the Panthers have the second-most favorable passing game schedule in 2020. Even with an ADP in the third round, Moore is well-worth the cost of admission.
