In response to our series on players the Yards Per Fantasy analysts are targeting in 2020, we figured we’d also deliver our players to avoid. Here is what we came up with. Enjoy.
Alex Johnson: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Cardinals
Whoa whoa whoa…DeAndre Hopkins a fade? It can’t be so. Well let me tell you, son, it’s the truth. While Hopkins had been one of the most dominant fantasy producers over the last several years, there are a number of factors that are working against him in 2020.
Volume was the major driver of production for Hopkins during his time in Houston. He averaged 166 targets over the last five seasons. He benefited from the second-highest target share (30.9-percent) among wide receivers in 2019 to record 104 receptions (No.2-T). But his receiving yardage total of 1,165 was his lowest since 2016. Hopkins failed to reach double-digit touchdowns for the first time since 2016. He also saw down numbers in yards per reception (11.2) and yards per target (7.8), ranking 78th and 58th among all wide receivers, respectively.
This isn’t to say he’s lost it or has become a bad receiver. Of course not. And it’s not even the driving force in why I’m off Hopkins for 2020.
See Where DeAndre Hopkins Lands In Our 2020 Fantasy Draft Rankings
So what is?
The biggest is that he is changing teams. It’s been talked about for a few years now that wideouts changing teams see a drop off in production in their first season with their new club. In a study done on RotoViz earlier this year, Jack Miller uncovered that since 2009, there have been 77 wide receivers to average at least 10 fantasy points per game in a season and then change teams. Before they changed teams, these receivers averaged 12.8 fantasy points per game. After the move to a new city, they averaged just 10.6. Only 26-percent improved their per-game fantasy output. And we’ve seen this in recent seasons with Allen Robinson and Odell Beckham not living up to the hype in year-one with their new squad.
The odds are even more stacked against Hopkins as he has to get comfortable with a new quarterback and new environment while facing an abbreviated offseason. He’s leaving a consolidated passing game that centered around him and jumping into a new offense that philosophically spreads the ball around to several playmakers. I’m not saying he will see equal looks as Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald, but be prepared to be disappointed if you’re expecting another 30-percent target share season.
With an ADP in the second round, with many suggesting he will have another top-five season, I’m out on Hopkins for 2020.
Alex Johnson: Raheem Mostert, RB, 49ers
Raheem Mostert is one of the most polarizing figures in the fantasy community. Obviously, considering this article is about players we are avoiding, I’m on the side that Mostert is overvalued and should be faded in 2020. Mostert is being overvalued because he scored a bunch of touchdowns late in the season and that’s what fantasy gamers remember. He benefited from injuries to Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, and Jerick McKinnon which thrust him into the prominent role in the league’s best rushing scheme.
He also took advantage of a highly unsustainable degree of positive game scripts which of course led to more carries. And when the Niners were passing, it wasn’t to Mostert. He caught just 14 passes and had a target share greater than 10-percent just twice while Coleman, who has a history of being a quality receiver, doubled that total. And now he has McKinnon back in the fold who will undoubtedly see a high percentage of the passing downs work.
So he doesn’t catch passes and the rushing volume will be down. And we’re still drafting this guy in the first five rounds? Child please.
Let’s not forget, Mostert came out of nowhere in 2019. He spent his first four seasons bouncing from team-to-team as a special teamer and reserve running back. If he was that good, one of the six teams he was with would have recognized that at some point. Instead, it took until his seventh team and fifth season to find any relevance. That’s not a guy I want to use a pick in the top-half of my draft on.
Alex Johnson: Middle-Round Tight Ends
You want fantasy players to avoid in 2020? How about Darren Waller, Evan Engram, Tyler Higbee, Hayden Hurst, and Hunter Henry. These are the tight ends going in the middle rounds. The approach to the tight position this year is clear—Draft Travis Kelce or George Kittle in the second or third, or wait until the double-digit rounds. There we can take multiple breakout candidates like T.J. Hockenson, Irv Smith Jr., Noah Fant, Mike Gesicki, Jonnu Smith, Ian Thomas, or Chris Herndon. Shall I go on? We can find Blake Jarwin, O.J. Howard, Dawson Knox, and Gerald Everett even later. There’s even Greg Olsen, C.J. Uzomah, Will Dissly, Kyle Rudolph, and Jace Sternberger.
