AJ Dillon: 2020 Dynasty Rookie Profile
Position: RB
School: Boston College
Class: Junior
Date of Birth: May 2, 1998
Height: 6-0 Weight: 247lbs
Athletic Testing
40-Time: 4.53
Speed Score: 117.3 (97th-percentile)
Burst Score: 135.2 (97th-percentile)
Bench Press: 23 (74th-percentile)
Bio
Before dominating for three years at Boston College, Algiers Jameal “A.J.” William Dillon tore up the high school gridiron at Lawrence Academy in Connecticut. He rushed for 1,887 yards and 26 touchdowns as a junior and more than 600 yards and 12 touchdowns in four games his senior season before suffering a season-ending fractured fibula. Dillon originally committed to Michigan as a three-star recruit but opted to stay closer to home and chose Boston College instead.
See Where AJ Dillon Lands In Our 2020 Dynasty Rookie Rankings
Dillon carried the ball 300 times for 1,589 yards (5.3 YPC) and 14 touchdowns with no receptions as a freshman. His yardage total ranked seventh in the FBS and earned him ACC Rookie of the Year and Freshman All-American honors. In 10 games as a sophomore, Dillon carried 227 times for 1,108 yards (4.9 YPC) and 10 touchdowns with eight receptions for 41 yards, earning a first-team all-conference selection. Dillon continued to carry the BC offense in 2019, finishing with the third-most carries (318) and the eighth most yards from scrimmage (1,880) in college football. More than 1,100 of his 1,685 rushing yards came after contact, per PFF. He saw an uptick in receiving production with 195 yards and a touchdown on 13 receptions. He was named third-team Associated Press All-American and a first-team All-ACC selection.
Dillon chose not to play in the team’s bowl game and instead focus on preparing for the draft process. It turns out that that paid off as he put up one of the most impressive performances at the NFL Combine. At 6-0, 247-pounds, Dillon ran a 4.53 40-yard dash (97th-percentile Speed Score) and jumped 41.0-inches in the vertical and 131.0-inches in the broad jump, good for a 135.2 (97th-percentile) Burst Score.
College Stats
AJ Dillon College Stats Courtesy of sports-reference.com
Positives
+117.3 (97th-percentile) Speed Score
+135.2 (97th-percentile) Burst Score
+34.8-percent (81st-percentile) Dominator
+33.5 (96th-percentile) BMI
+Can handle heavy workloads
+150-plus rushing yards in nearly 42-percent of his career starts
+39 career rushing touchdowns
Negatives
-5.3 YPC (40th-percentile)
-5.9-percent (32nd-percentile) Target Share
-Not a natural pass-catcher; 21 receptions in three seasons
-Three drops on 24 career catchable targets
-Lacks agility; 4th-percentile Agility Score
Highlight Reel
Best Comparable Player (PlayerProfiler): Steven Jackson
NFL Draft Projection: Fourth Round
Top-10 RB Speed Scores with official 40-times. #NFLCombine
Jonathan Taylor (4.41) 119.50 🍆
A.J. Dillon(4.53) 117.31👀
Cam Akers (4.47) 108.71Darrynton Evans(4.42) 106.37
Anthony McFarland (4.45) 106.08
(1/2)— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) February 29, 2020
Bottom Line:
Dillon shocked the fantasy and draft community with his impressive combination of size, speed, and explosion in the drills at the Combine. Put that together with his dominance over three seasons at Boston College and we have ourselves a fast-riser up draft boards. Of course, that rise is capped by the major red flag that is his lack of production in the passing game. Dillon failed to display natural abilities as a pass-catcher at Boston College with just 21 receptions in three seasons.
Many have compared him to Derrick Henry, who caught just 17 passes in his Alabama career, but even Henry has to lead the league in rushing on one of the few remaining run-first offenses to be a top-scorer in PPR formats. Henry is Dillon’s absolute ceiling in a wide range of outcomes. We can’t count on him hitting that. After all, there is only one Derrick Henry. Therefore, we must also consider the floor which is a one-dimensional short-yardage specialist. If I had to bet, I would place Dillon somewhere in between. A solid two-down starter that shares a backfield with a pass-catching savant. Draft capital will be key and Dillon is likely to see his name called in the middle rounds. Consider him a solid mid-late second round pick in rookie drafts and hope he hits the over.
Resources: DLF, PlayerProfiler, NFL.com, PFF
