Hop Off the Chris Godwin Hype Train
What is that speeding missile off in the distance? It’s the Chris Godwin hype train and it’s full steam ahead. I will not be buying any tickets today or in the near future–at least until it slows down a bit.
The Arians Factor
Bucs head coach Bruce Arians recently said that Godwin could have 100 catches this season. An Arians WR2 has never reached that milestone. Hines Ward was the only Arians-led WR2 to come close, with 95 receptions in 2009. He was the WR16 that year, which is the highest finishing WR2 of Arians’ tenure as either an offensive coordinator or head coach. Including the great year by Ward in 2009, Arians’ WR2 has had an average finish of WR33. This is not great if you consider DLF’s May ADP data which has Godwin as the WR23. The top-five WR2 seasons under Arians include Antonio Brown, Ward, and T.Y. Hilton, and have an average finish of WR24. While these wide receivers went on to have multiple WR1 seasons later in their careers, they did not have a 26-year-old stud (Mike Evans) who averaged 1,000 yards in five consecutive seasons to compete with for targets.
Current Value
The most alarming facet of the Godwin hype is the players and picks dynasty gamers are willing to give up to acquire him. I searched through twitter and the DLF trade finder to find deals which Godwin was the center piece. Of those trades, I found only one which the Godwin side was getting the better end of the deal. I saw many overpays and few trades that were fair value. Below are some examples:
| Gave Up | Received |
| RB Derrius Guice, WAS | WR Chris Godwin, TBB
2019 2.01 |
| RB Ito Smith, ATL
WR Kenny Stills, MIA |
WR Chris Godwin, TBB |
| WR Cooper Kupp, LAR | WR Chris Godwin, TBB
|
| WR Tyler Boyd, CIN | WR Chris Godwin, TBB
2019 3.06 |
| WR Sammy Watkins, KC | WR Chris Godwin, TBB |
| WR Stefon Diggs, MIN | WR Chris Godwin, TBB
RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL
2019 5.09 2020 3rd |
| 2 2020 1st | WR Chris Godwin, TBB |
| RB Philip Lindsay, DEN | WR Chris Godwin, TBB |
| RB Leonard Fournette, JAX | WR Chris Godwin, TBB |
Conclusion
The Ito Smith and Kenny Stills trade clearly favors the Godwin side. Outside of that deal, I would take the non-Godwin side. The Godwin hype is out of control. SELL. SELL. SELL. Use these trades as your outline and try to get the sucker who will give you Leonard Fournette for the WR24 in dynasty.
