Player Value

Breakout Quarterbacks For 2023 Fantasy Football

June 19, 2023

The Next Breakout Quarterback Will Be…?

There seems to be a few quarterbacks that perform well above preseason expectations every season. In 2022, Justin Fields broke into the top 10 and is now recognized as one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league. Veteran Geno Smith shocked the collective fantasy world and finished as the QB5 overall. Finally, Giants quarterback Daniel Jones leveled up with head coach Brian Daboll calling the shots, minimizing his turnovers, and using his legs to score plenty of fantasy points.

For the purposes of this article, I am quantifying a “breakout” as a player who has the chance to jump up one or several tiers in fantasy football this season. Age nor experience in the league matter, as any veteran or first-time starter could take that all-important step forward and help fantasy managers win their leagues. Let’s break down four potential breakout fantasy quarterback of the year candidates!

Justin Fields

Being drafted as the QB6 overall in the fourth round at the moment, according to FantasyPros average draft position, Justin Fields has the chance to take an even bigger step forward than he did in 2022. Rushing quarterbacks have always been the cheat code for fantasy, and the 24-year-old proved that he was able to provide top-five production with little to no help in the passing game.

Fields finished with 379 more rushing yards than 2nd place finisher Jalen Hurts, who finished with more carries than the Bears quarterback last season. He needed to run at a high rate with how bad the Chicago offense was. The team played to his strengths, and it worked out in a big way for fantasy purposes.

The Bears made plenty of additions to support the third-year quarterback in 2023. They acquired former Carolina Panthers wide receiver D.J. Moore in a blockbuster trade that saw Carolina move into the top of this past April’s NFL Draft. Former Pittsburgh Steeler Chase Claypool was acquired before the trade deadline last year. Darnell Mooney should be back in time from his broken fibula. Finally, former Green Bay Packer Robert Tonyan joins the tight end room to compliment Cole Kmet.

This offense is more equipped now than ever for Field to take a step forward as a passer. If the Ohio State alum can improve his passing numbers even a modest amount and rack up 140-plus carries, then there is a real chance he enters the “top-tier” conversation with the likes of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow.

Tua Tagovailoa

While the multiple concussions Tua Tagovailoa suffered in 2022 made the most headlines, it put how well he actually played when healthy in the shadows. The Alabama alum had plenty of fantasy success when healthy, including five top-12 fantasy finishes and the most yards per attempt and completion in the league.

The addition of wide receiver Tyreek Hill unlocked Tagovailoa’s deep passing ability. Even with four games missed and three that he was knocked out of early, the 25-year-old finished 9th in points per game. He made it through most of Week 16 before getting taken out but threw just very little in weeks three and four. Take those games away from his points per game score, and Tagovailoa averaged 20.4 points per game, good for the sixth-most in the league.

The Alabama alum’s per-game passing stats were top-tier, with the standout being a No. 1 overall finish in air yards per game. The Miami offense under Mike McDaniel is tailored perfectly to Tagovailoa’s strengths in accuracy and downfield ball movement. It made for successful fantasy production when healthy.

Health is the only thing holding Tagovailoa back from becoming a clear-cut top-12 fantasy quarterback with weekly top-five upside. The Dolphins’ offense remained intact this offseason with the addition of rookie Devon Achane to the backfield. Achane is a solid pass catcher and speedster, and former Arizona Cardinal Chosen Anderson also joins the crew to help stretch the field. If the Dolphins starting quarterback can stay healthy, he should easily finish in the top 12 in 2023.

Aaron Rodgers

Surprised to see future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers on this list? You shouldn’t be. Last season was the last one for Rodgers in a Green Bay Packers uniform, and it was one to forget for fantasy purposes. While he finished as the QB13 overall, that was due to playing a full season rather than being competent for fantasy purposes.

The veteran was only a usable fantasy asset 11.8 percent of the time in 2022. With a bust rate of nearly 50 percent, it is safe to say Rodgers fell well below expectations. On a points-per-game basis, Marcus Mariota, Russell Wilson, and Jimmy Garoppolo were more reliable. It was one of the worst seasons of the former back-to-back MVP’s career, but things are looking up in 2023.

While Rodgers’ receiver corps was young and unproven last season, he inherits an incredible one in New York. Second-year receiver Garrett Wilson is a true No. 1 option for Rodgers compared to last season. Allen Lazard, the No. 1 for Green Bay in 2022, follows Rodgers and slots in as the WR2. Lastly, Corey Davis and Mecole Hardman round out the wide receiver corps as the third and fourth options. Tight end Tyler Conklin is an upgrade over Robert Tonyan, and running backs Breece Hall and Michael Carter give Rodgers a great pass-catching tandem out of the backfield.

The 39-year-old is in a prime bounce-back spot with all of the talent surrounding him in his new home of New York. With a true WR1 and a plethora of other complimentary pieces to target, Rodgers can easily finish as a top 12 QB and could be extremely consistent if his touchdown rate shoots up closer to his 2020 and 2021 average of 8.1 percent.

More: Garrett Wilson 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

Jordan Love

The Aaron Rodgers replacement and fourth-year quarterback Jordan Love is going to be one of the most-watched quarterbacks in the league this season. However, after sitting behind the future Hall of Famer for the past three years, the potential for Love to absolutely shock the fantasy world is high.

There are no real statistics to look back on for the 24-year-old. Love has seen game action on just 10 occasions and has started just one time. Most of his game time has come in late in games that the Packers were already well in control of or completely out of.

The unknown potential of Love is what makes him so intriguing for fantasy purposes. While the receiving corps is young in Green Bay, Christian Watson proved to be a force and have a nose for the end zone when healthy last season, giving Love a great top target to lean on. Romeo Doubs will look to soak up short-yardage targets, and rookie Jayden Reed has the potential to be a great No. 2 option on the outside.

Running back Aaron Jones should soak up plenty of targets as well, rounding out a decent receiving corps for Love in his first year as a starter. With many dismissing the young quarterback in fantasy drafts, it would not be a shock to see Love finish as a top-15 QB by the season’s end with plenty of streaming potential. If Rodgers can post one of his worst seasons of all time and finish 13th overall, then Love can find a way to finish top 15.

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