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The Goodyear Cotton Bowl takes place Monday in Arlington, Texas at Jerry World. USC, who won the Pac 12 regular season, are making their first bowl game since 2019. Tulane is making their 4th bowl game in the last five years under Willie Fritz.
When: Monday, January 2nd @ 1:00 PM ET
Where: Arlington, Texas
Who: Tulane vs. USC
Spread & Total: USC -2.5; O/U 64
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Tale of the Take: Tulane Green Wave
Tulane was the best Group of Five team in 2022. Both of their losses came by one-score; they were 3-2 in one-score games this year. Tulane is a run-first team, with a pass/run split of 43.7%/56.3%, respectively. Their quarterback, Michael Pratt, offers mobility. He is the team’s 2nd leading rusher with 91 carries for 506 yards and 10 touchdowns. Pratt is completing 64.5% of his passes for 8.6 YPA, throwing 25 touchdowns (7.8%) and just 5 interceptions (1.6%). The Green Wave’s lead back, Tyjae Spears, has 42.6% of the team’s carries. He was named the AAC Offensive Player of the Year.
Tulane’s pass defense allows just 6.0 yards per attempt, the 9th-best rate in FBS. They have forced 11 interceptions and sacked opposing quarterbacks 26 times. Run defense has been the Green Wave’s weakness. Below average in rushing yards allowed per game, and surrender 3.9 YPC. Their 20 turnovers forced gives the Green Wave a +5 turnover margin, tied for the 31st best rate in the country.
Opt Outs: N/A
Injuries:
QB Justin Ibieta
RB Cameron Carroll
Transfer Portal Departures:
WR Dea Dea McDougle
Players to Know:
#22 RB Tyjae Spears
AAC Offensive Player of the Year. The junior has totaled 212 carries for 1,376 yards (6.5 YPC) and 15 touchdowns. Added 242 receiving yards off 21 receptions and 2 touchdowns through the air
#2 LB Dorian Williams
All-AAC First Team selection. 114 tackles, 5 sacks, 7 pass deflections, and 2 interceptions; all lead the team
Tale of the Tape: USC Trojans
The main question around USC is the status of Caleb Williams. If Caleb Williams cannot go (Ryan Kartje of the LA Times is reporting Williams will play as of January 1st), redshirt freshman Miller Moss will get the start. He has 27 career attempts the last two seasons. They will be without star receiver Jordan Addison, as he heals from an ankle injury to prepare for the NFL Draft. USC will still have their WR2-4 with Tahj Washington, Mario Williams and Brenden Rice. Travis Dye began the year as the starter, but suffered a season-ending knee injury in November. Austin Jones has drawn the start the last three games.
Defensively, the Trojans allow 6.0 yards per play this season. The 7.8 yards per attempt ranks an abysmal 108th of 131 teams. That is the 6th worse mark among bowl eligible teams. USC comes in at 106th in yards per carry at 4.7 yards. 25 rushing touchdowns allowed is tied for 110th. Yet, USC ranks 1st in turnover margin (+22). USC doesn’t turn the ball over, just 6 for the season.
Opt Outs: N/A
Injuries:
QB Caleb Williams
(Heisman Trophy winner. Over 4,000 passing yards, 9.1 YPA, 37 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions. Dealing with a hamstring injury; told the media he will play if physically able)
RB Travis Dye
(Led the team with 145 attempts and 884 rushing yards. Added 9 touchdowns. Suffered a knee injury in November and is out for the year)
WR Jordan Addison
(2021 Biletnikoff Award winner. 59 receptions, 875 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns all lead the team. Will be inactive in the bowl game due to an ankle injury)
WR Michael Jackson III
(Questionable with an undisclosed injury. 13 receptions, 205 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns this year)
G Andrew Vorhees & C Brett Neilon
(Two starting offensive lineman; both will be out)
EDGE Romello Height
(Suffered season ending shoulder injury in September)
Transfer Portal Departures:
DT Kobe Pepe
LB Julian Simon
LB Ralen Goforth
Player to Know:
#6 RB Austin Jones
Started last two games of the regular season after Travis Dye went down. 46 carries for 274 (6.0 YPC) and 2 touchdowns on the ground against UCLA and Notre Dame. Added 5 receptions for 73 yards
#49 DL Tuli Tuipulotu
Pac 12 Defensive Player of the Year. 12.5 sacks was the most in the country. 21 of 44 tackles were tackles for loss
Bowl Game Trends:
- Willie Fritz: 3-1 in bowl games; Lincoln Riley: 1-3 in bowl games
- Per Chris Fallica, since 2016, Pac 12 favorites are 5-15-1 ATS and 11-10 SU
- Since 2014, Group of Five teams are 3-5 in New Year Six bowls against Power Five schools, the last win coming in 2017
- In non-College Football Playoff games, the Pac 12 is 3-5 in New Year Six bowls
- The favorite has won and covered six of the last eight
Game Synopsis:
The news that Caleb Williams will play is massive for USC. Similar to the announcement that Bryce Young was playing for Alabama, I’m assuming Williams will play the full game. Tulane has been an underdog just once this season; they were 13.5-point underdogs to Kansas State and won outright 17-10. Both run defenses are vulnerable, but that plays better to Tulane’s offense. Tulane should be able to utilize a poor USC defense. But USC has weapons on the offensive side to run a track meet. Caleb Williams is mobile, and paired with Austin Jones, can cause issues for Tulane’s run defense. USC knocks off Tulane to win the Cotton Bowl.
Bowl Mania Pick To Win: USC
Bowl Mania Confidence: 22/43
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