Bowl Mania: Armed Forces Bowl

2023 Armed Forces Bowl

When: Saturday, December 23rd @ 3:30 PM ET

Where: Fort Worth, Texas

Who: Air Force (8-4) vs. James Madison (11-1)

Spread & Total: James Madison -2; O/U 40.5

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Tale of the Take: Air Force Falcons

Air Force had New Years Six bowl game aspirations to start the year. The Falcons started the year 8-0, outscoring opponents 269-107 thru October. Air Force found themselves ranked as high as 19th in the AP Poll. However, things took a turn when starting quarterback Zac Larrier was injured against Army. The Falcons lost their last four, getting outscored 62-108 and losing the opportunity to play for a Mountain West championship.

This is a typical military academy offense: triple option that rarely focuses on the pass. The Falcons ran the ball 656 times this year, the most in the country (54.7/game). The 33 rushing touchdowns is tied for the 7th most in the country. The Falcons average just 9.7 pass attempts per game and complete just 52% of their attempts. However, their 10.6 YPA trails only LSU for the highest in the country. They have as many passing touchdowns as interceptions.

Defensively, it was a tale of two seasons for the Falcons. On their eight-game winning streak, the Falcons allowed just 13.4 PPG; that more than doubled to 27 PPG the last four weeks. The Falcons allowed over 20 points per game just twice in their first eight; every team in the last four scored at least 20 against Air Force. Air Force saw just 26.4 pass attempts per game, the 9th fewest among bowl eligible teams. Opposing quarterbacks completed 61.8% of their attempts for 6.9 YPA, on average. Air Force also saw the 9th fewest run attempts per game at 30.8. They allowed just 3.1 YPC, a top-10 mark nationally.

Opt Outs: N/A

Injuries:

QB Zac Larrier

Left the game at Hawaii on November 11th; accounts for all six Air Force passing touchdowns. Second leading rusher on the team with 133 carries and 579 yards; added five touchdowns

WR Jared Roznos

Last played on October 4th against Army; leading receiver with 11 receptions, 332 yards and two touchdowns

WR Dane Kinamon

Last played on October 4th against Army; five receptions for 126 yards and two touchdowns

Transfer Portal Departures:

RB John Lee Eldridge

4th on the team in rush attempts (76), 3rd in rushing yards (521) and 2nd in rushing touchdowns.

TE Caleb Rillos

TE Aidan Behymer

OT Mason Carlan

LB Jacob Tafoya

 

Players to Know:

#7 S Trey Taylor

2023 All-Mountain West Football First Team Defense; 71 total tackles (39 solo) was 3rd on the team. Led the team with three interceptions, returning one for a touchdown. Added four pass breakups

#13 DL PJ Ramsey

2023 All-Mountain West Football First Team Defense; 7.5 sacks led the team.

#8 LB Bo Richter

2023 All-Mountain West Football First Team Defense; seven sacks was 2nd on the team to Ramsey

Preview: Bowl Mania: Camellia Bowl

Tale of the Tape: James Madison Dukes

In their second year at the FBS level, James Madison somehow topped an 8-3 inaugural season. The Dukes managed to start the year 10-0 and were one of the last unbeaten teams in FBS. With College Gameday coming and James Madison trying to get approval to become bowl eligible, the Dukes fell for the first time at home to Appalachian State in overtime. James Madison was ineligible to play in the Sun Belt title game, but was granted approval for their first bowl game.

Head coach Curt Cignetti accepted the head coaching vacancy at Indiana this offseason. He is taking both coordinators Mike Shanahan and Bryant Haines with him to Bloomington. Assistant head coach Damian Wroblewski will serve as the interim head coach for the 2023 Armed Forces Bowl.

Offensively, the Dukes had an even split of pass (50.5%) and run (49.5%) plays. James Madison completed 67.8% of their attempts this season, a top-15 mark nationally. They averaged 8.7 YPA. The 33 passing touchdowns was the 8th most in the country. James Madison averaged 35.6 run attempts per game and averaged 4 YPC.

Defensively, teams had to rely on the air attack to score on the Dukes. James Madison saw 37.8 pass attempts per game; only Washington saw more attempts per game. Opposing quarterbacks completed 60.6% of their attempts for 7.1 YPA. The Dukes did for 13 interceptions this year. On the ground, no one was better than James Madison at stopping the run. They saw just 29.4 run plays per game, and allowed 2.1 YPC. The 2.1 YPC was the lowest mark in the country.

Opt Outs: N/A

Injuries:

LT Tyshawn Wyatt

Starting LT

DE Jalen Green

2023 Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year. 2023 All-Sun Belt First Team Defense. 15.5 sacks led the team and was 2nd nationally. 50 tackles (24 solo) ranked 5th on the team. One interception and one pass breakup; returned the interception for a touchdown. Forced two fumbles

Transfer Portal Departures:

QB Jordan McCloud

2023 Sun Belt Player of the Year. 2023 All-Sun Belt First Team Offense. The Arizona transfer completed 68.9% of his attempts and averaged 9 YPA. 32 touchdowns to nine interceptions. Added 107 carries for 433 yards (net sack yards) and eight touchdowns. McCloud, along with others in the portal, are expected to play in the board game

OT Tyler Stephens

2023 All-Sun Belt Second Team Offense. Starting RT; moved over to LT after Wyatt’s season-ending injury

DL Mikail Kamara

2023 All-Sun Belt Second Team Defense. 3rd on the team with 51 tackles (28 solo) and 7.5 sacks. Forced four fumbles and had two pass breakups.

DL James Carpenter

2023 All-Sun Belt Second Team Defense. 48 total tackles (17 solo). Added four sacks, three pass breakups, an interception and forced fumble; recovered two fumbles

LB Aiden Fisher

2023 All-Sun Belt Third Team Defense. Led the team with 91 total tackles (38 solo). Six pass breakups, 1.5 sacks, and an interception

LB Jailin Walker

2023 All-Sun Belt Honorable Mention. 2nd on the team with 55 total tackles (29 solo). 1.5 sacks, four pass breakups and three forced fumbles

RB Ty Son Lawton

LB Taurus Jones

CB Chauncey Logan

Player to Know:

#13 WR Elijah Sarratt

2023 All-Sun Belt First Team Offense. Led the team with 74 receptions for 1,076 yards; added eight touchdowns

#1 WR Reggie Brown

2023 All-Sun Belt First Team Offense. Led the team with nine touchdowns; 51 receptions for 1,010 yards were both 2nd on the team

#9 DL Jamree Kromah

2023 All-Sun Belt First Team Defense. 10 sacks was 2nd on the team

Bowl Game Trends:

• 2023 Armed Forces Bowl: Military academies are 7-5 in this bowl; won in last four appearances
• Air Force: 7-5 in bowl games under Troy Calhoun; winners of L4 and 5-1 in L6
• James Madison: First FBS bowl game

Game Synopsis:

A lot is up in the air with this game at the moment. It is believed most players in the transfer portal from James Madison will play in this game. Air Force is coming off a four game losing streak and quarterback Zac Larrier is uncertain for the bowl game. If this remains true, I like the Dukes.

However, if Larrier does play and we see only a partial game from those Dukes in the transfer portal, it changes completely. But this could update hours before kickoff if news breaks. For the time being, I’ll take James Madison to win the 2023 Armed Forces Bowl for their first FBS bowl victory.

Bowl Mania Pick To Win: James Madison

Bowl Mania Confidence: 3/43

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