Bowl Mania: Birmingham Bowl

2023 Birmingham Bowl

When: Saturday, December 23rd @ 12:00 PM ET

Where: Birmingham, Alabama

Who: Duke (7-5) vs. Troy (11-2)

Spread & Total: Troy -7; O/U 44.5

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Tale of the Take: Duke Blue Devils

After 9-4 and a bowl win, Duke opened 2023 with a 28-7 blowout win of then 9th-ranked Clemson. Duke rattled off three more wins to become 17th ranked before a matchup against Notre Dame. A last minute touchdown sealed the game for the Irish, but that was not the most significant loss for the Blue Devils. Leonard was banged up and would not be the same the rest of the season. He tried to come back in two significant road games at Florida State and Louisville, but it was apparent he was not healthy. After a 5-1 start, the Blue Devils finished 2-4 to close the season. They went 3-4 against bowl eligible teams and 1-3 in one possession games.

Duke’s Mike Elko accepted the Texas A&M head coach opening this offseason. He will be replaced next year by Penn State’s defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, the former Miami Hurricanes head coach. Trooper Taylor will be the interim head coach for the 2023 Birmingham Bowl.

Offensively, this Duke team will look significantly different than their regular season team. Starting quarterback Riley Leonard and running back Jordan Waters are in the transfer portal. They accounted for 19 of the team’s 39 offensive touchdowns. Duke’s offense ranked 127 of 133 FBS teams in tempo, averaging just 62.5 offensive plays per game. Expect another slow tempo game for the Blue Devils with Leonard and Waters absent in the 2023 Birmingham Bowl.

Defensively, was one of the better defenses in the ACC. They saw 31.8 pass attempts per game, allowing just 6.6 YPA. That was the 26th-best mark in the country. The Blue Devils 11 passing touchdowns allowed is tied for 7th in the country. Opponents averaged 37.3 rush attempts per game and allowed 3.9 YPC.

Opt Outs:

OT Graham Barton

Declared for the NFL Draft

Injuries:

C Scott Elliott

Starting C; has not played since November 11th at North Carolina

CB Myles Jones

Questionable for the bowl game; last played against North Carolina State on October 14th. Team lead two interceptions; forced one fumble

S Terry Moore

Questionable for the bowl game; last played against North Carolina on November 11th. 43 tackles (21 solo); 2.5 sacks was 3rd most on the team

Transfer Portal Departures:

QB Riley Leonard

Only played in seven games this year; threw for 1,102 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. Added 51 carries for 394 yards (net sack yards) and four touchdowns. In 2022, completed 63.9% of his attempts for just under 3,000 yards, 20 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Added 108 carries for 797 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns.

RB Jordan Waters

2023 Second-Team All-ACC Offense. Team’s leading rusher (142 carries, 753 yards and 12 touchdowns).

EDGE RJ Oben

Led the team with five sacks; recorded at least four sacks in each of the past three years

DL Aeneas Peebles

2023 Honorable Mention All-ACC Defense. 2nd on the team with four sacks. Two pass breakups, forced and recovered a fumble

LB Dorian Mausi

3rd on the team with 61 total tackles. Two pass breakups and one interception

CB Brandon Johnson

5th on the team with 56 total tackles (29 solo). Tied for 3rd on the team with four pass breakups; recorded two sacks

S Jaylen Stinson

2nd on team with 82 tackles (37 solo) and five pass breakups. Recorded a sack, interception, and fumble recovery

WR Malik Bowens-Sims

CB Jaden Watkins

K Charlie Ham

Players to Know:

#12 QB Grayson Loftis

3rd string freshman who started the last three games. Completed 53.7% of his attempts for 6.1 YPA, eight touchdowns and three interceptions

#8 WR Jordan Moore

2023 Third-Team All-ACC Offense. Led the team with 59 receptions, 794 yards, and eight touchdowns. 

#7 CB Al Blades Jr.

2023 Honorable Mention All-ACC Defense. Team lead nine pass breakups

Preview: Bowl Mania: Gasparilla Bowl

Tale of the Tape: Troy Trojans

2023 was a mirror image of the 2022 Troy Trojans. Each season began 1-2, losing to a ranked Power Five school on the road (Ole Miss and Kansas State), beating a non-FBS program (Alabama A&M and Stephen F. Austin) and losing their conference opener (Appalachian State and James Madison). Like 2022, Troy rattled off nine straight on their way to winning the Sun Belt East. This resulted in back-to-back Sun Belt Championships game appearances. They won their bowl game last year; can they do the same this year?

Head coach Jon Sumrall took the opening at Tulane this offseason. Defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato is serving as the interim head coach for the bowl game.

Offensively, Troy brought back significant contributors under center and in the backfield. Gunnar Watson attempted 96.2% of Troy’s pass attempts. Watson threw just five interceptions, an impressive 1.2% interception rate. Kimani Vidal handled 64.1% of Troy’s rush attempts this season. Troy did lose 12 fumbles, tied for the 4th most in FBS.

Defensively, Troy smothered their opponents. Opponents averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game. Those opposing quarterbacks averaged 62.3% completion rate and 6.5 YPA. 13 pass touchdowns were tied for 14th-fewest in FBS. Troy sacked opponents 45 times this season, tied for the 3rd most this season and 5th-most on a per game basis (3.5). However, star Javon Solomon will not play in this bowl game as he prepares for the NFL Draft. He is the biggest loss for the Trojans, as they lose the nation’s leader in sacks with 16.

Opt Outs:

EDGE Javon Soloman

2023 All-Sun Belt First Team Defense. 16 sacks was most in the nation; recorded 11 sacks in 2021. Forced three fumbles, recovered two

Injuries: N/A

Transfer Portal Departures:

LB Jayden McDonald

Led the team with 75 total tackles (40 solo). Recorded one sack, pass breakup, fumble forced and recovery

 

Player to Know:

#18 QB Gunnar Watson

2023 All-Sun Belt Third Team Offense. Completed 61.3% of his attempts; averaged 8.3 YPA while throwing for 27 touchdowns and just five interceptions. 

#28 RB Kimani Vidal

2023 Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year. 2023 All-Sun Belt First Team Offense. 2nd in the nation in rush attempts (280) and rushing yards (1,582). Added 14 rushing touchdowns. 

#9 DL Richard Jibunor

2023 All-Sun Belt First Team Defense. 53 total tackles (29 solo). 2nd on the team with 9 sacks; recorded at least seven sacks in each of the last three years.

#2 DB Reddy Steward

2023 All-Sun Belt First Team Defense. Team lead eight pass breakups and four interceptions; returned one interception for a touchdown

Bowl Game Trends:

• Troy: won last five bowl games; 6-3 as a FBS program
• Duke: won last four bowl games
• 2023 Birmingham Bowl: Group of Five teams are 7-5 against Power Five schools in this bowl series

Game Synopsis:

The losses to the transfer portal and NFL Draft are significant for Duke. The blow was lessened when their RB2 Jaquez Moore withdrew his name from the transfer portal. He should see a heavy workload in this bowl game with Waters gone. But the main concern is the drop from Leonard to Loftis. Even with the four starts, this is a significant drop off.

Troy will be without a premier pass rusher in Solomon and key defender in McDonald, but this is still a strong defense. And Duke’s absent offensive pieces will help soften the blow. Watson is in his last game for Troy, and Vidal might be as well. I think they end their illustrious career with a bowl victory. Troy handles business and takes the 2023 Birmingham Bowl.

Bowl Mania Pick To Win: Troy

Bowl Mania Confidence: 31/43

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