Bowl Mania: Camellia Bowl

2023 Camellia Bowl

When: Saturday, December 23rd @ 12:00 PM ET

Where: Montgomery, Alabama

Who: Northern Illinois (6-6) vs. Arkansas State (6-6)

Spread & Total: Arkansas State -3; O/U 54.5

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Tale of the Take: Northern Illinois Huskies

After a big opening win at Boston College in overtime, things looked gloomy for the Huskies. They lost four straight, including their conference opener at Toledo. The Huskies had to go 5-2 to close if they wanted to make a bowl. They won three straight, outscoring Akron, Ohio, and Eastern Michigan 98-40. Back-to-back losses to start midweek MAC-tion put their bowl hopes on life support. But the Huskies closed the year with back-to-back wins against Western Michigan and at Kent State. The Huskies went 3-1 against bowl eligible teams this year and 2-5 in one possession games ahead of the 2023 Camellia Bowl.

Offensively, the offense moved via the ground game. The Huskies averaged 35.4 rush attempts per game. Their 5.0 YPC ranked 20th in the country. The Huskies averaged just 28 pass attempts per game, completing just 57.1% of their throws for 6.7 YPA on average. Northern Illinois did a sound job at protecting the ball, throwing just seven interceptions all year (2.1% interception rate).

Defensively, Northern Illinois was air tight in the passing game. They saw just 26.9 pass attempts per game, the 14th-fewest in the country. Opposing quarterbacks averaged just 57% completion rate (top-20 nationally) and 6.1 YPA (9th nationally). 11 passing touchdowns is the 7th-fewest in FBS. Teams pressed their luck on the ground, averaging 36.1 carries per game. The Huskies allowed 4.3 YPC while forcing just six fumbles, tied for 110th nationally.

Opt Outs: N/A

Injuries:

WR Kacper Rutkiewicz

Has not played since October 7th at Akron; 2nd on the team with 21 receptions, 319 yards, and two touchdowns

WR Davis Patterson

Has not played since November 7th; 4th on the team with 16 receptions and 197 yards

Transfer Portal Departures:

C Pete Nygra

Starting center

EDGE George Gumbs

3.5 sacks is tied for the 2nd most on the team; forced two fumbles

WR Trey Urwiler

TE Bryce Harrison

DB Louis Frye

S Devin Lafayette

S Phillip Baynes Jr.

Players to Know:

#1 RB Antario Brown

2023 All-MAC First Team Offense. Led the team with 187 carries, 1,164 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. Has averaged at least 6 YPC in each of his three seasons

#1 DT James Ester

2023 All-MAC Second Team Defense. Team lead with four sacks (nine for his career); recovered one fumble

Preview: Bowl Mania: Birmingham Bowl

Tale of the Tape: Arkansas State Red Wolves

After a horrendous 73-0 loss to Oklahoma, Arkansas State managed to find themselves in a bowl game in a tough Sun Belt. After a 0-2 start, Arkansas State won three state including their conference opener against Southern Mississippi. Losses to four eventual bowl eligible teams filled up conference play, but the Red Wolves handled business against the lower level Sun Belt competition. The Red Wolves went 2-6 against bowl eligible teams, and 1-1 in one possession games.

Offensively, a switch at quarterback propelled the Red Wolves’ offense. Sun Belt Freshman of the Year Jaylen Raynor came in the game against Stony Brook in week 3 and never looked back. The Red Wolves averaged 11.3 PPG in the three starts before Raynor was named the starter; they averaged 33.2 PPG over the next nine games.

Defensively, Arkansas State is the worst defense among bowl eligible teams. Only six other bowl eligible teams allow more passing yards per game than the Red Wolves. They allow 7.8 YPA, and their six interceptions is tied for the 2nd-fewest among bowl eligible teams. On the ground, teams ran the ball 38.6 times on average. They allow 4.8 YPC; only six other teams were worse this year. They forced just 14 turnovers all year.

Opt Outs: N/A

Injuries:

TE Emmanuel Stevenson

Out for the year after an injury at Louisiana Monroe; recorded 18 receptions for 129 yards and two touchdowns

Transfer Portal Departures:

LB Javante Mackey

2nd on the team with 84 total tackles (52 solo); recorded two sacks and one pass breakup. Recovered a fumble and returned for a touchdown

QB Christian Hunt

RB Mike Sharpe II

DL Ashtin Rustemeyer

CB Taylon Doss

 

Player to Know:

#1 QB Jaylen Raynor

2023 Sun Belt Freshman of the Year. Completed 58.8% of his attempts while throwing for 9 YPA. Threw 15 touchdowns to six interceptions

#92 DE Thurman Geathers

2023 All-Sun Belt Third Team Defense

Bowl Game Trends:

• Arkansas State head coach Butch Jones is 4-2 in bowl games (4-0 in L4)
• Northern Illinois has lost their L7 bowl games; 4-10 all time.

Game Synopsis:

The first bowl game in a few days where we don’t have a laundry list of transfer portal entrants or opt outs. Arkansas State has a terrible defense with a negative point differential (-3.4). While they played a tougher schedule, they did not fair well against bowl teams compared to Northern Illinois. The Huskies have a veteran presence under center with Rocky Lombardi, albeit it has not faired well in bowl games yet. But the Huskies defense is where the real advantage is; they should have the pass defense that can slow down and frustrate freshman Raynor. I like the Huskies of Northern Illinois to pull the upset and win the 2023 Camellia Bowl.

Bowl Mania Pick To Win: Northern Illinois

Bowl Mania Confidence: 15/43

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