Championship Time: Week 16 Rookie Stock Update
We made it, it’s championship week. For those of you in the big dance, congratulations! For the rest of you, remember that it’s supposed to be fun and when those bad beats wear off (yes I lost by less than half a point) you’ll find that spark again.
This is the last Rookie Stock Take of the season so for those who are still reading, thank you and I hope you’ve enjoyed this series. I’ll do some full-season reviews in the coming months and then we’ll ride again in 2021.
Here is the Week 16 rookie stock update.
Starters
Quarterback
- Justin Herbert
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Jalen Hurts
Justin Herbert
- 27 Touchdowns – he’s now tied with Baker for the rookie record with two games to play. He’s thrown a touchdown in all but one game this season and thrown two or more in nine, he’s going to get there with room to spare
- 11.2 IAY/A – I delve further in to Intended Air Yards per Attempt (IAY/A) in my Projections Retrospective article but it’s worth pointing out that Herbert had a IAY/A of between five and seven yards for four straight weeks, and only topped double-digits once before this season. This was a step away from the Ekeler dump-offs and back to slinging it downfield
- Championship game – Denver
Outlook: After a couple of down weeks, Herbert has bounced back when you needed him. Play him as a top 10 QB option
Tua Tagovailoa
- 145 passing yards – Tua had been playing like Fitzmagic for a couple of weeks there but he was back down to the low volume and low yardage that he’d had prior
- Rushing Touchdowns – but his fantasy day was saved with two rushing touchdowns. We know by now how valuable they are to a Quarterback in fantasy, perhaps somewhat inspired by his opposite number in this one
- Championship game – at Las Vegas
Outlook: I’m already hearing many call for Tua to be a much higher play in week 16 but I’m not there if he’s going to play like this. Las Vegas aren’t a difficult matchup and I can easily see a similar performance from Tua. Take away those rushing touchdowns and you’re going to be disappointed. I’m not relying on him to win my league unless it’s a 2QB/Superflex format
Week 15 One-to-Watch: Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts
- 338 passing yards – last week his production was dependent on that rushing floor, this week he took a step as a passer by throwing for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns. Even without his rushing numbers, that’s a fantastic result
- Rushing – tack on 63 yards rushing and a rushing touchdown. He’s producing 2019 Lamar Jackson and 2020 Kyler Murray numbers on the ground
- Championship game – at Dallas
Outlook: After week 14, I advocated to wait one more week to see what he came up with. No more waiting, get him in your lineup for your championship game
Running Back
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Jonathan Taylor
- Antonio Gibson (Injured)
- Joshua Kelley
- D’Andre Swift
- JK Dobbins
- James Robinson
- Cam Akers
- Zack Moss
Clyde Edwards-Helaire |
||
| Snaps | 45 (46-percent) | Last Week: 46 (74-percent) |
| Carries | 14 (34-percent) | Last Week: 16 (67-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 2 (29-percent) | Last Week: 1 (100-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 2 (50-percent) | Last Week: 0 (team total = 0) |
| Targets | 3 (6-percent) | Last Week: 6 (18-percent of team total) |
- Redzone – he got a little bit of redzone work this week but not a lot. He wasn’t in for the whole game though
- Injury – hip and ankle injuries have put an end to CEH’s fantasy season
Outlook: Well the good news is you don’t have to make a difficult decision on him. See you next season Clyde
Jonathan Taylor |
||
| Snaps | 38 (70-percent) | Last Week: 34 (56-percent) |
| Carries | 16 (70-percent) | Last Week: 20 (65-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 2 (67-percent) | Last Week: 4 (57-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 2 (100-percent) | Last Week: 2 (67-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 5 (17-percent) | Last Week: 2 (7-percent of team total) |
- Lead-back – look at those numbers, they’re the numbers of a lead back
- 5 Targets – the carries are good, the yardage was ok and the touchdown was great. But what was really pleasing was to see 5 targets, his highest since week 1
- Championship Game – at Pittsburgh
Outlook: He’s hit his straps at the right time and he’s on a charge. Potentially tricky matchup against the Steelers in championship week but you aren’t benching him now. Play him as an RB1, if he gets a touchdown then you’ve got what you paid for him
Joshua Kelley |
||
| Snaps | 5 (8-percent) | Last Week: Inactive |
