Yahoo! vs ESPN ADP: Wide Receivers
We’re well in to draft season now and with one full weekend to go before the start of the season (at last!), the more casual drafters are starting to get their player lists together and work out who they want to draft. The even more casual drafters are going to rock up to the draft and just draft straight off the standard draft rankings in whichever platform they’re using.
With that in mind, I’ve looked into Yahoo and ESPN to pick out some of the key differences in the current ADP for wide receivers. I’ve also compared them to the industry experts and my own rankings for this year.
Why do this? Well, drafting is all about value and if you can identify the values in your draft then you’re going to have a leg-up on your league-mates. And if you have multiple leagues then, like me, you may be using both platforms this year. Knowing the nuances of the two different systems can really help when it comes to draft day and I for one am going to use this to influence my draft.
I examined running backs in part one of this series so if you missed it, go back and give it a read.
In part two of this series, we’re into the ADP for wide receivers on ESPN and Yahoo!. Enjoy.
DeAndre Hopkins
- Yahoo WR5
- ESPN WR2
- Yardsper Current Ranking WR8
- FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) WR6
- My Current Ranking WR13
Hopkins has spent the last three seasons firmly in the top five at the wide receiver position. Before last year, he was at the top of the PPR tree for two consecutive years. But he’s just moved teams and the track record for receivers changing teams is not great.
He has shown he can perform regardless of his quarterback but he’s also going in to an air-raid offense where the coach is likely to put four wide receivers on the field on a regular basis and spread the ball around. There are a lot of good receivers in that team to take targets and he isn’t going to see the 35, 32 or 30-percent target shares that he saw over the last three years in Houston.
Personally, I have him just outside my top-12 but I can see him finishing higher. Where I don’t see him finishing is second among wide receivers where ESPN ADP has him. I can see the value taking him as WR5 on Yahoo but I’d stay away from that WR2 price tag on ESPN.
Davante Adams
- Yahoo WR2
- ESPN WR5
- Yardsper Current Ranking WR2
- FantasyPros ECR WR2
- My Current Ranking WR2
Go back and re-read what I said about Hopkins above, and then flip it. Davante Adams is in the same offense with the same quarterback who has shown that he trusts Adams time and time again. There is no-one else for Rodgers to throw to in this offense and Adams is going to see all the targets he can handle.
Adams finished first in PPR points per game in 2018 and fifth in a tough 2019 where he played through some injury issues and had a low touchdown rate. His target volume coupled with his immense talent and the likely positive touchdown regression (he scored double-digit touchdowns in each of his previous three years) puts him well in the conversation for the first receivers off the board.
ESPN isn’t quite as keen and while there will be differing opinions on his exact spot, WR5 is low for a guy with this level of talent and this level of opportunity. In Yahoo you’ve got to have the conviction to draft him first or second but in ESPN you could an exceptional value as WR5.
EDIT: As we go to publish, Adams’ ADP in ESPN has now risen to WR3. The above advice still stands but it’s not quite as criminal now!
Odell Beckham Jr
- Yahoo WR8
- ESPN WR13
- Yardsper Current Ranking WR15
- FantasyPros ECR WR13
- My Current Ranking WR11
Another polarising receiver, OBJ burnt a lot of fantasy managers last year. He cost you a high pick and he didn’t return value, simple as that. But his talent is still there and he’s admitted to playing through injury for the majority of the 2019 season. He also goes in to the second year of his relationship with his quarterback and gets a new head coach who, lets face it, HAS to be better than the last one.
That said, in Yahoo you’ve got to believe in him. You’ve got to REALLY believe in him, to draft him up at WR8. He’s priced where many believe his talent can get him but without the risk of injury and assuming that the things that knocked him last year will all be better this year. ESPN on the other hand once again have him at a much better value. At WR13, there is a very real possibility of getting him as your second receiver. If I can get OBJ as my third or fourth pick on draft day, I for one would be pretty pleased with that value.
Allen Robinson
- Yahoo WR10
- ESPN WR14
- Yardsper Current Ranking WR6
- FantasyPros ECR WR8
- My Current Ranking WR7
Another player that you can get as a great value in ESPN drafts is Allen Robinson. Here is another receiver who will get all the targets he can handle in Chicago with no significant competition. He finished at WR7 in 2019 yet he’s being drafted at WR10 in Yahoo and WR14 in ESPN. Not only that but his WR7 finish was with only 6 touchdowns, that’s not a lot and could easily increase.
At WR10 in Yahoo, you could be drafting him close to his floor, but at WR14 in ESPN that is an absolute steal.
DJ Moore
- Yahoo WR14
- ESPN WR11
- Yardsper Current Ranking WR5
- FantasyPros ECR WR10
- My Current Ranking WR6
We’re in to a couple of receivers who offer better value on Yahoo now. DJ Moore, like those above him, is expecting to walk in to significant volume in 2020. The Panthers are going to find themselves behind in a LOT of games this year and they’re going to need to throw the ball. Moore got 135 targets in 2019 but only scored 4 touchdowns.
He’s going in to his third year in the league, often the point where wide receivers really show their metal, and a small bump in touchdown luck will easily vault him in to the top 10. By the way, Moore had one of the highest True Catch Rates (taking away those ridiculous uncatchable targets that his terrible quarterbacks were throwing him all year) in the league last year and gets himself a day one improvement at quarterback.
In both platforms, I think Moore could be a value but at WR15 in Yahoo, I’m going to be all over that.
Robert Woods
- Yahoo WR25
- ESPN WR20
- Yardsper Current Ranking WR18
- FantasyPros ECR WR15
- My Current Ranking WR8
This guy is one of the off-season darlings of fantasy football analysts, who will nearly all tell you that he is criminally under-valued. Despite that, he continues to be criminally under-valued.
Woods scored three touchdowns in 2019. Three! And one of those was a rushing score. That’s two receiving touchdowns (I knew you were struggling with that calculation, I’ve got your back). By any stretch, for a player with 139 targets, that is a ridiculously low touchdown rate. No wide receiver above him scored less than 6 receiving touchdowns so if you gave those extra four to Woods as a minimum, he would have finished as WR7. Touchdowns regress, there’s no way he stays that low again in 2020 and he is still the main target (or at least one of the main targets) in his offense.
I’m a little higher on him than some but both Yahoo and ESPN are low. Yahoo are really low. Target Woods on both of these platforms at this price.
Jarvis Landry
- Yahoo WR32
- ESPN WR25
- Yardsper Current Ranking WR24
- FantasyPros ECR WR29
- My Current Ranking WR24
Jamison Crowder
- Yahoo WR47
- ESPN WR38
- Yardsper Current Ranking WR39
- FantasyPros ECR WR39
- My Current Ranking WR25
Finally, I’ll pick out a couple of players with a big difference in the two platforms.
Landry outperforms his ADP every year and for a guy who gets the level of targets he does, he represents a good value wherever you’re drafting. But in Yahoo in particular, he is going a fair amount later and offers even better value than in ESPN.
Similarly for Jamison Crowder, this is a player who is being overlooked everywhere. He’s not a sexy, high-ceiling pick but he is walking in to tremendous volume in his offense and will guarantee you a solid weekly floor. At WR38, ESPN look to be landing him closer to his range of values but at WR48, Yahoo are really low and you can snap him up late in drafts at an absolute bargain price.
Good luck in your drafts, look out for those values and do what you can to exploit these price differentials across the two platforms. If you missed it, read the running backs review and stay tuned for tight ends and quarterbacks coming soon.
