Antonio Gibson & The Week 13 Rookie Stock Update

Antonio Gibson RB1: Week 13 Rookie Stock Update

What a crazy, crazy week. A thanksgiving game that was eventually played 6 days later while everyone was still at work, and a game with no real quarterbacks playing (sorry Taysom, I know you’re not a real quarterback and you know you’re not a real quarterback). Antonio Gibson finally announced himself to the world in primetime and he’s staking his claim for league-winner status heading in to the home stretch. Meanwhile Jerry Jeudy is promising to never complain about Drew Lock ever again.

As always, I’m going to look at how the opportunities are developing for the rookies and speculate on their outlook for the rest of the season.

For the rest of the season, I’m also going to note the remaining fixtures (up to week 16) as we sprint towards fantasy playoff time.

Here is the Week 13 rookie stock update.

Starters

Quarterback

Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert

52 – his career high in pass attempts, topping his previous high of 49 in weeks 3 and 11
60-percent – unlike in weeks 3 and 11 where he had over a 70-percent completion rate on those high totals, in week 12 he dipped under 60-percent for only the second time
4.3 – his intended air yards per attempt (IAY/A) was at a career low 4.3 yards, reflective of Austin Ekeler being his favourite target in this one
Remaining Schedule – New England, Atlanta, at Las Vegas, Denver

Outlook: A disappointing fantasy return by the high-standards he’s set already, but that’s a hell of a floor. Don’t waver or doubt it, keep putting him in your lineup with confidence

Running Back

Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Jonathan Taylor (COVID-IR)
Antonio Gibson
Joshua Kelley
D’Andre Swift (Injured)
JK Dobbins (COVID-IR)
James Robinson
Cam Akers
Zack Moss

*Clyde Edwards-Helaire*
Snaps	47 (59-percent)	Last Week: 40 (51-percent)
Carries	11 (55-percent)	Last Week: 14 (52-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	0 (team total = 0)	Last Week: 3 (60-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	0 (team total = 0)	Last Week: 1 (33-percent of team total)
Targets	1 (2-percent)	Last Week: 2 (4-percent of team total)

12 – with 11 carries and 1 target, his 12 total opportunities is not enough to get the job done and he hasn’t had more than 16 opportunities since week 6
Redzone – it’s not you, it’s me. Or in this case, it’s not Clyde it’s KC. They just don’t run in the redzone and that hurts his upside
Remaining schedule – Denver, at Miami, at New Orleans, Atlanta

Outlook: He still leads the backfield but it’s a low volume backfield on a team that is happier throwing the ball (and why wouldn’t you when you have those weapons). He’s still in the RB2 range but he needs touchdowns

*Antonio Gibson*
Snaps	45 (65-percent)	Last Week: 33 (53-percent of team total)
Carries	20 (56-percent)	Last Week: 16 (47-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	3 (75-percent)	Last Week: 5 (63-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	3 (100-percent)	Last Week: 3 (75-percent of team total)
Targets	7 (26-percent)	Last Week: 2 (8-percent of team total)

45 – his 45 snaps is his highest of the season and the first time since week 2 that he hasn’t played between 25 and 33 snaps in a game. They finally unleashed him in this game and boy did it pay off with 3 touchdowns and 136 total yards
Gamescript – his 27 opportunities was a career high but once again, it was a positive gamescript. We’ve seen that when they’re behind they turn back to McKissic but with this production, I’m now hoping that they start to use him more in those scenarios as well
Remaining schedule – at Pittsburgh, at San Francisco, Seattle, Carolina

Outlook: Given the tough upcoming schedule, Gibson remains an RB2 for me. He’s trending upwards and heading towards that RB1 level if he can stay on the field in those negative gamescripts

*Joshua Kelley*
Snaps	19 (23-percent)	Last Week: 11 (13-percent)
Carries	7 (29-percent)	Last Week: 4 (15-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	3 (38-percent)	Last Week: 1 (25-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	3 (43-percent)	Last Week: 1 (50-percent of team total)
Targets	0	Last Week: 2 (4-percent of team total)

