Derek Carr: The Ultimate SuperFlex QB2
Having a good second quarterback in a Superflex league is so important. The QB24 last season was Jacoby Brisset, who had 222.68 points, better than the overall WR19, RB14, and TE2. If you aren’t starting a QB at your Superflex position, then you’re doing it wrong.
The ultimate superflex QB2 for the 2020 season is the Raiders’ quarterback Derek Carr. His current ADP and ranking has him outside of the top 24 quarterbacks. People are placing him at the same range as lower-tier QBs like Tyrod Taylor, Dwayne Haskins, and Sam Darnold.
Don’t make the same mistake. Carr is set up for the best season of his career. For a guy with back-to-back QB2 finishes, people are fading him fast.
The AFC West Is Stockpiling Weapons
We all know the Chiefs have the most explosive offense in the NFL. Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire to name a few. Paired with the best (and richest) quarterback in the league, the AFC West is already a high-powered division
The Broncos and Chargers are also extremely dangerous. Denver added Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, and Melvin Gordon to Noah Fant and Courtland Sutton. Los Angeles has one of the best-receiving cores in the league across all positions with Austin Ekeler, Hunter Henry, Mike Williams, and Keenan Allen.
To keep up with the rest of their division, the Raiders have added a huge amount of receiving talent. Henry Ruggs can burn any defense at any time on any route. Bryan Edwards is a great big-bodied possession receiver who will help the Raiders get first downs. Darren Waller is still the most athletic tight end in the league. Hunter Renfrow had an amazing first season as a slot receiver, developing outstanding chemistry with Carr. Jason Witten and Foster Moreau are huge red-zone threats that can back-up Waller.
Even at running back, Mike Mayock added Lynn Bowden Jr. who was electrifying in college as a runner, receiver, and passer. Josh Jacobs had a great rookie campaign, leading the league in broken tackles with his ultra-violent running style.
People talk about how the NFC South is going to be full of shootouts. However, it’s really the AFC West that is going to be the wild west, where both passing attempts and touchdowns will be high.
Underrated, Underappreciated, Undervalued
Carr has never really got the respect he deserves. Coming into the league as a second-round pick he was a player that had all the arm talent but lacked decision making and elite awareness. Over his career he has improved on this year after year, becoming more efficient overall. All of this despite dealing with a lackluster receiving core.
Last year, with Waller, Renfrow, and Tyrell Williams, Carr had his second straight 4000-yard-plus season and was in the top-ten for yards-per-attempt (YPA), adjusted YPA, adjusted net yards per attempt and Completion Percentage Above Expectation (CPOE). A few studs behind Carr in CPOE are Matt Ryan, Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson.
The Raiders added Marcus Mariota, who Gruden has raved about, but this is still the same Mariota that got benched for Ryan Tannehill. Mariota never really put it all together, seemingly regressing each year. He’s an insurance policy for Carr, not a replacement.
Everyone other than Carr that was in the top-ten in the same categories are being valued as either a QB1 or a high-end QB2. However, Carr has had the highest amount of talent added to his offense. Waller, Renfrow, Edwards, Ruggs, Bowden, and Jacobs can not have the insane year that people are projecting without Carr having a great year. Whilst all of these guys are being considered fantasy relevant, Carr is being discounted yet again.
Derek Carr Is A High-End QB2 In Superflex
If this was any other quarterback with back-to-back seasons finishing as a top 18 quarterback in the same offense under the same coach with more talent added, fantasy football twitter would be all over this. However, because it is Carr, people are fading him and taking lower-tier players over him. It makes no sense.
Taking a look at his last few years:
- His career average for attempts per game is 35.2 attempts, which comes out to 563 total attempts for the season.
- Under Gruden, his average yards-per-attempt is 7.6 and he has a completion percentage of 69.6
- Add to this an interception rate of 1.7-percent and a TD rate of 3.8-percent, which should increase considering his plethora of weapons
Doesn’t look like the makings of the poor quarterback season, does it? Using these numbers, and increasing his TD rate marginally to 4.3-percent, which is completely reasonable considering it is his career average, his conservative 2020 projections look like:
- 563 attempts for 4279 yards = 171.16 fantasy points
- 24 touchdowns at a rate of 4.3-percent = 96 points
- 9 interceptions at his career average of 1.7-percent = minus-18 points
- Just under 100 yards rushing and touchdown = 6.9 points
- Overall: 256 fantasy points (QB15 in 2019 & QB16 in 2018)
Related | Target These Quarterbacks In 2020 Fantasy Drafts
The major part of this is touchdowns. Carr has cleared or matched a 4.3-percent TD rate in three of his seasons. With the most talented roster he has played on, Carr has a great opportunity to reach the high 20s in touchdowns, up to a 5-percent TD rate.
With Ruggs, Williams, and Waller, Carr has some home-run threats to pair with players comfortable in the red-zone like Renfrow, Witten, and Moreau. Clearing 30 touchdowns is achievable considering he did this already under Jack Del Rio in 2015.
His ceiling is a low-end QB1, which he reached in 2016 when posted a career-low in interceptions. With so many talented receivers and a strong offensive line, Carr could easily end the year with an interception rate lower than 1.5-percent.
See Where Derek Carr Lands In Our Rankings!
Getting a high-end QB2 as one of the last quarterbacks taken in a Superflex league is a big-brain move that will make you look like a genius. Taking Carr below his floor, which is a low-end QB2, is the perfect pick.
A parting message would be that when Carr entered the league, he was noted as having great arm talent and could make all the throws. With some of the fastest players in the league on his team, Carr could stun fantasy football twitter as he pairs his arm with a veterans approach to the game.
