Bowl Mania: Famous Toastery Bowl

2023 Famous Toastery Bowl

When: Monday, December 18th @ 2:30 PM ET

Where: Charlotte, North Carolina

Who: Western Kentucky (7-5) vs. Old Dominion (6-6)

Spread & Total: Old Dominion -5; O/U 51.5

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Tale of the Take: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Western Kentucky found themselves in the middle of the pack of a boosted Conference USA. The additions of Liberty, New Mexico State, and Jacksonville State improved the conference’s outlook, which did not help the Hilltoppers. Those three teams handed Western Kentucky their lone three losses, getting outscored 100-75. Western outscored opponents in their five conference wins 156-102. The Hilltoppers were 1-5 against bowl eligible teams this season.

Offensively, the Hilltoppers rely heavily on the passing game. Starter Austin Reed averaged 39.2 attempts per game, tied for the 4th most in the country. The Hilltoppers average 2.75 passing touchdowns per game, the 4th most in the country. No rusher has over 100 carries on the season; Elijah Young leads the team with 96 carries, 460 yards, and three touchdowns. The 12 rushing touchdowns is tied for the 3rd-fewest among bowl eligible teams.

Defensively, there are some highlights to what appears to be a bad defense on paper. Western Kentucky holds opposing quarterbacks to a 58.3% completion rate and allow just 7 YPA. Their 14 interceptions is a top-15 mark in FBS. Teams do tend to try and run on the Hilltoppers. Their 479 rush attempts (39.9/game) is the 13th most in the country. They allow 4.8 yards per carry, but have forced 13 fumbles, tied for the 16th-most in the country.

Opt Outs:

QB Austin Reed

As of Saturday afternoon, it is reported Reed is expected to sit out of the bowl game. Entered the transfer portal last offseason, before withdrawing and playing in Western Kentucky’s bowl game. 

Injuries:

LB Jackson Sirmon

47 tackles (27 solo), 6th most on the team. Forced and recovered one fumble

RB Jaivian Thomas

Out since Week 10; returned to practice on December 12th.

Transfer Portal Departures:

OG Quantavious Leslie

Starting LG

C Vincent Murphy

Starting C

OT Wes Dorsey

Starting RT

LB Desmyn Baker

4th on team with 42 tackles (22 solo). Recorded one sack, interception, and forced fumble

DB Upton Stout

Led the team with eight pass breakups. Returned an interception and fumble for touchdown

S Talique Allen

Led the team with 50 tackles (32 solo). Recorded three pass breakups, one interception and forced fumble

QB Caden Veltkamp

IOL Mason Williams

CB Abdul-Lateef Audu

CB Josh Shodipo

DB Amaari Smith

DB TJ Springer

S Kendrick Simpson

S Manny Moss

K Nolan McCord

Players to Know:

#12 QB Turner Helton

Expected to get the start with Reed opting out of the bowl. Five career attempts for the freshman

#11 WR Malachi Corley

2023 All-Conference USA First Team Offense. Led the team with 75 receptions, 958 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Was top-5 nationally in receptions (101) and receiving yards (1,293) in 2022. There have been conflicting reports, but appears he will play in the bowl game

#27 DB Kendrick Simpkins

2023 All-Conference USA Second Team Defense. 6.5 sacks and four forced fumbles led the team. 48 total tackles (32 solo) was 2nd on the team

Preview: Bowl Mania: Independence Bowl

Tale of the Tape: Old Dominion Monarchs

One of the 12 Sun Belt teams that became bowl eligible in 2023, the Monarchs likely surprised many with six wins after a rigorous schedule. Going 1-2 in non-conference play thanks to a thrilling 10-9 over Texas A&M-Commerce, it did not look promising for Old Dominion early. But with their backs against the wall after a loss at Liberty, Old Dominion rattled off two wins to close the season over Georgia Southern and Georgia State. Old Dominion went 4-5 against bowl eligible teams this year and 6-4 in one-score games.

Offensively, the Monarchs struggle protecting their quarterback. Old Dominion allowed 61 sacks in their 12-game season, the most nationally. They complete just 56.3% of their pass attempts and average 7.1 YPA. Old Dominion has three players between 70 and 110 rush attempts this year; there is no true workhorse back in this offense. The Monarchs 31 total offensive touchdowns is tied for the 5th lowest mark among bowl eligible teams.

Defensively, Old Dominion fails to pressure the quarterback like their opponents. The Monarchs have just 15 sacks this year, tied for 128th of 133 FBS programs. Opposing quarterbacks average 64% completion rate and 7.3 YPA. Teams try to run on Old Dominion, as they saw 41.2 rush attempts per game. This is the 6th most nationally.

Opt Outs: N/A

Injuries:

LB Jason Henderson

Nation’s leading tackler (167; 51 solo). Led the country in tackles in back-to-back seasons (179 in 2022). 4.5 sacks also led the team. 

Transfer Portal Departures:

WR Javon Harvey

2nd in receptions (29), 3rd in receiving yards (391), and tied for team lead with four touchdowns.

S Terry Jones

104 tackles is 3rd on the team. Forced four pass breakups and one fumble; also recovered a fumble

WR Jordan Bly

WR Marquez Bell

TE Curtis Nixon

WR Isiah Smith

WR Ethan Presutty

OT Chris Chernak

IOL Mason Howard

DE Gideon Bedada

DT Trenton Kintigh

DL Devin Brandt-Epps

LB Malcolm Britt

P Ethan Duane

 

Player to Know:

#15 LB Wayne Matthew III

All-Sun Belt Third Team Defense. Tied for 16th in the country for most tackles (121; 35 solo). Recorded 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and two pass breakups

Bowl Game Trends:

• 2023 Famous Toastery Bowl is the inaugural bowl game
• Tyson Helton (WKU): 3-1 in bowl games
• Old Dominion: 1-1 in bowl games
• Old Dominion: bowl win would secure a 7-win season, most since 2016

Game Synopsis:

This game is filled with absent players, as both teams combine for 30 opt outs, transfers, or injuries. Western Kentucky is without a starting quarterback, three starting lineman, and potentially their best receiver. Meanwhile, Old Dominion is without a former All-American in Henderson. Old Dominion does nothing truly spectacular, but they have been on the right side of the scoreboard in close games this year and play in the better conference. This is my least confident pick, but I’m rolling with the Monarchs to win the 2023 Famous Toastery Bowl.

Bowl Mania Pick To Win: Old Dominion

Bowl Mania Confidence: 1/43

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