Rookie running backs continue to see their fair share of opportunity for fantasy relevance; and in some cases, stardom. This class has some future studs in the making, and others waiting for their shot to shine. Let’s take a closer look at their utilization and performance from week 3.
I have determined rookies to make the report will qualify by achieving one of the following:
- 30 percent offensive snap share
- Scoring a touchdown
- Special circumstance
- i.e. high draft capital, relevant production despite snap share, unforeseen playing time due to game script, injury, etc.
The report will be organized by position, listing players in order of their snap share percentage; ties granted to draft position. Offensive snap share statistics are derived from footballoutsiders.com, and player statistics, including PFF grades, are pulled from PFF’s Premium Stats. Positional rankings for the week will be included, as will points scored, each from Fantasy Pros. The most recent game will be discussed in the Overview section, while the Outlook will give a glimpse of how to value the player moving forward.
Running Backs
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 3: 28.2 PPR fantasy points (RB1)
Statistics: 95% snap share, 14 rush, 60 yards, 2.9 YPC, 19 targets, 14 receptions, 102 yards
PFF Grade: 57.3
Overview: Big Ben’s average depth of target has been declining for years now, but week 3 hit a new level of unfathomable outcomes for NFL quarterbacks. Roethlisberger targeted his running back an ungodly 19 times against the Bengals. Najee Harris ran 56 routes from all over the formation in week 3, compared to 65 routes combined over the first two weeks. Shockingly, Harris’ efficiency skyrocketed with more volume. Najee Harris posted his highest yards per route run (Y/RR) of the young season, finishing with 1.82.
Top-5 RBs in Week 3 Target Share
1.Najee Harris 33%
2. Chase Edmonds 24%
3.D’Andre Swift 23%
4.Kareem Hunt 23%
5.Alexander Mattison 21%— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) September 28, 2021
We’re not done yet… Harris ended the game with an average depth of target (aDoT) of -0.3 yards and 108 total yards after the catch (YAC). His performance was unreal, finishing as the overall PPR RB1 in week 3.
Running backs with 20+ Weighted Opportunities per game:
Derrick Henry
Najee Harris
Dalvin CookEnd list.
— Spence (@JTRB1) September 28, 2021
Outlook: Najee Harris posted his first 100-yards-from-scrimmage day of his professional career, eclipsing the century mark in the receiving game alone. Harris had more yards from scrimmage in week 3 (162) than he had in the previous two weeks combined (130). Harris currently has more receiving yards than he does rushing, and that stat will hold up through season’s end. The Steelers run game is the worst in the NFL, currently owning the lowest rush play success rate by well over 10-percentage points, at 17-percent.
Steelers’ Najee Harris has been hit at or behind the LOS on 70% of his carries — highest rate in the NFL, per @PFF.
— Austin Gayle (@PFF_AustinGayle) September 27, 2021
Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers, Week 3: 11.4 PPR fantasy points (RB26)
Statistics: 59% snap share, 10 rush, 31 yards, 3.1 YPC, 1 TD, 3 targets, 2 receptions, 3 yards
PFF Grade: 55.0
Overview: Trey Sermon got his first start on Sunday night, and looked like a backup. He did well breaking tackles (4) and picking up yards after contact (25), but struggled finding space and cutting upfield on zone concepts. Sermon finished with a spell back statline due to negative game script and ground game inefficiency. He scored his first touchdown to pull the 49ers within one score in the fourth quarter, sending the San Francisco crowd (and Trey Sermon truthers) into a frenzy.
TREY AREAAA! @treyera dives in the end zone for his first NFL TD 🙌
📺 #GBvsSF on NBC pic.twitter.com/zzryXe0qwr
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) September 27, 2021
Outlook: As of Tuesday night, the 49ers are unsure if Elijah Mitchell will be available for their week 5 matchup against the Seahawks. Trey Sermon has not impressed enough to assume the starting role if Mitchell is healthy, and will likely find more efficiency as a power-runner with Mitchell’s speed in the lineup anyways. He’s not droppable in any format because he is a talented back in Kyle Shanahan’s run-heavy scheme. Monitor Mitchell’s status if you’re looking to stream Sermon this week.
Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers, Week 3: 10.9 PPR fantasy points (RB28)
Statistics: 55% snap share, 11 rush, 52 yards, 4.7 YPC, 5 targets, 3 receptions, 27 yards
PFF Grade: 67.0
Overview: When CMC left the game with a hamstring injury, offensive coordinator Joe Brady head coach Matt Rhule turned to their rookie out of Oklahoma State, Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard finished the game with the highest PFF grade and yards per carry (YPC) of all rookie running backs in week 3. Meanwhile, Royce Freeman finished with just five carries, averaging 3.4 yards per attempt. Hubbard should be the top waiver priority for week 4.
