Tyler Boyd 2020 Fantasy Value
First off, let me get my bias out of the way. I love Tyler Boyd. As a good friend of mine is a Bengals fan, I’ve watched quite a few games each of the past few years. While I always intend on going into the games trying to find reasons to poke fun at my friend’s misfortune, time and time again I come away impressed with Boyd. His ability to break in and out of cuts, and to get open despite terrible QB play has been fun to watch. With an ADP of WR 35, he presents a tremendous value for drafters in 2020.
Boyd’s Career So Far
As a quick refresher, Tyler Boyd was selected by the Cincinnati Bengals with the 55th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Boyd has three tremendous years at the University of Pittsburgh, totaling 254 receptions for 3,361 yards and 21 touchdowns in three years. After Boyd’s initial struggles in his first two years in the NFL, he burst onto the scene in 2018. In 2018, he totaled 76 receptions on 108 targets for 1,028 yards and 7 touchdowns in just 14 games. This was good enough for a WR 17 finish in PPR scoring formats.
See Tyler Boyd Fantasy Value In Our 2020 WR Rankings!
The next year, he followed up that breakout with an even better season. With AJ Green out for the season, Boyd became a target hog. In 16 games, Boyd received 148 targets, which placed as 7th most in the NFL. Boyd turned that mountain of targets into 90 receptions for 1046 yards and 5 touchdowns. While this wasn’t a tremendous jump from 2018, Boyd struggled for quality targets, as the Bengals were forced to start a poor combination of Andy Dalton and Ryan Finley throughout the season. Now entering his age 26 season, Boyd has established himself as a legitimate threat regardless of who lines up at the QB position.
Why You Aren’t Drafting Tyler Boyd
Competition For Targets
If you aren’t looking to acquire Tyler Boyd at his current ADP of WR 35, your first concern is likely the addition of AJ Green and Tee Higgins back into the offense. While Boyd received plenty of targets, he was not nearly as efficient compared to his 2018 season. With the addition of two viable wide receiver options, Boyd may not receive the dominant target share that he received in 2019.
Rookie QB Issues
Second, Boyd will have to establish rapport with a rookie quarterback for the second year in a row. The Bengals selected Joe Burrow from LSU with the 1st overall pick in 2020. With the uncertainty that this year provides, it may be more difficult than usual to adapt to the NFL for many rookies. As such, Burrow may be scaring drafters off Tyler Boyd more than in a usual NFL off-season.
The Jarvis Landry Effect
However, likely the biggest reason drafters aren’t interested in Boyd has to do with a player on a completely different team. If you hadn’t guessed, I’m talking about the Jarvis Landry Effect. Jarvis Landry has been nothing short of brilliant while being in the NFL. Since 2016, in PPR scoring, Landry finishes are as follows: 13, 5,18, 12. Landry was a WR 1 last year! But his current ADP sits at WR 31. Why is that?
It’s because, as the WR 2 in a weaker offense, Landry appears to have a significantly lower upside than many of those players drafted around him. He received no less than 6 targets in all but one game last season and had a safe floor that players could rely upon. But Landry possesses upside as a reliable WR 2. Last season, Landry scored 14 or more fantasy points in 7 out of 16 games and exploded for 20 or more points 3 times. This included a 36 point performance versus Miami in Week 12. The upside is clearly there, but because the average drafter fails to see it, he falls in value. As a receiver in a very similar situation, Boyd suffers from this same fate.
Why You Should Be Drafting Boyd
What Competition?
Boyd has been nothing short of fantastic in each of the past two seasons. Finishes of WR 17 and WR 18 in the past two years have demonstrated Boyd’s ability to be a safe WR 2 with upside. However, his WR 35 ADP puts him on the WR 3/4 line. This is far too low for the likely target leader in Cincinnati in 2019. In terms of competition, 32-year-old AJ Green has played just 9 games in the past two seasons combined. While Green is a dominant force when healthy, he shouldn’t be a concern for Boyd. In 2018, Boyd was actually more productive with Green in the lineup, averaging nearly two more receptions a game. Boyd’s playstyle is not affected by a dominant WR1, even if Green can re-establish himself after more than a year off from football.
Meanwhile, Boyd himself is a great example of rookie receivers (like Higgins) taking time to adjust to NFL life. Out of the three, Boyd is far and away the most likely to start all sixteen games and will receive a substantial target share, even if it isn’t the 25% target share he received last season.
If Anyone Can Do it, Burrow Can
Yes, Boyd is going to have a rookie QB in 2020. Yes, that rookie will have to deal with a unique offseason as he adjusts to the NFL. But if any rookie can do it, it’s Joe Burrow. As mentioned above, Burrow was selected 1st overall by the Cincinnati Bengals in the 2020 NFL Draft. Burrow is coming off potentially the greatest season a college QB has ever produced. Burrow led LSU to a National Championship title, throwing for 5,671 yards and a whopping sixty touchdowns.
As Burrow had beyond elite production coming into the 2020 NFL season, he is better equipped than most rookie QBs to adjust to the speed of the NFL game quickly. In Boyd’s four years he has had a combination of Andy Dalton, Jeff Driskel, and Ryan Finley throwing the ball. Even if Burrow struggles out of the gate, Burrow possesses upside that none of those QBs posses. It’s entirely possible that rookie Burrow is the best QB that Boyd has ever played with. As such, a new QB is not nearly as much of a concern as it would usually be.
Jarvis 2.0?
While Boyd may be more likely to bust on a particular week, he possesses a similar skillset to Landry, and subsequently, a similar upside. In 2019, Boyd had 13 or more points in 7 of sixteen weeks, including 3 weeks of 20+ points, and one week of 30+ points. This upside doesn’t change because Green comes back, or because Burrow is throwing the ball. In fact, with how injury-prone Green has become, it’s difficult to imagine at this point that he will make it through a full year. Like Landry before him, Boyd has the ability to consistently outperform his ADP as an established WR2 on an up and coming offense.
Conclusion
All in all, Tyler Boyd represents a tremendous value given his current ADP of WR 35. At Yardsperfantasy.com, Boyd currently sits at my WR 26 and finds himself climbing every week. If you go RB early or invest in an early QB or TE, Boyd is a great target for a WR 2, as he has consistently shown he can provide WR 2 numbers with WR 1 upside on any given week. A lot needs to go wrong for Boyd to reach his current ADP. The Jarvis Landry Effect, the perceived competition, and perceived QB issues are all mitigated on closer examination, and all that’s left is a target hog who can ball out. If you draft Tyler Boyd at his 2020 fantasy ADP value, you will not regret it.
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