| Carries | 2 (7-percent) | Last Week: Inactive |
| Redzone carries | 0 | Last Week: Inactive |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 | Last Week: Inactive |
| Targets | 0 | Last Week: Inactive |
- Role – his role is a minor one in this team, getting a couple of kick returns and a couple of carries
- Championship Game – Denver
Outlook: He can’t even get in the team when there’s injuries. Next…
Week 15 One-to-Watch: D’Andre Swift
D’Andre Swift |
||
| Snaps | 42 (65-percent) | Last Week: 36 (53-percent) |
| Carries | 15 (56-percent) | Last Week: 7 (47-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 5 (50-percent) | Last Week: 2 (40-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 4 (67-percent) | Last Week: 2 (50-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 5 (13-percent) | Last Week: 5 (13-percent of team total) |
- Volume – He’s getting most of the touches and the Lions ran the ball more in this one. They’re starting to realise what they have in Swift and using him how he should be. As for targets, he’s had 4 or 5 targets in all but one game this season (week 3)
- Touchdowns – Swift got most of the redzone work this week and after punching in another two touchdowns, you have to think he’ll be doing even more of that next week
- Championship Game – Tampa Bay
Outlook: The excitement of his talent translating to fantasy points is palpable. It’s rough luck that he has a matchup against Tampa Bay in week 16. He’ll be in the RB2 range and will need his pass-catching role to do the business
JK Dobbins |
||
| Snaps | 35 (53-percent) | Last Week: 37 (62-percent) |
| Carries | 14 (38-percent) | Last Week: 13 (41-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 5 (63-percent) | Last Week: 2 (29-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 2 (40-percent) | Last Week: 2 (67-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 1 (4-percent) | Last Week: 0 |
- 81 total yards – that’s not bad but it’s not championship-winning numbers. What could win championships is those touchdowns, reaching the end-zone for 4 weeks in a row now
- Split backfield – Dobbins is the lead guy and Mark Ingram appears to have gone away. But Gus Edwards is still getting plenty of work and that pesky Lamar Jackson has found his skates again
- Championship Game – New York Giants
Outlook: New York is not as easy a matchup as you’d think but I’d be rolling Dobbins out as an RB2 with hopes of a touchdown or two
James Robinson |
||
| Snaps | 36 (62-percent) | Last Week: 40 (56-percent) |
| Carries | 16 (73-percent) | Last Week: 12 (80-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 1 (100-percent) | Last Week: 0 (team total = 0) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (100-percent) | Last Week: 0 (team total = 0) |
| Targets | 3 (10-percent) | Last Week: 4 (7-percent of team total) |
- 35 rushing yards – it was the tough matchup that we’ve been afraid of for weeks. No doubting Robinson’s talent but this was a tough slog
- Injury – looks like a high ankle sprain that will keep him out of the championship game
Outlook: There was going to be a lot of nervous questions about whether to start Robinson in week 16 and that choice has been made for us. Shame to see him go down without his chance to win championships, we thank you for your service this season James
Cam Akers |
||
| Snaps | 36 (61-percent) | Last Week: 50 (79-percent) |
| Carries | 15 (81-percent) | Last Week: 29 (81-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 3 (100-percent) | Last Week: 5 (83-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (100-percent) | Last Week: 4 (80-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 3 (9-percent) | Last Week: 3 (12-percent of team total) |
- Lead back – once again, those numbers show a true lead back on his team. The time has come to stop questioning if McVay is going to revert back to the other backs, it’s Akers’ backfield
- Injury – another rookie who was ready to take us to championship glory, and another injury that is going to put him out of action
Outlook: Another thank you for the past few weeks, taking many to the playoffs with that week 14 performance. We’ll see you next year too Cam
Zack Moss |
||
| Snaps | 34 (47-percent) | Last Week: 44 (59-percent) |
| Carries | 13 (54-percent) | Last Week: 13 (48-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 5 (56-percent) | Last Week: 3 (60-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 2 (67-percent) | Last Week: 1 (100-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 0 | Last Week: 1 (2-percent of team total) |
- 81 rushing yards – that’s his joint highest of the season and it’s the first time he’s gone back to back games with double-digit carries
