College Football Week 3 Best Bets

Week 3 College Football Best Bets

After last week’s loaded Week 2 schedule, we return to a bit of a snooze-fest for Week 3. But even with a dull slate, your eyes will still be glued to a television watching college football this Saturday. Might as well make a little money while you do it. Here are my favorite Week 3 best bets for the college football schedule.

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(Friday) Virginia (0-2) vs. Maryland (2-0)

Maryland -14.5; O/U 49.5

Maryland -14.5 (-108)

Virginia is coming off a heartbreaking loss, where they honored three teammates who passed in last year’s on campus shooting. They blew an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter, allowing the game winning touchdown with under a minute to go. Virginia is 1-4 ATS in non-conference matchups under Tony Elliott, with that lone cover coming last week as a home underdog. Meanwhile, Maryland is 9-4 in non-conference under Mike Locksley; they are 10-22 ATS in conference matchups. Maryland has failed to cover their first two no-conference matchups this season, but Virginia represents a Power Five foe, where the Terrapins have covered their last three out of conference. Maryland caps off their non-conference schedule with a three score victory over Virginia in Week 3.

 

#14 LSU (1-1) vs. Mississippi State (2-0)

Mississippi State +9; O/U 54.5

Mississippi State +9 (-110)

Home underdogs are 19-13 ATS and 11-21 SU through Week 2. A $10 bet on every home underdog moneyline would have bettors up $58.52 heading into Week 3.

This is an early kickoff down in Starkville. While LSU went 3-1 last year on the road in Kelly’s first season, they were bad at covering the spread. As a road favorite, LSU went 0-3 ATS, with two wins coming by four and three points. The other was a 15-point blowout loss at Texas A&M, ruining any hope of the College Football Playoffs.

Former defensive coordinator Zach Arnett takes over for the late Mike Leach as the Bulldogs head coach. Mississippi State has transitioned from a pass heavy offense under Leach (48.6 att./gm) to a more run heavy offense (23 pass att./gm). State has a veteran quarterback in Will Rogers who can keep this game close and bring back a more air raid offense if needed. I believe State keeps this one within the number against the Tigers.

 

Liberty (2-0) vs. Buffalo (0-2)

Buffalo +3.5; O/U55

Liberty -3.5 (-110)

Right after mentioning home dogs starting the year off hot, I’m taking a road favorite in Liberty. Under Buffalo’s head coach Maurice Linguist, the Bulls have not done well following a loss. The Bulls are 2-11-1 ATS coming off a loss; they lost Week 1 against Wisconsin and followed it up in Week 2 with a loss to FCS Fordham. Liberty brought back Kaiden Salter to run Jamey Chadwell’s offense. Liberty has used two backs this season – Quinton Cooley and Billy Lucas. Buffalo has allowed 6.9 YPC to opposing running backs the first two weeks. Given Liberty’s run heavy offense, I’ll take this road favorite in Liberty as one of my Week 3 best bets.

 

#10 Alabama (1-1) vs. South Florida (1-1)

South Florida +32; O/U 61.5

Alabama -32 (-110; 2 units)

Another road favorite for Week 3. Alabama is 5-1 ATS in their last six coming off a loss, and now they head to Tampa to take on the Bulls of South Florida. South Florida’s head coach Alex Golesh is heading into his third game as a head coach and gets a pissed off Nick Saban and Crimson Tide. South Florida has managed to cover against Florida the last two seasons, but both of those teams finished 500 to close the year. I think Alabama gets back on track by blowing out South Florida and is one of my favorite Week 3 best bets.

 

San Diego State (2-1) vs. #16 Oregon State (2-0)

Oregon State -24.5; O/U 48.5

Oregon State -24.5 (-110)

This mark improved to 13-0 after a 55-7 route of UC Davis last week. Under Brady Hoke, the Aztecs have failed to cover their last three against the Pac 12. But this is more about the Beavers; I’m not going to fade this trend under Jonathan Smith. Beavers at home is the play.

 

#11 Tennessee (2-0) vs. Florida (1-1)

Florida +6.5; O/U 58.5

Under 58.5 (-110)

Both Florida and Tennessee offenses have been shaky to start the season. Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz is still looking for a grove in Billy Napier’s offense, an offense that is replacing the fourth overall pick in last April’s NFL Draft. Tennessee is also finding their footing with new faces on offense, replacing Hendon Hooker, Jalin Hyatt, and Cedric Tillman with Joe Milton III, Ramel Keyton, and Bru McCoy. Both teams will rely on their defenses to keep the opposing offenses in their sluggish ways. I think Florida continues to find the endzone against top competition and the under cashes.

Georgia Tech (1-1) vs. #17 Ole Miss (2-0)

Ole Miss -19; O/U 63

Under 63 (-110)

This could be a prime look ahead spot for Ole Miss, as they head to Tuscaloosa next week. In the eight home games for Ole Miss since the start of 2022, the Rebels have allowed just 19.3 PPG. The under is 3-5 in that span. Since LSU snapped the Rebels winning streak a year ago, the Rebels are 2-6 against FBS teams and averaging 26.6 PPG. I don’t believe Ole Miss will give Alabama much film heading into next week. Mississippi wins but falls under the game total.

Kansas (2-0) vs. Nevada (0-2)

Nevada +28; O/U 58.5

Over 58.5 (-110)

Since Lance Leipold arrived in Lawrence in 2021, the over has hit 11 of 12 road contests. Nine of the 12 have eclipsed 60-points. The three that failed had game totals of 58, 59, and 58, respectively. Kansas’s defense has allowed at least 30 points in each road contest under Leipold. Nevada gave up 66 alone to powerhouse USC two weeks ago. While Nevada is tracking as one of the worst teams in FBS (they lost to FCS Idaho 33-6 a week ago), I think they can put up a score or two to help the cause. Over 58.5 is one of my favorite Week 3 best bets.

 

Other Plays:

(Friday) Army/UTSA Under 45 (-110)

UTSA Frank Harris is dealing with an injury, paired with run dominant Army offense.

#15 Kansas State -4.5 @ Missouri (-110)

Kansas State is 3-0-2 ATS as away favorites and 10-5 ATS in non-conference matchups under Chris Klieman.

Toledo -7 vs. San Jose State (-108)

San Jose State is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. Toledo would be in the conversation for AP ranking if not for a last second loss in Champaign. 

Houston +7.5 vs. TCU (-110)

Another home underdog makes it to the Week 3 best bets card. I’m not ready to believe in TCU just yet after seeing their defense against Colorado. Houston is 6-1 SU in their last seven following a loss going back to 2021. Cougars are a live underdog this week.

 

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