Bestball Quick Hits: Hold Your Nose and Draft This Value RB
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Devin Singletary, Bills
ADP: 174.9 (RB54)
At this point in 2021 bestball szn, Devin Singletary is my highest owned player on Underdog. That’s right, Devin freakin Singletary. Pretty gross, right?
In fact, I’m not really a fan of Singletary at all (is anyone at this point?), but given the fact that he’s currently part of a two-headed backfield on one of the most explosive and high scoring teams in the league, it’s absurd that he’s currently available in the 15th round. There are surely several reasons not to like him infantasy this year relative to previous year’s expectations, but at this point his range of outcomes for 2021 are not reflected at all in his ADP.
Singletary finished as RB32 in 2020 while mostly splitting with Zack Moss, who played 13 of 16 games. After an efficient rookie season where he scored 12 FPOE (fantasy points over expectation), Singletary scored -17.8 FPOE in 2020, finishing as a middling RB3 in fantasy. It was incredibly frustrating for fantasy owners to see the Bills’ offense explode yet rarely see him reap the benefits, with an unexpectedly high pass ratio (62% in neutral game script) and Josh Allen stealing goal line opportunities from the running backs.
It’s important, however, to not let those emotions cloud our judgement of the situation going forward. Rushing efficiency is not sticky year-to-year; we shouldn’t be down on a player based solely on previous year efficiency unless they’re past the age apex or there’s major injury concerns going forward, neither of which are the case with Singletary. And the Bills’ pass rate isvery likely to regress in 2021.
Though Singletary and Moss seem to have survived the free agency period, there is also the potential threat of Buffalo adding a running back in the draft. According to Grinding the Mocks, only around 26% of mocks have the Buffalo Bills selecting a running back on Day 1 or 2 of the NFL Draft.
With only five or six rookie running backs currently projected in the first three rounds, and the fact that the Bills have already invested in the position in the previous two drafts, I would concur that they’re more likely than not to forego an early round investment this year, even despite recent rumblings from people like Peter King that they could have interest in Travis Etienne in the first round. This is definitely his most significant threat though, as if they were to draft someone like Etienne Najee Harris, he would be instantly relegated to backup or handcuff duties. Thankfully, that’s already around the range where he’s being drafted!
Many are also anticipating that Zack Moss (129 ADP) is expected to operate as the team’s 1A back in 2021, sliding Singletary into a 1B role. I don’t necessarily have any doubts that this is what Buffalo wants to do, but again, at this point we should he ecstatic to have a back in a near-even timeshare on this offense in the 15th round. Not to mention, Zack Moss is recovering from an ankle surgery he had in January.
Out of the two, Singletary is the back with the better receiving profile. From Week 6 until the end of the season (after Moss returned from injury), Singletary’s expected receiving points were 42.2 to Moss’s 20.1, and his overall expected points were also higher at 95.1 to 79.2. If the Bills were to funnel more of the offense through the running backs, Singletary is set to benefit greatly, though this isn’t even a necessity at his ADP.
Now is the best time to go and get Singletary in drafts. RB54 has got to be the bottom for his value unless you think the Bills dotake a running back with significant draft capital for the third straight year. If not, his ADP is surely set to increase a bit after the NFL Draft when we can confirm his standing on the Bills’ depth chart. I’m currently forcing myself pump the brakes on my Singletary exposure, but the arguments against him are simply not enough to justify his depressed cost.
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