- Split – this is still a straight-up timeshare on a team that doesn’t run the ball well. Singletary takes his fair share and Allen takes the rest
- Championship Game – at New England
Outlook: If you have no choice but to play Moss because you’re in a deep league and you just lost players to injury, good luck, you’re going to need it. For everyone else, don’t spend time considering him as an option, look elsewhere
Wide Receiver
- Jerry Jeudy
- CeeDee Lamb
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Justin Jefferson
- Tee Higgins
- Henry Ruggs (Covid-IR)
- Chase Claypool
- Denzel Mims
- KJ Hamler
- Jalen Reagor
- Michael Pittman Jr
- Gabriel Davis
- Laviska Shenault
- Lynn Bowden Jr
Jerry Jeudy
- 19 receiving yards – off five targets. The Bills dominated this one but even in point-chasing mode, the Broncos and Jeudy never looked like doing anything
- 50-percent catch rate – he still can’t get over this magical number and only had a 20-percent rate (one of five) in this game
- Championship Game – at Los Angeles Chargers
Outlook: If the Saturday night spotlight was the first time you got to watch Jeudy, you now know why I’ve been telling you not to hold him in redraft
CeeDee Lamb
- 85 yards – that’s his best production since week 5, giving us another flash of what could have been if Dak had still been on the field
- Return Touchdown – he also helped the Dallas DST with a 47 yard kick return touchdown at the end of the game
- Championship Game – Philadelphia
Outlook: He’s reminding you of his talent so you don’t forget him next year. You’re not playing him in your 2020 championship game though
Brandon Aiyuk
- 13 targets – His last five weeks have seen him get a 16 game pace of 198 targets. That’s insane volume and while much of it comes without Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, it’s a promising sign for his long term outlook
- Touchdown – he’s scored a touchdown in five of his last seven games. It’s hard to predict and rely on touchdowns but Aiyuk is making a case to say you should be
- Championship Game – at Arizona
Outlook: He’s doing exactly what you need from a waiver-wire pickup in his rookie season and may well have got you to your fantasy championship game, where you can roll him straight back out there. One thing’s for sure, he won’t be on waiver wires in 2021
Justin Jefferson
- 11 targets – he’s now over 100 targets for the season and still counting
- 104 yards – that’s the 6th time over 100 yards in 2020 and puts him on nearly 1,200 yards. He’s top 10 in receiving yards so far and looking like he’s cementing himself as the number one rookie receiver in a top receiver class
- Championship Game – at New Orleans
Outlook: He produces a down game every now and then but this is why you don’t sit him. New Orleans are a tough opponent but I’m not sure that matters for Jefferson anymore, you’re starting him
Tee Higgins
- 46-percent target share – don’t be fooled though, that’s only 6 targets and he caught 3 of them
- 31 yards – his lowest for four weeks
- Championship Game – at Houston
Outlook: He’s a deep shot for a touchdown against a dreadful Houston defense. But if you got to your championship playoff without him, keep doing that
Chase Claypool
- 65-percent of snaps – after a couple of weeks of James Washington establishing himself as the third option, Claypool was back up with his playing time and his targets
- 8 targets – he only caught 3 for 54 yards but he was back to being the deep shot and he’s always one blown coverage away from a big touchdown
- Championship Game – Indianapolis
Outlook: The upside is still there and there are worse options than to look for that big-play touchdown potential. He’s boom or bust though, I wouldn’t play him if you need a solid floor but I’d consider it if you’re a big underdog
Denzel Mims
- 4 targets – not an awe-inspiring number for Mims in a now fully-fit receiver room
- 18 yards – and that’s rough production that isn’t going to help anyone. The Rams aren’t the easiest defense in the league but the Jets did manage to move the ball, just not through Mims
- Championship Game – Cleveland
Outlook: Not this year. If you made your fantasy championship, it’s not because of Mims so don’t expect him to win it for you either
KJ Hamler
- 4 targets – I noted last week that his big game only came from 3 targets and that volume wasn’t reliable, well he only got 4 targets this week too
- 4 yards – he caught one of those targets for a mighty 4 yards
- Championship Game – at Los Angeles Chargers
Outlook: Hamler will continue to be a cheap punt play in DFS that you hope catches a touchdown. Nothing more than that
Jalen Reagor
- 8 targets – that’s a career high so far for Reagor, he’s clearly going to be a part of the gameplan moving forward
