Play vs Us On Underdog! Use Promo-Code: YARDSPER for a 100% deposit match up to $100
Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears head to the Motor City to take on Dan Campbell’s Detroit Lions. The Lions are fighting for a playoffs spot, while the Bears are in line to secure a top pick in the upcoming draft. From a big picture, this game is the embodiment of two opponents with dueling incentives. For our purposes, there’s some nice matchups to take advantage of. Let’s break it all down.
Both defenses help explain why this game’s total (52.5) and Detroit’s implied total (29.25) are the highest of Week 17’s slate, respectively.
The NFC North squads previously faced off in Week 10, as the Lions went on to secure a 31-30 victory.
Chicago had control of this one pretty comfortably, especially throughout the second-half, but Detroit strung together some big plays (and generous calls), which led to Dan Campbell’s first road-victory as a head coach.
Jared Goff finished outside the Top-20 at his position, but a lot has changed over the last couple months. In that game, he had just 26 pass attempts. In 5 of the last 6 since, he’s thrown north of 35 per contest.
According to PFF data, Goff averages 0.54 points/dropback from a clean pocket, ranking third behind Tua Tagovailoa (0.57) and Patrick Mahomes (0.56). The Bears have the worst PFF team pass rush grade this season at 53.8. All of this combines to make a recipe for efficiency.
What we can make of the previous matchup is that Detroit simply took advantage of a mismatch in the trenches, and it makes sense. Chicago has given up the second-most touchdowns to RB’s on the ground (16), and allowed 5 YPC to the position, bottom-five in the NFL according to The Edge.
RB Jamaal Williams has an absurd 27 carries inside the five yard line this season, by far the league’s highest. Considering he hasn’t scored in three straight contests, positive regression and his control of the goaline are important to keep in mind.
For the Bears, Justin Fields will be the obvious top play. In Week 10, he finished as the fantasy QB1 with over 40 PPR points. The Lions have given up the most fantasy PPG (23.5) and rushing yards (558) to quarterbacks… I think you can paint the picture.
WR Darnell Mooney is out for the year, and Chase Claypool/Equanimeous St. Brown have both been limited at practice. Considering the injuries, game total, and favorable pace of play from each offense, it leads to TE Cole Kmet getting the nod on Sunday.
Over the last month, Kmet leads the Bears in targets/yards, but hasn’t caught a touchdown. The last time he scored at all was (surprise) in Week 10 against the Lions, catching a pair of them and finishing as the fantasy TE1. Detroit has given up the most touchdowns and fantasy points to in-line TE’s this season (The Edge). Not too shabby if you’ve got Kmet in DFS lineups this week.
Of the 8 games played at Ford Field this season, 7 finished with a total greater than 50 points. The Lions are coming off back-to-back road losses, and the Bears would love to seek revenge after allowing 21 points in the 4th quarter during their previous matchup. This game has the potential for big plays and some serious fireworks.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week!