35 – his rushing yardage production was certainly up on the previous week but still only 35 yards including -4 yards on 3 redzone carries
Touchdown – he did get the goal-line touchdown so that’s something, right?
Remaining schedule – New England, Atlanta, at Las Vegas, Denver

Outlook: Great that he got a touchdown but don’t let that fool you. He’s a minor part of this offense and not worth owning in redraft, especially with Ekeler back

*James Robinson*
Snaps	63 (97-percent)	Last Week: 41 (71-percent)
Carries	22 (88-percent)	Last Week: 17 (100-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	6 (100-percent)	Last Week: 1 (100-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	5 (100-percent)	Last Week: 0 (team total = 0)
Targets	6 (17-percent)	Last Week: 2 (5-percent of team total)

Workhorse – Robinson continues to be the sole workhorse running back in this Jacksonville team and although he didn’t get 100-percent of carries, he did get all the running back touches and it’s 4 of the last 5 with 20+ carries
Targets – with Luton not really targeting Robinson unless he needed to, it was great for Robinson managers to see a different Quarterback under centre. Glennon targeted Robinson 17-percent of the time, which was second on the team
Remaining schedule – at Minnesota, Tennessee, at Baltimore, Chicago

Outlook: Keep playing Robinson with confidence as an RB1. But temper your expectations when it comes to playoff time, that schedule is brutal

*Cam Akers*
Snaps	17 (27-percent)	Last Week: 12 (17-percent)
Carries	9 (32-percent)	Last Week: 5 (25-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	2 (100-percent)	Last Week: 0
Opp 1-10 carries	2 (100-percent)	Last Week: 0
Targets	0	Last Week: 1 (2-percent of team total)

84 – 84 yards and a touchdown is his best production of the year so far, but only came on 9 carries and 27-percent of snaps
3 headed monster – the bad news is the three-way split amongst this backfield and for Akers, there is a severe lack of targets that hurts him. The good news is that Akers pretty much had the backfield to himself in the second half and got the redzone work
Remaining schedule – at Arizona, New England, New York Jets, at Seattle

Outlook: The second half usage is a promising sign and has many thinking it could be the start of something. It could be and if you have a spare bench spot then you can stash him there. But his usage is not enough for my liking and I’m not rushing to get him anywhere

*Zack Moss*
Snaps	37 (60-percent)	Last Week: BYE
Carries	9 (30-percent)	Last Week: BYE
Redzone carries	1 (25-percent)	Last Week: BYE
Opp 1-10 carries	1 (50-percent)	Last Week: BYE
Targets	2 (8-percent)	Last Week: BYE

60-percent – that’s his highest percentage of the season but if you look at pure snap counts, he’s right around where he has been for 5 weeks now
Singletary – his teammate out-carried him and out-targeted him. This backfield is a straight-up split on a team that’s inefficient running the ball and has Josh Allen taking away goal-line looks
Remaining schedule – at San Francisco, Pittsburgh, at Denver, at New England

Outlook: He’s not getting enough volume and this ground-game isn’t efficient. Now sprinkle in that unpleasant schedule and it’s hands-off for me

Wide Receiver

Jerry Jeudy
CeeDee Lamb
Brandon Aiyuk (COVID-IR)
Justin Jefferson
Tee Higgins
Henry Ruggs
Chase Claypool
Denzel Mims
KJ Hamler
Jalen Reagor
Michael Pittman Jr
Gabriel Davis
Bryan Edwards

Jerry Jeudy

Kendall Hinton – need I say more? The Broncos didn’t have a real Quarterback in week 12 so we can’t take anything away from this one
Remaining Schedule – at Kansas City, at Carolina, Buffalo, at Los Angeles Chargers

Outlook: Nothing to take from this one but to reiterate what I’ve been saying in previous weeks – he’s getting lots of targets and the talent is there but there’s not enough production to warrant playing him even when he does have a Quarterback

