College Football Conference Championship Best Bets
College Football Conference Championship Best Bets
A shortened college football weekend holds the most weight. Conference championship weekend will decide who advances to the College Football Playoffs, and who will be letdown and go to other bowls. Here are my favorite college football conference championship plays.
College Football Week 12 Best Bets: 3-1 (75%; +2 units)
College Football Best Bets Record: 22-20-1 (52%; +2 units)
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Conference USA Championship (Lynchburg, Virginia)*
New Mexico State (10-3) vs. #24 Liberty (12-0)
Liberty -11; O/U 57
New Mexico State +11 (-110)
* Game on Friday, December 1st @7:00 PM
I refuse to discount the fighting Jerry Kills. New Mexico State is 5-0-1 ATS as an underdog since their loss at Liberty early this year and winners of eight straight. New Mexico State’s loss to Liberty earlier this year is also the only blemish ATS for Jerry Kill in Conference USA (7-1 ATS & SU). Liberty is undefeated and 8-4 ATS, but are just 3-4 ATS when favored by double-digits. I think New Mexico State keeps this close to avenge their loss earlier this year.
More: Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings
PAC 12 Championship (Las Vegas, NV)*
#5 Oregon (11-1) vs. #3 Washington (12-0)
Washington +10; O/U 66
Washington: Team Total Under 27.5 (-110)
Under 66 (-119)
* Game on Friday, December 1st @ 8:00 PM
Washington’s offense has taken a step back since their thrilling win over Oregon in mid-October. This marked the halfway point of their season, where Washington was averaging 44.3 PPG after their win over the Ducks. That dropped in the second half of the season, where the Huskies averaged just 31.7 PPG.
Michael Penix Jr. was off to a hot start and the rightful Heisman favorite. In September, Penix completed 74.7% of his attempts, 11.2 YPA, 16 touchdowns and two interceptions. That declined each month after; in October, this dropped to 60.3%, 8.2 YPA, eight touchdowns and four interceptions. And continued in November – 57.9%, 7.2 YPA, eight touchdowns and two interceptions. Washington has missed viable passing options Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan at points during that stretch, but still a concern for Washington’s offense.
Since their loss to the Huskies, Oregon allows just 16 PPG defensively, with four of the six games against bowl eligible teams. Only two of the six teams in that span cleared their team total over. No team has cleared 27 points against Oregon in that span. I think Oregon gets their revenge against Washington on their way to the College Football Playoffs.
Related: Bucky Irving Scouting Report
Big 12 Championship (Arlington, TX)
#18 Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. #7 Texas (11-1)
Texas -15.5; O/U 55
Under 55 (-112)
The UNDER is 8-4 in Texas games this year, including 6-3 in conference play. Ollie Gordon II leads the country in rushing (1,580), but gets his toughest test to date. Texas is the 5th best rush defense nationally (85 YPG allowed; 2.9 YPC), allowing just seven touchdowns on the ground and forcing eight fumbles. When Oklahoma State has not had a 100-yard rusher this year, they average 16 PPG; the Cowboys average 37.3 PPG when they have a 100-yard rusher. Texas has allowed a 100-yard rusher just twice this year – Dillon Gabriel at Oklahoma and Harrison Waylee of Wyoming. This championship game UNDER has cashed in eight straight. I think they make it nine in this Conference Championship
More: Trending Players You Need To Know Before Week 13 Fantasy Football
SEC Championship (Atlanta, GA)
#8 Alabama (11-1) vs. #1 Georgia (12-0)
Georgia -5.5; O/U 54.5
Over 54.5 (-112)
Since Nick Saban made his first SEC Championship with the Tide in 2008, Alabama averages 37.4 PPG in the SEC Championship. The last four have cleared 60 points, and six of nine have cleared this 54.5-point total. In Alabama’s eight conference games this year, the OVER is 6-1-1. Georgia has made the SEC Championship in six of Kirby Smart’s eight seasons. In the previous five games, Georgia averages 28 PPG. However, the game total in that span is 58 PPG. In Georgia’s conference games this year, the OVER is 5-3. The OVER is 12-2 in the last 14 SEC Championships. Everywhere you look, there will be NFL talent on the field. This game tends to be high scoring, and I think that continues Saturday. I’m on the OVER in this SEC Championship game in what should be a top game of Conference Championship weekend.
Follow me @DrewRoberts_ and let me know your favorite Conference Championship college football play
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