- 49 yards – despite those extra targets, he only turned it in to 49 yards through the air and negative 10 on the ground
- Championship Game – at Dallas
Outlook: The increased targets are good but that’s about the best you can say. You don’t need to be rostering him in redraft leagues
Michael Pittman Jr
- 3 targets – he hasn’t topped five targets in the last three games and despite a good matchup against Houston, there wasn’t much to see for Pittman
- 19 yards – his lowest output since week 8 as it was Pascal who got the redzone looks from Rivers
- Championship Game – at Pittsburgh
Outlook: Still nothing going for Pittman, and no need to try and be clever by playing him at Pittsburgh in week 16
Gabriel Davis
- 93-percent of snaps – he’s absolutely a key piece of this Buffalo offense when John Brown is out, and he got five targets in this one
- No Touchdown – he’s a low volume, touchdown or bust player and has been for a while. Unfortunately he didn’t get the touchdown in this one
- Championship Game – at New England
Outlook: If John Brown returns from IR in week 16 then you can’t play Davis. If Brown is out, Davis could be a deep shot if you’re struggling and just hoping for a touchdown
Laviska Shenault
- 74-percent of snaps – that’s about his range when he’s healthy, in a crowded (albeit not special) receiver room
- 6 targets – he gets his fair share of targets and a couple of rush attempts but 44 total yards isn’t going to help you
- Championship Game – Chicago
Outlook: You’re not playing him against Chicago. Good news though, he might be about to win the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes
Lynn Bowden Jr
- 90-percent of snaps – he’s come a long way since being cut by the Raiders and thanks to a depleted wide receiver corps in Miami, he’s getting his shot
- 7 targets – add that to his 9 targets from last week and he was a good part of the Miami gameplan. Only 46 total yards and no scores to show for it though I’m afraid
- Championship Game – at Las Vegas
Outlook: I’d expect Miami to bring back some of its weapons in week 16 so Bowden is a cheap DFS shot only
Injury Issues
- Joe Burrow (QB)
- Antonio Gibson (RB)
- La’Mical Perine (RB)
Backup – not this year without an injury
- Jordan Love (QB) – inactive
- Jacob Eason (QB) – inactive
- James Morgan (QB) – inactive
- Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB) – 10 snaps, 2 carries for 4 yards, 1 target for 0 catches
- Anthony McFarland Jr (RB) – 1 carry for 5 yards, 1 target for 1 catch and 9 yards
- DeeJay Dallas (RB) – 8 special teams snaps only, now injured for the rest of the season
- AJ Dillon (RB) – 5 snaps, 1 carry for 18 yards
- Darrynton Evans (RB) – 13 snaps, 8 carries for 30 yards, 2 targets for 2 catches, 27 yards and a touchdown
- Devin Duvernay (WR) – 4 snaps, 0 targets
- Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR) – Injured Reserve
- Quintez Cephus (WR) – 29 snaps, 3 targets for 1 catch and 36 yards
- Van Jefferson (WR) – 14 snaps, 1 target for 0 catches
- Bryan Edwards (WR) – 24 snaps, 0 targets
Special Tight End Category
- Devin Asiasi – 27 snaps, 0 targets. Not fantasy relevant
- Cole Kmet – 64 snaps (that’s 100-percent of offensive snaps!), 2 targets for 2 catches and 12 yards. He’s still not fantasy relevant just yet but keep him on your radar for next season
- Josiah Deguara – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
- Dalton Keene – 29 snaps, 2 targets for 1 catch and 2 yards. Not fantasy relevant
- Adam Trautman – 21 snaps, 0 targets. Not fantasy relevant
- Harrison Bryant – 30 snaps, 2 targets for 2 catches and 19 yards. Not fantasy relevant
- Albert Okwuegbunam – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
- Colby Parkinson – 8 snaps, 0 targets. Not fantasy relevant
- Brycen Hopkins – 14 special teams snaps only. Not fantasy relevant
Champ or Chump?
As it’s the last hurrah for championship week, here’s who (from the ‘Starters’ category) can be a Champ, who’s a Chump, and who you need to Check for someone better
Champ
Quarterback – Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts
Running Back – Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, JK Dobbins
Wide Receiver – Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk
Tight End – N/A
Chump
Quarterback – N/A
Running Back – Joshua Kelley
Wide Receiver – Henry Ruggs, CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, Jalen Reagor, Michael Pittman Jr, Laviska Shenault, Denzel Mims, Gabriel Davis
Tight End – Everyone
Check for someone better (can play if you HAVE to)
Quarterback – Tua Tagovailoa,
Running Back – Zack Moss
Wide Receiver – Tee Higgins, , Chase Claypool
Tight End – N/A
Week 16
Good luck to all of you in your championship games – now go get those trophies!