CeeDee Lamb

7 targets – that’s a 20-percent target share and only one behind Cooper and Gallup. The ball is being spread around the three of them just like we thought it would be to start the season
21 rec yards – despite the targets, 21 yards is not going to be enough for Lamb and you’re going to need a touchdown from him to rescue your week if you play him
Remaining Schedule – at Baltimore, at Cincinnati, San Francisco, Philadelphia

Outlook: He’s a touchdown or bust flex play at this stage

Justin Jefferson

13 targets – well it helps when your running mate is out with Covid but that’s Jefferson’s career high and led to 2 touchdowns
53.8-percent catch rate – unfortunately that’s the lowest of his Minnesota career so far but with that volume of targets, it wasn’t a problem. He turned it in to 70 yards so would have hoped to have done better there
Remaining schedule – Jacksonville, at Tampa Bay, Chicago, at New Orleans

Outlook: He’s a little tricky to assess. He’s playing like a stud and you can’t sit him at this point. But temper your expectations when Thielen and Irv Smith come back in to the side, and with the potential for Minnesota’s passing volume to dip at a moments notice

Week 12 One-to-Watch: Tee Higgins

Tee Higgins

5 targets – for a 17-percent target share. That’s his lowest target volume since week 7 and doesn’t bode well for life with Brandon Allen under centre
Touchdown – he saved his week with a late touchdown and while that’s unpredictable, he does always pose a threat in the redzone
Remaining schedule – at Miami, Dallas, Pittsburgh, at Houston

Outlook: He’s in the WR3 conversation for now and don’t be surprised to see him struggle against Miami in week 13 before some nicer fixtures running in to the end of the season

Henry Ruggs

5 targets – his joint highest of the season and while it’s not an exciting number it is positive to see an uptick from previous weeks
56 yards – his second highest of the season and was probably reflective of the Raiders’ desperation to play catch-up and start slinging the ball
Remaining schedule – at New York Jets, Indianapolis, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami

Outlook: It’s nice to see an uptick but you seriously cannot trust him and he shouldn’t be on your rosters at this stage

Chase Claypool

9 targets – with such a pass-heavy team, that’s an 18-percent market share and joint third on the team. That’s also a pace of 157 targets based on the last five games (with the rest of the pass-catchers fit and playing)
0 touchdowns – for a rookie who got 10 touchdowns through his first 10 games, it would be harsh to pick on him for having a game without a touchdown. But his yardage totals haven’t been great and it’s the touchdowns that have made him pay off. This is the kind of performance you can expect if he doesn’t hit the end zone
Remaining schedule – Washington, at Buffalo, at Cincinnati, Indianapolis

Outlook: His yardage totals are still too low to trust him too much but you can put him in as a low-end WR2 with touchdown upside

Denzel Mims

8 targets – that’s three games in a row now of 7 or 8 targets and three games in a row where he’s led the team in targets, with both Joe Flacco and Sam Darnold throwing the ball
67 yards – unfortunately, he still plays for the Jets so his target volume isn’t enough to turn it into useful fantasy production
Remaining schedule – Las Vegas, at Seattle, at Los Angeles Rams, Cleveland

Outlook: Mims continues to be an upside play in 3-receiver leagues only at this stage, although a nice long-term outlook if they can get a competent coach next season and perhaps a shiny new rookie Quarterback

KJ Hamler

Kendall Hinton – Hamler had the same lack of Quarterback issues that I talked about for Jeudy above, can’t put that on the rookie
Remaining Schedule – at Kansas City, at Carolina, Buffalo, at Los Angeles Chargers

Outlook: Even with a real-life Quarterback, this offense isn’t producing enough attacking returns to make any of their pass-catchers worth owning in all but deeper redraft leagues

Jalen Reagor

61-percent of snaps – that’s a significant dip on his previous games and not at all what we want from a rookie receiver. Remarkably, this was second on his team at the wide receiver position
11 yards – on 7 targets for 3 receptions, with a 42.9-percent catch rate and 3.67 yards per reception. Wasn’t he supposed to be the big play guy?!
Remaining schedule – at Green Bay, New Orleans, at Arizona, at Dallas

