College Football Week 4 Best Bets
Week 4 College Football Best Bets
The Week 3 college football schedule was a bit of a letdown. No top-25 matchups, heavy favorites across the board. But even a “down” week in college football turned out great. We saw upsets in the SEC, while perennial powerhouse programs struggled. Some teams that struggled early in the season might have found their footing before the heart of their schedule.
And now we head into a loaded Week 4 college football slate. Six ranked matchups, and that doesn’t include Florida State/Clemson. Conference matchups begin, and plenty of teams are on upset alert.
To be more on par with the ‘best bets’ part of the post, we’re limiting each write up to the five best bets for a given week. In previous articles, there has consisted of a dozen or so plays across the college football landscape. The goal moving forward will be more focused on top plays rather than a larger card. With that said, here are my favorite Week 4 college football best bets.
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Kentucky (3-0) vs. Vanderbilt (2-2)
Vanderbilt +13.5; O/U 50.5
Under 50.5 (-110)
This is an interesting spot for Kentucky. Kentucky goes on the road for the first time this season and welcomes Florida to town next week. They have had points of offensive struggles this season, including a slow game against Eastern Kentucky and a slow start against Ball State. Devin Leary was banged up last week, but reports suggest he had the wind knocked out and could have returned if it was a closer contest.
The over has hit in each of Vanderbilt’s first four games, but all have come against non-conference foes. With Clark Lea as the leader of the Commodores, the over is 10-2 in non-conference matchups. That switches when they begin conference play, where totals have favored the under. The under is 11-5 in SEC matchups under Lea, including the two previous matchups against Kentucky. And it boosts better for Mark Stoops on Kentucky’s sideline, where the under is 5-2 as road favorites. Since he arrived in 2013, the under is 51-31 in the SEC and 31-15 in road contests. It’s an 11 AM kickoff in Nashville, and I think this is a slower game. The under is the play for this SEC contest.
#16 Oklahoma (3-0) vs. Cincinnati (2-1)
Cincinnati +14.5; O/U 57.5
Cincinnati +14.5 (-110)
Oklahoma is back! What turned out to be an embarrassing first year for Brent Venables now has Oklahoma ranked and off to a 3-0 start. Not so fast; this is a spitting image of last year’s Oklahoma team. Not tested whatsoever in non-conference play, outscoring opponents 167 to 28 (last year was 127 to 30). They went 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in non-conference play the last two seasons. But we all remember how conference play went for the Sooners – they went 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS. There was a vast difference in home vs. road splits for the Sooners last year. The Sooners averaged 6.8 yards per play at home compared to 5.5 on the road. Oklahoma averaged 37.3 PPG in home conference games compared to 29.8 on the road, with 48 of their 119 road points coming in an overtime loss to Texas Tech.
This is Cincinnati’s first game as a member of the Big 12 and it luckily comes at home. In Scott Satterfield’s four years at Louisville, the Cardinals were 15-7-1 ATS off a loss. So far in the 2023 season, home underdogs are 28-23 ATS. Cincinnati lost a surprising one last week against Miami of Ohio in overtime after Emory Jones threw two interceptions and a game winning field goal was blocked at the end of regulation. I think this week Cincinnati gets back on track against Oklahoma. Maybe not winning outright, but keeping it in the number.
Buffalo (0-3) vs. Louisiana (2-1)
Louisiana -8.5; O/U 59.5
Louisiana -8.5 (-110)
We’re going to keep with a theme until it proves us wrong. We picked on Buffalo in last week’s writeup. Under Maurice Linguist since 2021, Buffalo is 2-12-1 ATS coming off a loss. They lost last week to Liberty and have lost at Wisconsin and Fordham at home this season. Buffalo ranks 131st of 133 FBS programs in scoring defense, surrendering 44.3 PPG. The Bulls rank 130th in rush defense, allowing 6.7 YPC to opposing running backs.
For Louisiana, the strength in their offense is on the ground. The Ragin’ Cajuns rank 12th in yards on the ground at 228 YPG. Eight of their 14 touchdowns come via the run. They have used a running back by committee approach; 11 carries by Elijah Davis against UAB last week is the most by a back this season. Going with a fresh back approach spells trouble for a terrible run defense. Louisiana could have a look ahead spot, as they take on Minnesota next week. But I think this could get ugly in the second half for the Bulls. This is my favorite play for the Week 4 college football schedule.
Akron (0-3) vs. Indiana (1-2)
Indiana -16.5; O/U 46.5
Under 46.5 (-110)
Indiana’s offense has been mediocre at best; against their two FBS opponents this season, Indiana ranks 108th nationally in yards per play. This is the 7th worst mark among Power Five schools. But what has been great about Indiana is their defense. The Hoosiers held Ohio State to 23 points, the first time they were held under 30 points since 2001. The total in the Hoosiers two FBS games averaged just 30.5 PPG. This presents a prime lookahead spot for the Hoosiers as well, kicking off Big Ten play at Maryland next week.
Akron ranks 120th in yards per play out of 133 eligible schools. The under is 5-1-1 in Akron non-conference games under Jim Moorhead, including 3-0 this year. Under Moorhead, Akron has played against three Power Five programs in two years; they have combined for nine points across the three contests. Indiana’s offensive struggles paired with a bad Akron team spell an ugly contest in Bloomington.
#5 USC (4-0) vs. Arizona State (1-2)
Arizona State +35; O/U 62
USC -35 (-110)
Arizona State appears to be in shambles. This offense ranks 125th in yards per play, the worst mark among Power Five programs. Since Kenny Dillingham arrived on campus last year, the Sun Devils are 1-5 ATS as home underdogs. And while home underdogs are 28-23 ATS this season, teams favored by 30+ points are 11-9-1. USC is 1-1 ATS in such matchups. And while this could be a lookahead before traveling to Boulder to take on Deion Sanders and Colorado, Caleb Williams and company won’t need much time to light up the Sun Devils defense. The Week 4 college football weekend concluded with a thumping of Arizona State, courtesy of the Trojans.
Follow me @DrewRoberts_ and let me know your favorite Week 4 college football play
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