Middle round tight ends bust at a high rate every year. And hitting on a late-round breakout tight end can win leagues. So why are we wasting picks in the middle rounds on this position? Especially this season where these rounds are prime wide receiver territory. Stop drafting middle round tight ends, and start playing winning fantasy football instead.
Ben Keener: Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs
Few receivers, if any, can take the top off the defense with blazing speed like Hill can. However, Tyreek Hill is going off the board at WR3 overall. Hill is the supercharged version of the boom or bust candidate that you want to draft in the 8th round, not the steady WR1 that can get you 18+ points every week. Over the last 2 seasons, when Patrick Mahomes has been his quarterback, Hill has had a higher percentage of his games be less than 15 points than any other “Elite WR1”.
Hill has a fantasy points distribution that closely resembles that of Amari Cooper or Cooper Kupp, receivers going in the third and fourth round, rather than Julio Jones or DeAndre Hopkins, who are being drafted in the second round, after Hill. There’s a blatantly obvious reason for this points distribution too. While the other first and second round receivers have a steady stream of targets week in and week out, Hill’s target share is significantly more volatile. Over the past two years, Tyreek Hill has had only one more week with 10+ targets than he has weeks with five or less targets.
Ultimately, Hill is a risk every week whenever you put him in your lineup, one that should not be taken when concerning a first round pick and WR1 for your team. Hill may finish as a top-12 WR at the end of the season, but the headache it takes to get there is not worth the first round draft capital. The talent is there, but unfortunately for those who take him in the first round, the consistency is not.
Scott Leathley: Daniel Jones, QB, Giants
FantasyPros ADP: QB15
FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings: QB14
YardsPerFantasy Expert Rankings: QB22
My Rankings: QB21
Let me start off by saying I actually do like the future of Daniel Jones in New York. He surprised me how well he played last year after I labeled him as the biggest reach in the 2019 NFL Draft. The weapons Jones has around him makes him an intriguing option for fantasy players. Jones is still being drafted as a QB2 in most leagues and will be a streaming option throughout the year.
One of the biggest things I look at with quarterbacks that are considered to be in this range as streaming options is their schedule to begin the year. I want to get off to a hot start with my quarterback with easy matchups. Easy matchups is the exact opposite of what Jones has in the beginning of the season. Listen to these teams and imagine their defense up against Jones. Pittsburgh Steelers in week one, Chicago Bears in week two, San Francisco 49ers in week three, Los Angeles Rams in week four and the Dallas Cowboys in week five. Is anyone comfortable starting a quarterback during any game of this stretch, yet alone a sophomore QB that struggled with turnovers?
Jones did look promising as a rookie. I can see why someone is anxious to draft Daniel Jones. But don’t. Don’t draft Daniel Jones this year. After that stretch of hard games, the owner of Jones will probably drop him to the waiver wire in hopes to find someone better after Jones disappoints. His schedule after those five games eases up a little bit so there could be some weeks streaming Jones is a good idea. By that time Jones will more than likely be on the waiver wire to grab for a game or two. Overall, I don’t want Jones because of his schedule so I am in on where the YardsPerFantasy experts have them ranked.
Scott Leathley: A.J. Green, WR, Bengals
FantasyPros ADP WR28
FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings WR28
YardsPerFantasy Expert Rankings WR25
My Rankings: WR34
This is simply being risk averse on an older player with a history of injuries. Green’s average draft position is fairly low for a player of his caliber. Which would mean he is a value right? Not in my eyes. There is zero chance Green ends up as the 28th best wide receiver in fantasy this year. If he is healthy and back to the old A.J. Green, he will finish far better than this draft position. On the other hand, he could be washed up and he can experience another injury riddled season. I was staying clear of Green last year for the same reasons I am staying clear of him this year.
Green is on the downswing of his career at 32 years old. We haven’t seen him on the field since 2018. How do we know he hasn’t lost a step since then? He is a year or two past his prime and that’s not even including the various injuries he suffered throughout his career. He is back in a full capacity at training camp but foot injuries are tricky. Even though the injury is in the past, one bad step can put him on the sidelines once again. Green has only played a full 16 game season four times in his career. There’s a less than 50 percent chance that he won’t even play a full season. With his current injury history, the chances are even higher that he will battle with injuries this season. Green will leave fantasy owners frustrated once again this year.