Outlook: This team is an absolute mess and I don’t want any part of those wide receivers, rookie or otherwise

Michael Pittman Jr

9 targets – not a big game on the stat sheet but he did get a career high 9 targets. Unfortunately, he only caught 2 of them for 28 yards
86-percent of snaps – that’s solid as a rock and coupled with the targets, it’s a positive outlook for future production
Remaining schedule – at Houston, at Las Vegas, Houston, at Pittsburgh

Outlook: Some nice match-ups down the stretch and the target volume is intriguing but I still don’t see him as anything more than a WR3 for now

Gabriel Davis

97-percent of snaps – with John Brown on IR, Davis got on the field plenty
79 yards – 4 targets and 3 receptions in addition to his 4th touchdown of the year
Remaining schedule – at San Francisco, Pittsburgh, at Denver, at New England

Outlook: I was going to relegate him to the backup category but he’s in play with Brown out. I wouldn’t get too hot and bothered but he’s a deep shot and a cheap DFS play

Laviska Shenault

91-percent of snaps – that’s his career high now that he’s fully fit and other players have dropped around him
31 yards – despite those injuries around him, he still only managed 3 catches for 31 yards off 4 targets
Remaining schedule – at Minnesota, Tennessee, at Baltimore, Chicago

Outlook: No need to roster him in redraft this season

Injury Issues

Joe Burrow (QB)
Tua Tagovailoa (QB)
Darrynton Evans (RB)
D’Andre Swift (RB)
Jonathan Taylor (RB)
La’Mical Perine (RB)
Brandon Aiyuk (WR)

Backup – not this year without an injury

Jordan Love (QB) – inactive
Jalen Hurts (QB) – 2 snaps, 1 completed pass for 6 yards. Despite rumours that he was going to get more playing time and the incumbent continuing to struggle
Jacob Eason (QB) – inactive
James Morgan (QB) – inactive
Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB) – inactive
Anthony McFarland Jr (RB) – 3 carries for 9 yards, 1 target for 1 catch and 17 yards
DeeJay Dallas (RB) – 18 special teams snaps only
AJ Dillon (RB) – COVID-IR still
Lynn Bowden (RB) – 22 snaps (career high by a long way), 1 target, 0 catches
Devin Duvernay (WR) – 2 targets for 3 catches and 20 yards
Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR) – Injured Reserve
Quintez Cephus (WR) – 25 snaps, 2 targets for 2 catches and 27 yards
Van Jefferson (WR) – rewarded for his week 11 touchdown with 0 offensive snaps….
Bryan Edwards (WR) – 19 snaps, 2 targets for 1 catch and 15 yards

Special Tight End Category

Devin Asiasi – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
Cole Kmet – 54 snaps, 3 targets for 1 catch and 8 yards. Not fantasy relevant
Josiah Deguara – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
Dalton Keene – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
Adam Trautman – 39 snaps, 1 target for 1 catch and 8 yards. Not fantasy relevant
Harrison Bryant – 42 snaps, 2 targets for 1 catch and 13 yards. Not fantasy relevant
Albert Okwuegbunam – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
Colby Parkinson – 11 snaps, only the 2nd time this season on the field. Not fantasy relevant
Brycen Hopkins – active for only the second time this season. 10 special teams snaps only. Not fantasy relevant

Start, Stash or Stink

Not including the injured and obvious backup guys, here’s who you can Start, who you should Stash on your bench and who should be Stinking up the waiver wire.

Start

Quarterback – Justin Herbert

Running Back – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Antonio Gibson, D’Andre Swift, James Robinson, JK Dobbins

Wide Receiver – Justin Jefferson, Chase Claypool, Brandon Aiyuk, CeeDee Lamb

Tight End – N/A

Stash

Quarterback – Tua Tagovailoa

Running Back – Zack Moss, Jonathan Taylor

Wide Receiver – Tee Higgins, Laviska Shenault, Denzel Mims, Jalen Reagor, KJ Hamler, Michael Pittman Jr, Jerry Jeudy