Pumped to see Running Back Chuba Hubbard in the upcoming weeks for Carolina! 📈📈🏈
✅ Physical, Vision & Speed as Runner ⚠️ Pass Protection & Receiving Skills
Panthers play Cowboys, Eagles, Vikings, Giants 🤗 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
RB2 with 1️⃣ Upside?!🤔💭
#FantasyFootball #NFLTwitter pic.twitter.com/autFhsKhJL
— MattyDaddy🎙 (@MattyDaddyFF) September 28, 2021
Outlook: Someone help me understand why the fantasy twitter community is fading Chuba Hubbard after filling in mid-game and averaging 4.7 yards per carry (YPC) and 1.42 yards per route run (Y/RR). Hubbard displayed sound efficiency against a defense that prepared to take the running back out of the game to the best of their abilities. Christian McCaffrey is expected to miss “a few weeks,” according to the Panthers social media page. We saw what happened last year with McCaffrey struggling to return from injury, so Chuba may be more valuable than currently anticipated. Don’t touch Royce Freeman.
Michael Carter, New York Jets, Week 3: 4.9 PPR fantasy points (RB48)
Statistics: 43% snap share, 9 rush, 24 yards, 2.7 YPC, 3 targets, 2 receptions, 5 yards
PFF Grade: 52.1
Overview: Believe it or not, Michael Carter was the Jets leading rusher in yards and attempts in week 3. Even more surprising, it seemed as though Carter and Ty Johnson switched roles in week 3. Carter took the bulk of the ground work but Ty Johnson out-targeted the rookie. That will be a concern if it continues, as Carter’s target opportunity gives him the most upside in the Jets backfield. The Jets offensive line isn’t going to create any gaping run lanes for these backs, so target share will be the difference maker.
Dre’Mont Jones almost beats Michael Carter to the ball. pic.twitter.com/hvbQRCykC4
— Joe Rowles (@JoRo_NFL) September 26, 2021
Outlook: Michael Carter has talent, but I’m afraid there might not be much around him. Running back success is predicated on its surrounding elements, and the Jets aren’t offering much, currently ranked bottom-10 in all expected points added (EPA) metrics, per RBSDM. The Jets pass attack ranks dead last in EPA per drop back, while the best of their metrics lies with the run game, currently ranked tenth-worst in rushing EPA and rush play success rate. The Jets EPA per rush play is higher than EPA per pass play, which is an embarrassment.
As mentioned last week, Carter’s fantasy outlook will benefit from negative game scripts due to his receiving prowess. He’ll be a PPR streamer in deeper leagues until this offense finds success throwing the football.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos, Week 3: 13.2 PPR fantasy points (RB25)
Statistics: 40% snap share, 12 rush, 29 yards, 2.4 YPC, 1 TD, 1 fumble, 4 targets, 3 receptions, 33 yards
PFF Grade: 42.3
Overview: It was a tale of two halves for Javonte Williams in week 3. Take a look at his splits by half:
- First Half: 6 rush, 30 yards, 1 TD, 2 targets, 1 reception, 17 yards
- Second Half: 6 rush, -1 yard, 1 fumble, 2 targets, 2 receptions, 16 yards
I am not concerned about Williams’ second half struggles. This game was a total snoozefest – the Broncos had a 95.4-percent win probability at halftime. Their offense became transparent and the rookie got sloppy with the ball, resulting in a lost fumble, his worst PFF grade, and his worst elusiveness rating of the early season. On the bright side, he punched in the first touchdown of his NFL career:
JAVONTE WILLIAMS’ FIRST NFL TD#BroncosCountry pic.twitter.com/VclRZY3l0g
— Barstool Denver (@BarstoolDenver) September 26, 2021
Outlook: Melvin Gordon out-touched Williams in both halves, which is to be expected for at least another six weeks. Despite playing in a timeshare, Javonte Williams is currently third among all backs in forced missed tackles, behind Nick Chubb and Dalvin Cook. The Broncos host the Ravens in week 4, their first real challenge of the season. I think we will see a split no different from what we’ve seen up to this point. Williams may inch closer back to the 50-percent snap share he saw in week 1, but head coach Vic Fangio (and Melvin Gordon) have given us no reason to believe he will exceed that this week.
Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles, Week 3: 6.4 PPR fantasy points (RB42)
Statistics: 31% snap share, 1 rush, 2 yards, 2.0 YPC, 4 targets, 3 receptions, 32 yards
PFF Grade: 55.4
Overview: Kenneth Gainwell was absent from the game plan in week 3. Heading into the fourth quarter on Monday night, Gainwell had just one target that fell incomplete in the third quarter. All of Kenneth Gainwell’s touches came in garbage time after the Cowboys went up 34-14. Miles Sanders conceded nothing meaningful in this primetime division rivalry.
Outlook: Kenneth Gainwell’s utilization is going in the wrong direction. It appears as though head coach Nick Sirianni is easing Miles Sanders into a bell cow role, as Gainwell’s snap shares have decreased each week. At his current pace, Gainwell won’t even qualify for this report next week. He’s trending towards nothing more than a handcuff; still worth a dynasty roster spot.
