Why You Should Draft Raheem Mostert With Confidence In 2020 Fantasy Football
Whilst playing around on SharpFootballStats, as I usually do, I noticed something outrageous.
Related | The Boldest Predictions For 2020 Fantasy Football
Amongst all running backs with at least 150 carries, Raheem Mostert led the league in both percentage of runs for zero or fewer yards and percentage of runs for ten-plus yards. Only 11-percent of his carries were stuffed at or behind the line. A huge 16-percent of his runs went for at least 10 yards, with as many big runs as Mixon and Saquon. Mostert had the same amount of big-boy runs as David Montgomery and Le’Veon Bell combined. This is over the entire year, whilst playing in a running back committee
When you trim down the season to the last five games, where Mostert got his chance to shine, he is up there with the best of the league (see above). He got stuffed less often than Saquon, Henry and Zeke, whilst also reaching the second level at a higher rate.
See Where Raheem Mostert Lands In Our 2020 Fantasy Draft Rankings!
From Week 12 to the end of the regular season, he was RB8 in PPR leagues whilst having the eleventh-highest average per game. When he got his chance to shine, he made the most of it.
So why is both his ranking and ADP leave him outside of the top 24 running backs?
The Dreaded Runningback Committee
Fantasy football players hate committees. When touches are spread around, people go nuts because whilst it’s good for real life, it can tank a fantasy football contender’s chances of winning the league.
Kyle Shanahan has a notorious reputation for using running back committees. The highest share of rushing attempts over the last two seasons goes to Matt Breida who had 36-percent of the rushing attempts. Last season the attempts were split between three different backs, including Mostert himself.
However, there is a silver lining. Whenever a back has proven himself to be the best, they’ve been fed touches. Carlos Hyde got 240 carries in 2017, good for a 58-percent share. Devonta Freeman had a 54-percent share in 2016 and a 63-percent share in 2015 back when Shanahan was the offensive-coordinator for Atlanta.
When Breida went down, Mostert and Coleman split touches and it looked like Coleman would become the lead back. However, in Week 13 against the Ravens, one of the best in the league, Mostert showed out and cemented his place as top dog. He ran 19 times for 146 yards, an average of nearly 7.7 yards-per-carry, and a touchdown.
Breida returned in Week 14 against the Saints, but he had been replaced. From Week 14 to the end of the regular season, Mostert commanded 59-percent of the carries. He also had 50-percent of the total running-back targets at this time as well.
The stigma around Shanahan’s backs disguises how good he is for running backs. Alfred Morris, a former sixth-rounder, had over 50-percent of the carries in both 2012 and 2013. Morris was an RB2 or better in his three years under Shanahan, reaching RB8 overall in 2012.
Shanahan Knows How To Use An RB
Whilst Morris was a strong fantasy football asset under Shanahan, he fell off the wagon when his coach left. His efficiency disappeared, averaging less than four yards per game, and he only scored one touchdown after averaging nine per year under Shanahan.
Freeman was RB1 overall in 2015, and RB8 overall in 2016. He averaged 11 touchdowns per year playing for Shanahan and was absolutely fed the ball both on the ground and in the air. While he was an RB2 for a year after Shanahan left, Freeman only had nine touchdowns over the next three years.
He even got Isaiah Crowell eight touchdowns and nearly made him into an RB2 on 157 total touches. All of this whilst dealing with the drama reality show that was the 2014 Browns.
Mostert Really Is That Good
Yes, he’s 28. However, he has only had 178 carries in the NFL and 136 at the collegiate level. Initially a receiver, Mostert only switched to being a back in his senior year. His few years bouncing around the league and undrafted status is understandable considering there were growing pains learning the position.
However, he’s always been good at making people miss. As a kick returner at Purdue, Mostert averaged 26 yards-per-return, and in his freshman year, he had 837 return yards over 25 returns, good for an average of 33.5 per return.
He knows how to use his sub-4.4-speed. Back when he was a returner for Cleveland, Miami, and Baltimore in 2015, Mostert averaged 27.9 yards-per-return over 19 returns. This was the sixth-highest average amongst players with at least 15 returns.
The reason why he’s been so damn productive in the Niners’ offense is that he’s incredibly good at reading blocks and blasting through holes. He has a 40-inch vertical and 130-inch-plus broad jump to pair with elite speed, making him a pain to catch. Whenever a gap presents itself, Mostert fires through it, bouncing off bodies and breaking arm tackles.
Give him an inch and he takes a mile. San Francisco had one of the best offensive lines last season. This offseason they added Trent Williams and just extended the best blocking tight end in the league, George Kittle, which means there will be plenty of holes for Mostert to explode through.
2020 Projections
- Over the last five games, Mostert averaged 13 carries and nearly two targets per game, thus an increase of one more carry per game is feasible
- In a full season, this would be 224 carries and 32 targets
- Mostert’s average yards-per-carry only rose as the season went on (5.8 over his last five games), so I’m projecting a conservative average of 5.25 yards per attempt
- The Niners’ offense is incredibly efficient and Mostert was a touchdown machine, going for seven touchdowns in five games
- Ten touchdowns next season as the Niners’ top dog is an easy feat for Mostert to beat
I’m currently projecting Mostert to have:
- 224 carries for 1,176 yards
- 32 targets for 23 receptions and 243 receiving yards
- Ten touchdowns (eight rushing and two receiving)
- Overall: 224.9 fantasy points (RB14 in 2019)
With Shanahan’s creativity and Mostert’s explosiveness, a case could be made for an RB1 finish. However, with conservative projections of just 15 touches a game and his touchdown rate per game halving, he’s a top 15 running back with ease that’s going outside of the top 24.
With his carry and target share over his last five games, Mostert would have had 260-plus carries and over 50 targets. At the same rates as above, he would have placed as RB7 overall. Pick Raheem Mostert in fantasy drafts now before he explodes in 2020.
