Critical Draft Day Decision: Todd Gurley Or Chris Godwin?
Redraft season is on the horizon and roster construction is important to your success in season long leagues. Your roster construction starts during the draft and this series will focus on the “this or that” of selecting a position during the draft and what the ramifications of that selection for your team is.
For this exercise, the position group selected with the first picks will be contrasted by the opposite position in the later pick. For example, if you took a RB in round two vs a WR in round two, the round 10 selection would compare taking a WR to pair with your second round RB and vice versa. All ADP is derived from ffcalculator.com and is based on 12 team PPR. Let’s check out part four.
GODWIN OR GURLEY?
Draft breakout star of 2019 WR Chris Godwin or fantasy football legend RB Todd Gurley? At the end of the second round your team is faced with adding an elite WR or an elite RB. For this example, let’s look at selecting Godwin (ADP 23) or Gurley (ADP 24) and what that could mean for your roster construction. Here’s what they did in 2019.
Godwin – T-WR2 (274.1 FP) WR2 (19.6 FP/G)
Gurley – RB14 (221.4 FP) T-RB17 (14.8 FP/G)
Godwin exploded in 2019 and cemented his talents in the upper echelon of NFL WRs. The Bucs had QB Jameis Winston throw for over 5,000 yards and played from behind in most of 2019. Did this boost Godwin’s numbers? With QB Tom Brady heading to Tampa Bay, will the passing yardage decrease? Will Brady prefer WR Mike Evans instead? Brady loves a good slot WR and Godwin can fill that role, but Brady hasn’t had an elite deep threat like Evans since Randy Moss (where Moss broke the single-season TD reception record). Gurley took his lumps for the Rams last season, but still finished as a strong RB2. Many managers feel burned by his production due to his draft position in 2019, but with his ADP decreased for 2020, would Todd Gurley be the perfect RB2 for your team?
WHO TO PAIR?
If you selected Godwin at 23, you could pair him with Kareem Hunt (ADP 55). If you selected Gurley at 24 you could pair him with Keenan Allen (ADP 54). Let’s examine their 2019 seasons.
Related | Kareem Hunt Is The Ultimate Zero RB Target In 2020
Hunt – RB48 (101.4 FP) RB26 (12.7 FP/G)
Allen – WR6 (261.5 FP) WR8 (16.3 FP/G)
Hunt served an eight-game suspension in 2019, so his points per game average is the stat to look at here. Doing most of his damage in the receiving game, Hunt finished as a high-end RB3. Will the addition of new HC Kevin Stefanski drive his receiving volume down? Or will Hunt have a bigger piece of the rushing pie? Allen saw the departure of long-time QB Philip Rivers and now has a QB battle between Tyrod Taylor and first round pick Justin Herbert. Can Allen remain a high floor receiver who sees a ton of targets? Or will the offense shift?
2020 PROJECTIONS
VERDICT
This scenario is exactly why I do this exercise. My heart tells me to take Godwin at the end of the second round and be stoked about getting top 5 WR upside at that spot. Then my brain takes over and see the steep drop off of RBs after the end of the second round. If I pass on Gurley at 24, my RB room could be significantly weaker, and I could be losing a positional advantage of starting my draft with three straight RBs. Keenan Allen’s ADP cements my decision for me. Even if Allen regresses in 2020 due to QB play, he will still finish as a top 16 WR. So I could get a top five WR in Godwin and a mid to low RB2 in Hunt, or I could take a top 15 RB in Gurley and top 16 WR in Allen. Give me Gurley at 23 and Allen at 54.
What do you think? What would you do?
