An Efficiency Machine: Why Brock Purdy is The Best Value In 2024 Fantasy Football
Why Brock Purdy Is An Early Value In 2024 Fantasy Football
Brock Purdy, who went almost undrafted across fantasy leagues last season, will be an optimal value pick in 2024. The former Mr Irrelevant quickly shed that label with his outstanding performance in 2023, which culminated in a Pro-Bowl selection, NFC Championship, and a Super Bowl appearance. To say Purdy exceeded expectations would be an understatement. Managers that were able to pick up Purdy last year struck gold.
An Efficient Machine
Brock Purdy already ranks among elite quarterbacks from a pure statistical standpoint. Purdy finished the season fifth in passing yards, threw 31 touchdowns, and had a completion percentage of almost 70 percent. He’s also tremendously underrated when it comes to his rushing abilities. He’s no Lamar Jackson, but his deceptive elusiveness, athleticism, and ability to create with his legs is evident and wreaks havoc on defenses.
One area Purdy is remarkable in that makes him stand out from the rest however, is his efficiency. Purdy was rated #1 in Yards per pass attempt, #1 in Deep Ball completion percentage (55.3%) and #2 in red zone completion percentage (70.4%), respectively, according to PlayerProfiler.com. Additionally, Purdy accomplished an amazing feat, leading all NFL Quarterbacks in Total QBR last season, ahead of the likes of other elite QBs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen. He also was #1 in EPA (Extra Points Added, which measures the difference in expected points from one play to the next). When it comes to efficiency, Purdy is in a league of his own.
This graph, courtesy of @benbbaldwin, highlights exactly how efficient Brock Purdy was in 2023, and how much distance he put between himself and his counterparts when evaluating early down vs late down efficiency:
Via @benbbaldwin
This was only Purdy second full year as a starter, and it’s coming off a heartbreaking SB loss to the Chiefs. Purdy had an impressive year- but the loss will undoubtedly light a fire under him to improve and build on the previous years success. The 49ers Super Bowl chances rest squarely on his shoulders- and it’s up to Brock to deliver and get the 49ers over that Super Bowl Champion hump. The 49ers have also built a roster that puts Purdy in a great position to succeed and compete for another championship by keeping their core intact, while adding weapons to address team weaknesses that plagued them in the Super Bowl, such has receiver separation, and depth in the secondary.
A Closer Look
So the Question remains… If stats, performance, and metrics hold Brock Purdy in the NFL Fantasy elite (Allen, Jackson Mahomes)- why don’t Fantasy managers? Let’s examine Patrick Mahomes, for example. Patrick Mahomes consensus ADP is consistently around the 4th round or so. Last season however, Mahomes finished outside the top 5 in fantasy scoring for quarterbacks. Brock Purdy barely finished outside the top 5-however he finished sixth to Mahomes eighth in fantasy scoring last season.
Via FantasyPros
Yet, if we examine Brock Purdy’s ADP, it shows him being drafted as late as the ninth and tenth rounds. This begs us to consider why there is such a large disparity between the two regarding their projected draft positioning. Should there be such a large disparity? Now, Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes. No one is denying that the 3 time Super Bowl Champion is far and away the NFL’s best quarterback from a pure talent standpoint, and is a generational talent in his own right. But if were evaluating purely off performance alone, is picking Brock Purdy in the 9th or 10th round far more valuable than picking Patrick Mahomes in the 4th?
Better yet, can we truly say that picking Mahomes in the 4th round holds significantly more value than picking up Purdy as late round gem? Fantasy wise, the numbers speak for themselves. Based on his current projected ADP, Brock Purdy will be a steal, and is the better value pick. He should, at the very least, be held in the same conversation as the NFLs elite fantasy quarterbacks.
My prediction: Purdy will break through and be among the top 5 rated QBs in fantasy in 2024.
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