Bowl Mania: Independence Bowl

Independence Bowl

When: Saturday, December 16th @ 9:15 PM ET

Where: Shreveport, Louisiana

Who: California (6-6) vs. Texas Tech (6-6)

Spread & Total: Texas Tech -3.5; O/U 58.5

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Tale of the Take: California Golden Bears

Like most of the mid tier Pac-12 teams, Cal struggled in the heart of their schedule. They went 4-5 in conference play, losing all five in a six game span against bowl eligible teams. But the important point for Cal was they won the games that mattered, beating the bottom teams of the conference. Cal was 1-6 against bowl eligible teams.

Offensively, the Golden Bears do their damage on the ground. Star running back Jaydn Ott handled 51.2% of the team’s offensive carries. Jeremiah Hunter is the primary target in the passing game, but there is a trio of receivers that provide a second option.

Defensively, Cal gets burned through the air. The Golden Bears see the 3rd most attempts per game (36.8), and allow 7.7 YPA. 27 passing touchdowns allowed ranks tied for 123rd of 133 FBS teams. Cal is better on the ground, where they allow just 3.8 YPC. The 18 fumble recoveries is the 2nd most in FBS.

Opt Outs: N/A

Injuries:

LB Jackson Sirmon

47 tackles (27 solo), 6th most on the team. Forced and recovered one fumble

RB Jaivian Thomas

Out since Week 10; returned to practice on December 12th.

Transfer Portal Departures:

QB Ben Finley

Split reps with Sam Jackson as quarterback; 94 attempts this year

QB Sam Jackson V

Split reps with Finley; 96 attempts this year

LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr

Team leader with 87 tackles (47 solo). One sack, six pass breakups, one interception; forced and recovered one fumble this year

CB Jeremiah Earby

Six pass breakups tied for second most on the team; one interception

OT Everett Johnson

OT Brayden Rohme

IOL Seth Williams

LB Blake Antzoulatos

CB Tyson McWilliams

Players to Know:

#1 RB Jaydn Ott

2023 All-Pac-12 First Team Offense. 13th nationally with 1,260 rushing yards. 11 rushing touchdowns this year. 399 carries, 2,157 rushing yards (5.4 YPC), 19 rushing touchdowns; 67 receptions, 462 receiving yards, and five touchdowns in his two years at Cal

#27 LB Cade Uluave

2023 Pac-12 Freshman Defensive Player of the Year. 4th on the team with 59 tackles (30 solo); 2.5 sacks. Three pass breakups, two interceptions. Two forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries (one for touchdown)

 

Preview: Bowl Mania: New Mexico Bowl

Tale of the Tape: Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech was a preseason dark-horse contender for the Big 12 Championship game. But those dreams came to a screeching halt in the first month of the season. While only playing one conference game, Texas Tech lost their first three games against FBS opponents. It was made clear early this team was not at the same level with the top competition in the conference. The Red Raiders still managed to win five of their next eight to secure a bowl berth, going through multiple changes at quarterback in the process. Texas Tech was 2-5 against bowl eligible teams.

Offensively, the Red Raiders rely heavily on the ground game. Senior running back Tahj Brooks is the catalyst of the offense, handling 64.7% of the team’s workload. They have an even mix of pass (52%) to run (48%) plays, despite Brooks’ usage. Sophomore quarterback Behren Morton will start at quarterback. The sophomore has completed 59.9% of his attempts, averages 6.2 YPA, and has thrown for 19 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

Defensively, teams try to beat the Red Raiders through the air. They saw 410 pass attempts this year, a top-25 mark nationally. However, their 6.6 YPA allowed ranks in the top-30 in FBS. Opposing quarterbacks complete just under 60% of their attempts. Texas Tech ranks in the middle of the pack on run defense, allowing 4.5 YPC after seeing 37.3 attempts per game.

Opt Outs: N/A

Injuries:

Transfer Portal Departures:

QB Tyler Shough

Starter at the beginning of the year; was knocked out for the year in Week 4

WR Myles Price

Leader in receptions (43) and touchdowns (five); 410 receiving yards is third on the team

WR Jerand Bradley

Second on team in receptions (36), yards (431) and touchdowns (four)

OT Monroe Mills

Starting left tackle. Played 100% of the team’s snaps

WR Loic Fouonji

WR JJ Sparkman

TE Jayden York

WR Tyler King

WR Nehemiah Martinez

TE Jordan Green

OT Landon Peterson

IOL Seth Martin

CB Nate Floyd

 

Player to Know:

#28 RB Tahj Brooks

All-Big 12 First Team Offense. 3rd nationally in rush attempts (268) and 4th in yards (1,443). 

#1 DB Dadrion Taylor-Demerson

All-Big 12 Second Team Defense. 3rd on the team with 66 tackles (49 solo). Six pass breakups, four interceptions (10 career interceptions)

#13 LB Ben Roberts

2023 Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year. Leads the team with 100 total tackles (53 solo). One interception, two forced fumbles.

Bowl Game Trends:

• Independence Bowl 2023: First Big 12 representative since 2011 (4-8)
• Independence Bowl 2023: First Pac-12 representative since 2013 (3-1)

Game Synopsis:

This is truly a toss up game between two 6-6 schools. Both teams rely heavily on a single back and have underclassmen at quarterback. Ultimately, I’ll take the Cal team that won three-straight games to get bowl eligible and have the better run defense. Their pass defense is a true concern, and Tech’s Morton could burn them if given the opportunity. But I’ll take Ott and the Golden Bears to win the 2023 Independence Bowl.

Bowl Mania Pick To Win: California

Bowl Mania Confidence: 2/43

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