Why Cam Akers Will Breakout In 2021
The first round of fantasy drafts is littered with workhorse running backs every year. That’s no different in 2021. The top of draft boards don’t look much different this year than they did in 2020. Christian McCaffrey remains the consensus 1.01 despite a lost season where he spent more time in rehab than on the field. Some order of Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook, and Derrick Henry often come next, with a few Ezekiel Elliotts and Alvin Kamaras mixed in. But what if I told you there is a man out in L.A. that deserves your attention in this area of the first round? A guy that has an ADP at the back of round one on Underdog and is into the second round on Sleeper.
His name? Cam Akers.
Akers was the lead back in Week 1 after the Rams drafted him in the second round. But a rib injury knocked him out of Week 2 and really impeded his ability to regain that role until late in the season. But that’s when things began to take off for the rookie. In Weeks 13-17, Akers played over 64-percent of the snaps in each game. He averaged 21.5 carries and 109 yards from scrimmage over that span. In the team’s two playoff games, Akers compiled 221 rushing yards and 51 receiving yards with two touchdowns. Akers was used as an elite bellcow, taking 96-percent of the snaps in the divisional round playoff loss to the Packers. When we extrapolate his final six game averages (including playoffs) to a full 17-game season, it comes out to nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage.
2021 Outlook
Looking ahead to 2021, it’s easy to project Akers in a high-volume role based off what we saw at the end of last season. He has the size and skill set to be a three-down back with no real threat to his workhorse touches. Akers is superior to Darrell Henderson in every aspect. He had a decent four-week run when Akers was injured but was largely phased out of the offense with snap shares of 19.2%, 9.8%, 13.2%, and 43.1% in Weeks 13-16. So, while the 2019 third-rounder will get his touches, it won’t be much more than your typical breather back. Malcolm Brown, who had 101 carries and 33 targets in 2020, is now a Dolphin, leaving a litany of no-names competing for the RB3 job.
It’s reasonable to assume the Rams will involve Akers more in the passing game, given what he did in that area in college. At Florida State, Akers caught 53 passes over his final two seasons and had a 12.3-percent College Target Share (PlayerProfiler). Even Sean McVay described him as an “every down back” and a “special player” this offseason. And we know McVay has no problem feeding a guy of Akers’ caliber. He did that with Todd Gurley, who finished as a top-3 fantasy scorer in McVay’s first two seasons as head coach.
The Rams have built the perfect environment for a running back like Akers to thrive. We saw a much improved offensive line from 2019 to 2020 and they’re returning four-of-five starters in 2021. They added DeSean Jackson in free agency and Tutu Atwell in the draft to bring back the deep-ball threat they’ve been missing since Brandin Cooks was traded after the 2019 season. Of course, we know they added Matthew Stafford in a shocking quarterback swap with the Lions. Stafford is a massive upgrade from Jared Goff, especially in decision making and arm talent. He will unlock elements of the McVay offense that we have yet to see. The offense will be far more explosive and efficient than 2020, with potential to be the highest-scoring unit in the league.
How High Can He Fly?
What does that mean for Akers? A better—more efficient—offense means moving the chains, which results in longer possessions, more plays, more red zone trips, and more points. That’s the type of offense that produces RB1 overall seasons. Furthermore, the defense projects to be one of the best in the NFL so the offense will be running the football to protect leads in the fourth quarter of games. Akers has a real shot at 325 touches in one of the best offenses in the league. It shouldn’t be a hot take to say he is one of only a few backs who can finish the year as the overall RB1.
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