Brandon Aiyuk 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Brandon Aiyuk 2023 Fantasy Football Preview
Brandon Aiyuk went into year three and continued to build in every statistical category. The 25-year-old set career highs in receptions, targets, yards, and touchdowns, all while dealing with a rotation of quarterbacks due to injury. At times, Aiyuk looked like the top “wide receiver,” even over the likes of Deebo Samuel. While the question of who will start under center for the 49ers remains up in the air, the status of Aiyuk continuing to dominate for fantasy purposes remains intact. With his contract set to expire at the end of next season, the Arizona State alum will look to continue to improve in hopes of a big payday. Can he finish as a top 20 option once again in 2023? Let’s dive into the young receiver’s 2022 season and find out!
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All stats are based on Half-PPR scoring formats, and rankings are based on the top 130 scoring fantasy Wide Receivers.
2022 Fantasy Stats
Aiyuk posted the highest fantasy finish of his career, rounding out the top 15 and beating out Samuel by 23 spots. Now, Samuel missed four games, but Aiyuk even averaged more points per game than Samuel. With an average draft position of 8.12 as the WR38 off the board, you would be hard-pressed to find a better value at wide receiver last season. While he finished nearly half of his weeks outside the top 36, having six of his games rank inside the top 24 is much more than you expected from him when drafting him.
2022 Receiving Stats
The 25-year-old cleared 100 targets for the first time in his career. He also continued to increase his catch percentage, raising it by nearly two percent compared to 2021. Aiyuk led the 49ers in receptions, targets, and receiving yards while finishing three shy of George Kittle in touchdowns. When Brock Purdy was under center, Aiyuk was targeted 40 times and caught two touchdowns. Samuel saw 18 targets as he played in only three of those six games. They were nearly identical, showing that Aiyuk took another step closer to being the top target in the 49ers’ offense.
2022 Advanced Receiving Stats
Running a route on nearly 90 percent of his snaps, Aiyuk was the primary receiver for the 49ers last year. Samuel finished with a routes run percentage of 80.6. The fourth-year receiver did have a bit of a drop problem, but it did not cost him snaps this time around. With three quarterbacks mixing into the starting role under center, it is easy to see why his average depth of target was so low. This is a category we can expect improvement from in 2023 if Brock Purdy suits up to open the season.
2022 Rushing, Turnover, and Totals Stats
Samuel took the grand majority of carries of the San Francisco receiving corps, so there is not much to see here stat-wise for Aiyuk. Finishing with over 1,000 yards for the first time in his career, Aiyuk put up more yardage than the likes of Michael Pittman, D.J. Moore, Diontae Johnson, and Mike Williams.
2022 Red Zone Stats
The red zone is where Aiyuk shined brightest last season. Ranking tied for ninth overall in receptions, Aiyuk scored the third most touchdowns inside the 20s. Only Stefon Diggs and Christian Kirk scored more touchdowns in scoring range. There is no reason to worry about his production dropping heading into 2023, as the offense will remain relatively the same.
2022 Per Game Stats
Players who actually finish the season without missing a game always have lower stats in the per-game categories. Seeing an average of nearly seven targets in a run-first offense flanked by Samuel and George Kittle is fairly impressive. Few players finished with a higher touchdown percentage chance than the 25-year-old either. Quarterback play had a role in Aiyuk not reaching his full potential in 2022. However, with Purdy likely to start in most games this season, their is hope that consistent play will reign supreme for the 49ers in 2023.
2022 Percentage Stats (Great, Good, Flex, and Bust Games)
With over 50 percent of Aiyuk games ranking inside the top 36, the fourth-year receiver was a solid fantasy asset and an absolute draft steal for those who snagged him late. His great game percentage of 11.8% was higher than Terry McLaurin, who finished right ahead of Aiyuk in the overall rankings, and his bust percentage of 35.3% was lower than Amari Cooper and Christian Kirk, both of which were top 12 receivers.
Overall, 2022 was a step in the right direction for Aiyuk and a good sign of things to come in the future. While no one will ever view him as the ‘top wideout’ in San Francisco, he will see a higher target share than plenty of top 24 options and has a nose for the end zone.
2023 Outlook
With the San Francisco offense remaining intact heading into the 2023 season, there is plenty of reasons to be in on drafting Aiyuk. For starters, the quarterback room should be much more stable. While there are questions surrounding Purdy and his potential to start in Week One, it is fairly clear that the second-year quarterback will be the starter once healthy. Without the carousel constantly turning under center, the potential for a more steady fantasy output for Aiyuk rises. Pairing with Samuel and Kittle means Aiyuk will never see top coverage, and he already proved he could dominate as the No. 2 receiver for fantasy purposes.
Expecting a top-15 finish again may be a tough pill to swallow, especially with a slew of talented receivers missing time in 2022. However, there is no reason to view Aiyuk as anything less than a WR2 with the potential to finish inside the top 15 if he can still find the end zone at a high rate. Currently being drafted as the WR30 overall in the seventh round, according to FantasyPros ADP, Aiyuk is going as a steal compared to where he should finish in 2023.
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My Thoughts
Aiyuk is one of the players I immediately regretted not having more shares of once the season started last year. I will not make that same mistake again. After a top-15 finish in a season where there were plenty of quarterbacks swapping out under center, I am all in on the draft cost for the 25-year-old. Sure, I do not believe a top-15 finish is repeatable if the slew of notable names that finished behind him last season actually stay healthy. However, I am all in on him finishing around the top 20 range and being a WR2 that you can get at a WR3 price.
Follow me on Twitter @TripleFTP! Also, check out our 2023 Projections Kit, the easiest way to build out your in-depth rankings to be best prepared for your upcoming drafts! Use my promo code “Ryan” at checkout to get $2 off your purchase.
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