College Football Week 6 Best Bets
College Football Week 6 Best Bets
Another week of college football offers another great slate of games. The Week 6 college football weekend kicks off 50 straight days of football across college and the NFL, including four ranked matchups for college. The Red River Shootout Rivalry, LSU/Missouri, Alabama/Texas A&M, Kentucky/Georgia, and Notre Dame/Louisville highlight a few of the expected thrilling college football matchups. Here are my college football Week 6 best bets for the weekend.
College Football Week 5 Best Bets: 1-2 (33%; -1 units)
College Football Best Bets Record: 2-6 (25%; -4 units)
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#12 Oklahoma (5-0) vs. #3 Texas (5-0)
Texas -5; O/U 60.5
Over 60.5 (-110)
We were burned in this game last year; with the over/under set at 65 points, we saw Oklahoma lay a goose egg. But Texas has held their own under Steve Sarkisian. In his two games in the Red River Rivalry, Texas has put up 49 and 48 points, respectively. He now brings in a team with capable NFL talent, including Heisman hopeful Quinn Ewers, Jonathan Brooks (3rd nationally in rushing) and a true WR1 in Xavier Worthy. I don’t expect Oklahoma to lay another dud in this rivalry. This lives up to the hype as one of the more exciting Week 6 college football matchups. Points galore in Dallas.
Maryland (5-0) vs. #4 Ohio State (4-0)
Ohio State -19.5; O/U 57.5
Ohio State Team Total Over 37.5 (-130)
Over 57 (-110)
Since Ryan Day replaced Urban Meyer full time in 2019, Ohio State has topped 40-points in 23 of 32 Big Ten contests, including 11 of 16 at home. If you exclude games against Penn State and Michigan, the record improves to 20 in 25 overall (80%) and 11 of 13 at home (85%). Against Maryland in Day’s tenure, Ohio State has put up 73, 66, and 43 last year against the Terrapins. The over has cashed in 65% of Day’s Big Ten home contests, and eight of 11 coming off a bye. The Buckeyes put their offense on display against a good Western Kentucky team before a defensive showdown in South Bend. I think that continues coming off a bye as Big Ten play heats up for both teams. Expect a high scoring affair for Week 6 in Columbus.
#23 LSU (3-2) vs. #21 Missouri (5-0)
Missouri +4; O/U 64.5
Over 64.5 (-110)
These teams have combined to go 9-1 in favor of the over this season. With Brian Kelly at LSU, the over is a perfect 5-0 after a loss, 5-1 against ranked foes, and 8-4 in conference.
LSU has surrendered 33.3 PPG in conference play, with 86 coming to Arkansas and Ole Miss the last two weeks.
For Eli Drinkwitz, the over is 7-2 when Missouri is a home underdog. LSU is known as DBU, but rank 109th in pass defense (260.2 YPG). This matchup features two of the best receivers in the country. Missouri’s true sophomore, former five-star Luther Burden III, leads the country in receiving yards (644). LSU’s Malik Nabers trails him with 625, and teammate Brian Thomas Jr. is top-10 in yards and tied for the country’s lead with eight touchdowns. I think both teams air it out in Columbia with Missouri potentially pulling the upset.
Central Florida (3-2) vs. Kansas (4-1)
Kansas +1; O/U 65
UCF -1 (-110)
This line opened with Kansas as a 2.5-point favorite to a 1-point underdog. The belief lies with the quarterbacks for both teams: Central Florida is expected to get back John Rhys Plumlee (10-5 as a starter) while Kansas is expected to be without Jalon Daniels. Daniels missed last game against Texas and was replaced by senior Jason Bean. Bean went 9-21 for 136 yards and a score, while adding seven rushes for 42 yards on the ground against Texas. This Kansas team is nowhere near as dynamic without Daniels, and I’ll gladly fade a Kansas team that is 1-7 SU as a home underdog (7-0 as a home favorite) under Lance Leipold.
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